Reliability assessment of water structures subject to data scarcity using the SCS-CN model

ABSTRACT

When discharge measurements are not available, design of water structures relies on using frequency analysis of rainfall data and applying a rainfall–runoff model to estimate a hydrograph. The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method estimates the design hydrograph first through a rainfall–runoff transformation and next by propagating runoff to the basin outlet via the SCS unit hydrograph (UH) method. The method uses two parameters, the Curve Number (CN) and the time of concentration (T_c). However, in data-scarce areas, the calibration of CN and T_c from nearby gauged watersheds is limited and subject to high uncertainties. Therefore, the inherent uncertainty/variability of the SCS parameters may have considerable ramifications on the safety of design. In this research, a reliability approach is used to evaluate the impact of incorporating the uncertainty of CN and T_c in flood design. The sensitivity of the probabilistic outcome against the uncertainty of input parameters is calculated using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). The results of FORM are compared with the conventional SCS results, taking solely the uncertainty of the rainfall event. The relative importance of the uncertainty of the SCS parameters is also estimated. It is found that the conventional approach, used by many practitioners, might grossly underestimate the risk of failure of water structures, due to neglecting the probabilistic nature of the SCS parameters and especially the Curve Number. The most predominant factors against which the SCS-CN method is highly uncertain are when the average rainfall value is low (less than 20 mm) or its coefficient of variation is not significant (less than 0.5), i.e. when the resulting rainfall at the design return period is low. A case study is presented for Egypt using rainfall data and CN values driven from satellite information, to determine the regions of acceptance of the SCS-CN method.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Efstratiadis     

Assimilation of historical head data to estimate spatial distributions of stream bed and aquifer hydraulic conductivity fields

Management of water resources in alluvial aquifers relies mainly on understanding interactions between hydraulically connected streams and aquifers. Numerical models that simulate this interaction often are used as decision support tools for water resource management. However, the accuracy of numerical predictions relies heavily on unknown system parameters (e.g., streambed conductivity and aquifer hydraulic conductivity), which are spatially heterogeneous and difficult to measure directly. This paper employs an ensemble smoother to invert groundwater level measurements to jointly estimate spatially varying streambed and alluvial aquifer hydraulic conductivity along a 35.6‐km segment of the South Platte River in Northeastern Colorado. The accuracy of the inversion procedure is evaluated using a synthetic experiment and historical groundwater level measurements, with the latter constituting the novelty of this study in the inversion and validation of high‐resolution fields of streambed and aquifer conductivities. Results show that the estimated streambed conductivity field and aquifer conductivity field produce an acceptable agreement between observed and simulated groundwater levels and stream flow rates. The estimated parameter fields are also used to simulate the spatially varying flow exchange between the alluvial aquifer and the stream, which exhibits high spatial variability along the river reach with a maximum average monthly aquifer gain of about 2.3 m³/day and a maximum average monthly aquifer loss of 2.8 m³/day, per unit area of streambed (m²). These results demonstrate that data assimilation inversion provides a reliable and computationally affordable tool to estimate the spatial variability of streambed and aquifer conductivities at high resolution in real‐world systems.     

Linear and stratified sampling-based deep learning models for improving the river streamflow forecasting to mitigate flooding disaster

Natural Hazards - Due to the need to reduce the flooding disaster, river streamflow prediction is required to be enhanced by the aid of deep learning algorithms. To achieve accurate model of...     

A comparison of ASCE and FAO-56 reference evapotranspiration for a 15-min time step in humid climate conditions

Many applications in diverse disciplines require estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) at hourly or smaller time steps. The primary objectives of this study were to compare the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equations for 15-min ET₀ (ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} and ET_0,15-min,FAO) estimations for humid climate conditions and to compare the 24 h sum of ASCE (ET_0,24 h,ASCE) and FAO-56 15-min ET₀ (ET_0,24 h,FAO) with the daily ET₀ (ET_0,d,FAO) computed from the daily FAO-56 equation, which is identical to ASCE daily ET₀ equation. Ten-year, i.e., 1997–2006 continuous 15-min and daily weather data for 11 representative and well-distributed sites throughout Georgia, USA were used. It was evident that during the day, ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} was higher than ET_0,15-min,FAO due to a lower surface resistance parameter value, while at night ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} was lower than ET_0,15-min,FAO due to a higher surface resistance parameter value. The ET_0,15-min,FAO was about 5% less than ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} and ET_0,24 h,FAO was about 5% lower than ET_0,24 h,ASCE. The difference between ET_{0,15-min,ASCE} and ET_0,15-min,FAO during the day and night was highly dependent on wind speed. During the three summer months, i.e., June, July and August, on average, ET_0,24 h,FAO was only 1% higher than ET_0,d,FAO while ET_0,24 h,ASCE was 5% higher than ET_0,d,FAO. For the entire year, ET_0,24 h,FAO was 8% higher than ET_0,d,FAO while ET_0,24 h,ASCE was 13% higher than ET_0,d,FAO. The ET_0,24 h,FAO and ET_0,d,FAO had a better agreement than ET_0,24 h,ASCE and ET_0,d,FAO throughout the year and during the summer months. It is also worth noting that the daily calculations for FAO-56 and ASCE were identical. These results demonstrated that for applications that require 15-min time steps or daily ET₀ for the entire year, the use of ET_0,15-min,FAO and ET_0,24 h,FAO, respectively, will yield more consistent outcomes. The use of ET_0,d,FAO during the summer months can be as accurate as the use of ET_0,24 h,FAO for applications that require daily time steps, such as irrigation scheduling.     

