Influence of regional background stress fields on the spontaneous rupture of the major faults around Xiluodu dam,China

Simulations of the spontaneous rupture of potential earthquakes in the vicinity of reservoir dams can provide accurate parameters for seismic resilience assessment, which is essential for improving the seismic performance of reservoir dams. In simulations of potential spontaneous ruptures, fault geometry, regional stress fields, constitutive parameters of the fault friction law, and many other factors control the slip rate, morphology, and dislocation of the rupture, thereby affecting the simulated ground motion parameters. The focus of this study was to elucidate the effects of the background stress field on the nucleation and propagation of spontaneous ruptures based on the factors influencing potential M > 7 earthquake events on the Leibo Middle Fault (LBMF) and the Mabian-Yanjing Fault (MB-YJF) in the Xiluodu dam (XLD) region. Our simulation results show that the magnitude of the regional background stress field plays a decisive role in whether a destructive earthquake exceeding the critical magnitude will occur. We found that the direction and magnitude of the regional stress significantly affect the range of rupture propagation on the fault plane, and fault geometry affects the spatial distribution of the rupture range. Under the same regional stress field magnitude and orientation, a more destructive, high-magnitude earthquake is more likely to occur on the LBMF than on the MB-YJF.     

Evaluation of blast effects on reinforced concrete buildings considering Operational Modal Analysis results

Seismic protection of buildings under risk can be achieved by increasing the knowledge about the behaviour of existing structures. Operational Modal Analysis is a powerful tool used for this purpose all over the world. It provides the dynamic characteristics of structures under operational conditions or some particular environmental issues such as blasts and earthquakes. The main objective of this study is to evaluate blast effects on a reinforced concrete (RC) building considering experimentally determined dynamic characteristics. The study consists of three phases: the measurement of vibration characteristics of blasting, the theoretical modal analysis of the inspected building, and experimental verification of dynamic characteristics using modal testing. The vibration characteristics of blasting are measured around the inspected building on hard soil using a geophone set. The initial analytical model of the building is constructed according to the in-situ investigation on building. The theoretical modal analysis results are verified by carrying out modal testing on the RC building. The Operational Modal Analysis method is used for the extraction of the dynamic characteristics of the building, and blast vibrations are taken into account as environmental vibrations. The effects of blasting on the reinforced concrete building are introduced by assessing the vibration of blasting with the dynamic characteristics of the building.     

Faulting, mass-wasting and deposition in an active dextral shear zone, the Gulf of Saros and the NE Aegean Sea, NW Turkey

Structural, mass-wasting and sedimentation processes along an active dextral shear zone beneath the Gulf of Saros and the NE Aegean Sea were investigated on the basis of new high-resolution swath bathymetric data and multi-channel seismics. A long history of dextral shearing operating since the Pliocene culminated in the formation of a NE-SW-trending, ca. 800-m-deep basin (the so-called inner basin) in this region, which is bordered by a broad shelf along its northern and eastern sides and a narrow shelf at the southern side. The western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (the Ganos Fault) cuts the eastern shelf along a narrow deformation zone, and ends sharply at the toe of the slope, where the strain is taken up by two NE-SW-oriented fault zones. These two fault zones cut the basin floor along its central axis and generate a new, Riedel-type pull-apart basin (the so-called inner depression). According to the bathymetric and seismic data, these basin boundary fault zones are very recent features. The northern boundary of the inner depression is a through-going fault comprising several NE-SW- and E-W-oriented, overlapping fault segments. The southern boundary fault zone, on the other hand, consists of spectacular en-echelon fault systems aligned in NE–SW and WNW–ESE directions. These en-echelon faults accommodate both dextral and vertical motions, thereby generating block rotations along their horizontal axis. As the basin margins retreat, the basin widens continuously by mass-wasting of the slopes of the inner basin. The mass-wasting, triggered by active tectonics, occurs by intense landsliding and channel erosion. The eroded material is transported into the deep basin, where it is deposited in a series of deep-sea fans and slumps. The high sedimentation rate is reflected in an over 1,500-m-thick basin fill which has accumulated in Pliocene–Quaternary times.     

Factors controlling the morphological evolution of the Çanakkale Strait (Dardanelles, Turkey)

Seismic profiling, bathymetric and physical oceanographic data collected from the Çanakkale Strait revealed that the morphological evolution of the strait has been controlled by tectonic activity, and sediment erosion and deposition. Sediments in the strait have been sourced mostly by rivers draining the Biga Peninsula during lowstand periods. In highstand periods, by contrast, deposits in the strait were reworked by currents. The seafloor morphology of the Çanakkale Strait is also controlled by a sequence of factors ranging from tectonics to current erosion and deposition. Channel deposits overlying the basement are being eroded at the narrower, meandering central section of the strait (the Nara Passage) due to high current velocities. The eroded sediments are deposited in the relatively linear and wider, northern and southern sectors of the strait exposed to low current velocities. As a result, the high-energy areas are more deeply incised due to the erosion, whereas deposition elevates the seafloor in the areas exposed to lower current energy. Three strike-slip faults, which possibly relate to the activity of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, are responsible for the irregular shape of the strait and this, in turn, controls the current velocity along the strait. The high-energy conditions probably commenced with the latest invasion of Mediterranean waters some 12 ka b.p., and have continued as a two-layered current system to the present day.     

