Numerical modelling of time-harmonic seismic wave fields in simple structures by the Gaussian beam method. Part II

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Spotless flare activity

The distribution of spotless flares (SFs) covering the time interval between 1947 and 1990 was investigated. The (11 – 20°) latitude zone was found as the most prolific region for the occurrence of SFs. The longitudinal distribution of SFs occurred most frequently at six or more places on the solar surface. In addition, the asymmetry of SF activity on the solar disk was also studied in this paper. The variation of the asymmetry was compared with other solar activity manifestations. The existence of secondary maxima of SFs appears to be an important result of our analysis. A one-year shift was found when the number of events was plotted versus the year.     

Aquifer heterogeneity determination through the slope method

In arid‐region wadis, groundwater storage lies within shallow Quaternary alluvium deposits, which are connected with the present‐day hydrological cycle and, therefore, are replenished due to occasional runoff and flash flood occurrences. The groundwater resources are precious in these environments; therefore, their potentiality must be assessed with care in the best manner. The aquifer potentiality is calculated after the storativity and transmissivity parameter estimations, which require rather long‐duration field tests with restrictive assumptions in the theoretical model developments, such as the homogeneity and isotropy. It is the main purpose of this paper to expose the fundamentals of the slope‐matching procedure (SMP) and its application for short‐duration field tests in arid‐region aquifers. In this manner, the subsurface hydrogeological behaviours of the bored land pieces at and around the well locations are prospected in a detailed and refined manner. It is shown that in many cases the classical techniques are appropriate, inconvenient and inapplicable with conclusive reliable results and conclusions. The application of the SMP is presented for some aquifer tests from the central western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A combined geophysical model of the crust for the south of the European part of the USSR

m¶rt; amamu ¶rt;uau nma nauua ¶rt; a n amu . n ¶rt;a uu u¶rt;au,aumuu u mn nma. mam maa auum ¶rt; m u nmm u¶rt;ua n¶rt;a u a maa a umua a nam . ¶rt; nmm amuu n¶rt;m uu 3,3/ ³ , n¶rt; ¶rt;uuuau u na¶rt;uau mu a anma ¶rt; 3,2/ ³ . ¶rt; n¶rt;uu a¶rt;u aau mum nm, maumaa ¶rt;¶rt;m aama u ¶rt; amu .

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Presented at the KAPG Symposium Problems of Interpretation and Construction of Physical Models of Litosphere, Liblice (CSSR), March 6–10, 1978.     

A new spatial prediction model and its application to wind records

Summary Contour maps of any meteorological variable cannot give radius or area of influences around the measurement station by considering the records at surrounding sites. The main purpose of this paper is to propose a trigonometric point cumulative semivariogram (TPCSV) concept for deciding on a spatial dependence function and then its use for regional prediction. The TPCSV provides a unique opportunity for the establishment of a regional objective prediction method whereby the radius of influence helps to predict wind velocity at any site by using the weighted averages. The spatial correlations and weightings are obtained through the TPCSV provided that the distance between two sites is known. If the slope of TPCSV is greater than 80° after some distance, then beyond this distance the regional correlation is considered as negligible. The implementation of the proposed methodology is presented for 68 wind velocity measurement stations in Turkey. The proposed method yields the least prediction error compared with other objective methodologies. It is seen that areas of influence at Central Anatolia are generally bigger than coastal areas of Turkey.     

等值线追踪生成等值面过程中的算法策略

等值面的生成可以通过等值线追踪来实现。现有的等值线追踪方法不但缺少对具体等值线追踪策略的详细描述,而且还缺少岛的拓扑关系分析及等值面属性的判断过程。本文通过分析等值面生成过程中的等值线追踪方法,提出了一种基于等值线追踪的等值面快速生成算法,并给出了追踪过程中的几个重要的数据结构及追踪策略,能够解决多种情况下的等值面生成问题,并重点对等值线追踪过程中岛的处理、 拓扑关系分析、 等值面属性判断等方面进行剖析。实际应用表明,该算法具有较好的鲁棒性,并能得到较高的算法追踪效率。     

Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (İzmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avc?lar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the Ç?narc?k Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the Ç?narc?k Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük çekmece and K ü ç ük çekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avc?lar. Indeed, Avc?lar and ?zmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avc?lar and ?zmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avc?lar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.