Precipitation as a proxy for climate variables: application for hydrological modelling

It has been proposed that linear regression curves can be used to estimate monthly climate variables from observed precipitation. This approach was explored by applying the MGB hydrological model to the Paraná Basin (Brazil). Linear regressions were obtained for 54 climate gauges, and most of them showed at least six months of significant correlation between monthly climate variables (sunlight hours and relative humidity) and precipitation. The regression equations were applied to 5201 raingauges to estimate monthly climate variables and evapotranspiration, and the results were compared with a scenario using long-term climate averages only. The main differences occurred in wetter periods, where negative correlations between monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration were obtained when using precipitation as a proxy. Long-term changes in the hydrological regime were assessed and showed that the effect of precipitation on relative humidity and sunlight hours seems to have a minor effect on the alterations observed in river discharge in the Paraná Basin.     

Shelf water entrainment by Gulf Stream warm-core rings between 75°W and 50°W during 1978–1999

Previous work concerning Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) and their associated shelf water entrainments have been based upon single surveys or time series from individual WCRs. To date, estimates of annual shelf water volume entrained into the Slope Sea by WCRs and its interannual variability have not been made. Using a long time series of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) observations of Slope Sea WCRs, we have completed an analysis of 22 years of WCR data (1978–1999) between 75°W and 50°W to understand the interannual variability of WCRs and their role in entraining shelf water. Satellite-derived SST data digitized at Bedford Institute of Oceanography are analyzed using an ellipse-fitting feature model to determine key WCR characteristics including WCR center position, radius and orientation. Key characteristics are then used to compute WCR swirl velocity by finite-differencing WCR orientations (θ) obtained from the feature model time series. Global mean WCR-edge swirl velocity calculated from all observations is 105.72±10.7 km day⁻¹ (122.36±12.4 cm s⁻¹), and global mean WCR radius is 64.8±6.2 km. Primary and derived WCR data are incorporated into a two-dimensional ring entrainment model (RM) using the quasi-geostrophic approximation of the potential vorticity equation. The RM defines ambient water as entrained by a WCR only if the gradient of relative vorticity term (horizontal shear) dominates the potential vorticity. Proximity of a WCR to the position of the shelf-slope front (SSF) is then used to determine whether the ambient water is entrained from the outer continental shelf. WCR-induced shelf entrainment derived from the RM displays considerable spatial variability, with maximum entrainment occurring offshore of Georges Bank, advecting a mean total annual shelf water volume of 7500 km³ year⁻¹ from the region. Estimates of shelf water fluxes display significant interannual variability, which may be in part due to the observed covariance between WCR occurrences and the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Increased (decreased) occurrences of WCRs are evidenced during positive (negative) phases of the NAO. The total mean annual shelf-wide WCR-induced shelf water transport is estimated to be 23,700 km³ year⁻¹ (0.75 Sv), accounting for nearly 25% of the total transport in the Slope Sea region neighboring the outer continental shelf.     

Interannual variability of Gulf Stream warm-core rings in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Analysis of a quality-controlled database of Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) between 75° and 50°W during 1978–1999 demonstrates a significant correlation between WCR occurrences and variations in large-scale atmospheric forcing related to the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The mechanisms for linking the NAO with the rate of WCR occurrences are two-fold: (1) the influence of the NAO on Gulf Stream (GS) position, which could affect the interaction of the Gulf Stream with the New England Seamounts chain and thus allow for a higher/lower number of WCR occurrences; (2) the NAO-induced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) variability in the Gulf Stream region (GSR), which is indicative of the baroclinic instability processes necessary for WCR formation. Variability in GS movement is studied by analyzing annual mean positions of the Gulf Stream North Wall obtained from satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) frontal charts. Response of GSR EKE to fluctuations in the state of the NAO is examined with a numerical simulation of the North Atlantic basin from 1980–1999. The North Atlantic basin is simulated using a 1/6°-resolution eddy-resolving Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model that spins up with Southampton Oceanography Center (SOC) ocean-atmosphere atlas-derived atmospheric forcing fields. Model-derived EKE estimates are observed to be in good agreement with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-based EKE estimates as well as with results from other modeling studies for the North Atlantic basin. We suggest that lateral movement of the GS may not be the primary mechanism causing variation in the rate of WCR occurrences, because GS position is observed to respond at a lag of one year, whereas annual rates of WCR occurrences respond at 0-year lag to the NAO. Based on results from numerical simulations of the North Atlantic basin, adjustment to NAO-induced wind forcing is seen to impact the GSR EKE intensity and possibly the related baroclinic instability structure of the GS at 0-year lag. These results suggest that NAO-induced interannual variability in GSR EKE is the most likely mechanism affecting WCR occurrences. Numerical simulations show that high (low) phases in the state of the NAO exhibit higher (lower) EKE in the GSR, providing a greater (lesser) source of baroclinic instability to the GS front, possibly resulting in higher (lower) occurrences of WCRs.     

Soil erosion potential hotspot zone identification using machine learning and statistical approaches in eastern India

Natural Hazards - Land degradation is very severe in the subtropical monsoon-dominated region due to the uncertainty of rainfall in the long term, and most of the rainfall occurs with high...