The emergence of equatorial deep jets in an idealised primitive equation model: an interpretation in terms of basin modes

Ocean circulation models do not generally exhibit equatorial deep jets (EDJs), even though EDJs are a recognised feature of the observed ocean circulation along the equator and they are thought to be important for tracer transport along the equator and even equatorial climate. EDJs are nevertheless found in nonlinear primitive equation models with idealised box geometry. Here we analyse several such model runs. We note that the variability of the zonal velocity in the model is dominated by the gravest linear equatorial basin mode for a wide range of baroclinic vertical normal modes and that the EDJs in the model are dominated by energy contained in vertical modes between 10 and 20. The emergence of the EDJs is shown to involve the linear superposition of several such neighbouring basin modes. Furthermore, the phase of these basin modes is set at the start of the model run and, in the case of the reference experiment, the same basin modes can be found in a companion experiment in which the amplitude of the forcing has been reduced by a factor of 1000. We also argue that following the spin-up, energy must be transferred between different vertical modes. This is because the model simulations are dominated by downward phase propagation following the spin-up whereas our reconstructions imply episodes of upward and downward propagation. The transfer of energy between the vertical modes is associated with a decadal modulation of the EDJs.     

Wavelet–copula‐based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications

Under a climate change, the physical factors that influence the rainfall regime are diverse and difficult to predict. The selection of skilful inputs for rainfall forecasting models is, therefore, more challenging. This paper combines wavelet transform and Frank copula function in a mutual information‐based input variable selection (IVS) for non‐linear rainfall forecasting models. The marginal probability density functions (PDFs) of a set of potential rainfall predictors and the rainfall series (predictand) were computed using a wavelet density estimator. The Frank copula function was applied to compute the joint PDF of the predictors and the predictand from their marginal PDFs. The relationship between the rainfall series and the potential predictors was assessed based on the mutual information computed from their marginal and joint PDFs. Finally, the minimum redundancy maximum relevance was used as an IVS stopping criterion to determine the number of skilful input variables. The proposed approach was applied to four stations of the Nigerien Sahel with rainfall series spanning the period 1950–2016 by considering 24 climate indices as potential predictors. Adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system, artificial neural networks, and random forest‐based forecast models were used to assess the skill of the proposed IVS method. The three forecasting models yielded satisfactory results, exhibiting a coefficient of determination between 0.52 and 0.69 and a mean absolute percentage error varying from 13.6% to 21%. The adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system performed better than the other models at all the stations. A comparison made with KDE‐based mutual information showed the advantage of the proposed wavelet–copula approach.     

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Based on L-Moment Approach (Case Study Tisza River Basin)

Water Resources - Floods are one of the most common natural hazards and as such, they are causing a great loss of human life as well as great economic damages. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is...     

Long-Term 3D Hydrodynamic Modeling and Water Surface Statistics in Marmara Sea

Marmara Sea (MS) lies in the strategic crossroad, accommodating one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. In general, there is a two-layer current system in the MS and Turkish Straits system; the brackish waters originating in the Black Sea (BS) (18 PSU) moving southward to the Aegean Sea (AS), and a lower layer return flow of saltier Aegean waters (38.5 PSU) back to the BS. This variability poses a challenging task within the modeling perspective. In this research, 3D hydrodynamic modeling of MS is performed in order to investigate the spatial and temporal behavior of elevations between years 2000 and 2015. During the calibration process, the grid configuration, time step, and model coefficients (Manning bed roughness coefficient, a wind drag coefficient and horizontal viscosity are coefficients) are adjusted until the computed solution produced the best match to the observed data such as water surface elevations, velocities, and net discharges. To this end, a series of simulations are made. As a result, the observed and the predicted water surface elevations follow each other very closely. The developed model could accurately estimate the net discharge as well. In order to understand the behavior of MS, elevation pattern is calculated and depicted both on annual and seasonal scales. It is demonstrated that the influence of seasonally varying strong fresh water river discharges of Danube in BS have strong influence on the water mass characteristics of the MS.     

Late Quaternary evolution of the Çanakkale Strait region (Dardanelles, NW Turkey): implications of a major erosional event for the postglacial Mediterranean-Marmara Sea connection

Seismic and bathymetric data from the Çanakkale Strait and its extensions onto the shelves of the Marmara and Aegean seas indicate that the strait was formed mainly by an erosional event. Four seismic units are observed on seismic profiles. The lower two of these (units 4 and 3) constitute the basement of a regionally widespread erosional unconformity (ravinement), which developed during marine isotope stage 2 (MIS 2). The two upper units (units 2 and 1), which overlie the ravinement surface, form a higher-order sequence. Sequence stratigraphic analysis indicates that units 2 and 1 deposited as lowstand and highstand systems tracts respectively, since the end of MIS 2. The transgressive systems tract is represented by a major erosional event which occurred throughout the Çanakkale sill area when the Mediterranean-Marmara Sea connection and, hence, the Çanakkale Strait was formed. The existence of the erosive ?arköy Canyon along the shelf edge of the southern Marmara Sea demonstrates that the flow direction causing the erosion was from south to north, thus proving that it was produced by Mediterranean water flowing over the sill into the Marmara Sea basin.