Composition, age, and origin of the ~620?Ma Humr Akarim and Humrat Mukbid A-type granites: no evidence for pre-Neoproterozoic basement in the Eastern Desert, Egypt

The Humr Akarim and Humrat Mukbid plutons, in the central Eastern Desert of Egypt, are late Neoproterozoic post-collisional alkaline A-type granites. Humr Akarim and Humrat Mukbid plutonic rocks consist of subsolvus alkali granites and a subordinate roof facies of albite granite, which hosts greisen and Sn–Mo-mineralized quartz veins; textural and field evidence strongly suggest the presence of late magmatic F-rich fluids. The granites are Si-alkali rich, Mg–Ca–Ti poor with high Rb/Sr (20–123), and low K/Rb (27–65). They are enriched in high field strength elements (e.g., Nb, Ta, Zr, Y, U, Th) and heavy rare earth elements (La _n /Yb _n ?=?0.27–0.95) and exhibit significant tetrad effects in REE patterns. These geochemical attributes indicate that granite trace element distribution was controlled by crystal fractionation as well as interaction with fluorine-rich magmatic fluids. U–Pb SHRIMP zircon dating indicates an age of ~630–620?Ma but with abundant evidence that zircons were affected by late corrosive fluids (e.g., discordance, high common Pb). εNd at 620?Ma ranges from +3.4 to +6.8 (mean?=?+5.0) for Humr Akarim granitic rocks and from +4.8 to +7.5 (mean?=?+5.8) for Humrat Mukbid granitic rocks. Some slightly older zircons (~740?Ma, 703?Ma) may have been inherited from older granites in the region. Our U–Pb zircon data and Nd isotope results indicate a juvenile magma source of Neoproterozoic age like that responsible for forming most other ANS crust and refute previous conclusions that pre-Neoproterozoic continental crust was involved in the generation of the studied granites.     

Water use at Luxor,Egypt: consumption analysis and future demand forecasting

Water resources in Egypt are becoming scarce and the demand for clean drinking water supply is one of the most important priorities of the Egyptian government in recent years. Analyzing water use and future demand forecasting is a primitive clue for water demand management. Water in Luxor is used for agricultural, residential, institutional, commercial, and touristic purposes. The results of water use analysis indicated that for the time period from 1983 to 2012, agriculture is the highest consumer of water which reached about 94.76–97.38 % followed by residential water consumption (1.90–3.05 %), institutional water consumption (0.71–1.75 %), and touristic water consumption (0.02–0.43 %), respectively. The future demand forecasting results revealed that the present situation may continue to rise in the next 50 years which will increase the water demand with a water deficit ranging between 15 and 114 MCM/year. To fill the gap between the present water consumption and future residential, institutional, commercial, and touristic water demand, additional municipal facilities, and improvement and management of water supply/demand are needed. To cope with the predicted future water demand, it is recommended to improve the on-farm irrigation, reduce the demand for irrigation water, rationalize the irrigation water use, and enhance the integrated role of water users in integrated water resources management.     

Ash Shutbah: A possible impact structure in Saudi Arabia

We have investigated the Ash Shutbah circular structure in central Saudi Arabia (21°37′N 45°39′E) using satellite imagery, field mapping, thin‐section petrography, and X‐ray diffraction of collected samples. The approximately 2.1 km sized structure located in flat‐lying Jurassic Tuwaiq Mountain Limestone has been nearly peneplained by erosional processes. Satellite and structural data show a central area consisting of Dhruma Formation sandstones with steep bedding and tight folds plunging radially outward. Open folding occurs in displaced, younger Tuwaiq Mountain Limestone Formation blocks surrounding the central area, but is absent outside the circular structure. An approximately 60 cm thick, unique folded and disrupted orthoquartzitic sandstone marker bed occurring in the central area of the structure is found 140 m deeper in undisturbed escarpment outcrops located a few hundred meters west of the structure. With exception of a possible concave shatter cone found in the orthoquartzite of the central area, other diagnostic shock features are lacking. Some quartz‐rich sandstones from the central area show pervasive fracturing of quartz grains with common concussion fractures. This deformation was followed by an event of quartz dissolution and calcite precipitation consistent with local sea‐ or groundwater heating. The combination of central stratigraphic uplift of 140 m, concussion features in discolored sandstone, outward‐dipping concentric folds in the central area, deformation restricted to the rocks of the ring structure, a complex circular structure of 2.1 km diameter that appears broadly consistent with what one would expect from an impact structure in sedimentary targets, and a possible shatter cone all point to an impact origin of the Ash Shutbah structure. In fact, the Ash Shutbah structure appears to be a textbook example of an eroded, complex impact crater located in flat‐lying sedimentary rocks, where the undisturbed stratigraphic section can be studied in escarpment outcrops in the vicinity of the structure.