Wavelet regression model as an alternative to neural networks for monthly streamflow forecasting

The accuracy of the wavelet regression (WR) model in monthly streamflow forecasting is investigated in the study. The WR model is improved combining the two methods—the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) model and the linear regression (LR) model—for 1‐month‐ahead streamflow forecasting. In the first part of the study, the results of the WR model are compared with those of the single LR model. Monthly flow data from two stations, Gerdelli Station on Canakdere River and Isakoy Station on Goksudere River, in Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey are used in the study. The comparison results reveal that the WR model could increase the forecast accuracy of the LR model. In the second part of the study, the accuracy of the WR model is compared with those of the artificial neural networks (ANN) and auto‐regressive (AR) models. On the basis of the results, the WR is found to be better than the ANN and AR models in monthly streamflow forecasting. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南京市水西门市民广场防洪墙地段滑坡成因机制与工程地质灾害防治对策

概述了南京市水西门市民广场地质环境背景 ,分析了广场建设和灾害发生过程中存在的工程地质条件、工程、管理等方面的问题 ,剖析了该滑坡产生的机制 ,针对近年南京地区边坡失稳和滑坡灾害时有发生的状况 ,提出了防治对策。     

Determination of the origin of the Helvadere drinking springs by means of hydrochemical and isotopic techniques, Aksaray, Central Anatolia, Turkey

The main aquifer of the Helvadere springs that emerges on the strike-slip of the Hasanda?? fault set alongside the Tuzgölü (salt lake) fault zone, and trends in a NW–SE direction of Aksaray city, in the western part of Central Anatolia, is the exposed rocks of Hasanda?? which are volcanics that have distinct hydrogeological properties. The meteoric origin of the spring waters is deduced from hydrochemical and environmental isotope (¹⁸O, ²H, ³H) studies. The springs have high discharge (Q>100?l/s) and low ion concentrations because of fast circulation along the groundwater flow path in the aquifer. Furthermore, because it has Ca-Na-Mg-HCO₃ hydrochemical facies, it conforms to high standards of drinking and irrigation water.     

马兰冰芯记录的青藏高原中部现代升温变化特征

根据从可可西里地区马兰冰帽钻取的深102.07m冰芯记录中δ¹⁸O的年变化,恢复了青藏高原中部20世纪20年代以来的气候变化.研究表明,青藏高原中部的升温变化与北半球20世纪的升温变化的总体趋势一致,最暖阶段出现在50—80年代早期.期间也出现了几次明显的冷的波动,尤其80年代后期至90年代持续低温,可能与这一时段强盛的夏季风有关.这也表明20世纪末全球急剧升温变化的过程中,某些地区存在气候变冷的波动事件.     

广东省绿色食品生产存在的问题与对策

综述广东省绿色食品发展存在的问题 :(1)绿色食品生产的地区分布不平衡 ,规模小 ,品种结构不合理 ;(2 )绿色食品“产前、产中、产后”的生产与管理技术落后或缺乏 ;(3)资金投入与科技投入不足 ;(4 )宣传力度不够 ,人们的绿色食品意识淡薄 ;(5)绿色食品生产的“比较优势”未能充分体现。同时 ,提出了一系列的发展对策。     

非饱和土的有效应力与抗剪强度

从孔隙土的存在状态出发，探讨了吸力的两种不同作用效果与非饱和形态的关系，从理论上论证了Bishop公式的正确性澄清了多年来一个基本概念上的误解。用新的观点阐述了非饱和土中抗剪强度分布不均匀及浸水湿陷的原因；同时还对Fredlund和卢肇钧提出的抗剪强度理论及参数的测试方法进行了分析，提出了各种抗剪强度理论在理论上都是相同的，其区别仅在于确定由吸力产生的那部分有效应力时采用的参数和测试 方法不同。为今后非饱和土的抗剪强度研究从理论转向实用提供了理论基础。     

Flow dynamics at the origin of thin clayey sand lacustrine turbidites: Examples from Lake Hazar,Turkey

Turbidity currents and their deposits can be investigated using several methods, i.e. direct monitoring, physical and numerical modelling, sediment cores and outcrops. The present study focused on thin clayey sand turbidites found in Lake Hazar (Turkey) occurring in eleven clusters of closely spaced thin beds. Depositional processes and sources for three of those eleven clusters are studied at three coring sites. Bathymetrical data and seismic reflection profiles are used to understand the specific geomorphology of each site. X‐ray, thin sections and CT scan imagery combined with grain‐size, geochemical and mineralogical measurements on the cores allow characterization of the turbidites. Turbidites included in each cluster were produced by remobilization of surficial slope sediment, a process identified in very few studies worldwide. Three types of turbidites are distinguished and compared with deposits obtained in flume studies published in the literature. Type 1 is made of an ungraded clayey silt layer issued from a cohesive flow. Type 2 is composed of a partially graded clayey sand layer overlain by a mud cap, attributed to a transitional flow. Type 3 corresponds to a graded clayey sand layer overlain by a mud cap issued from a turbulence‐dominated flow. While the published experimental studies show that turbulence is damped by cohesion for low clay content, type 3 deposits of this study show evidence for a turbulence‐dominated mechanism despite their high clay content. This divergence may in part relate to input variables, such as water chemistry and clay mineralogy, that are not routinely considered in experimental studies. Furthermore, the large sedimentological variety observed in the turbidites from one coring site to another is related to the evolution of a sediment flow within a field‐scale basin made of a complex physiography that cannot be tackled by flume experiments.     

渤海海域黄河口凹陷新近系多油水系统油藏成因分析

为明确同类油田的开发调整方向和潜力目标,以滚动勘探开发为目的,以A油田为例,探讨了黄河口凹陷中央构造脊北端新近系多油水系统油藏成因。储层与油源断层的有效配置是控制该类油气聚集的关键因素。基于已开发油田井震一体化精细地层对比和储层展布研究,细化了储层空间展布,并结合油源断层特征剖析,系统分析了储-断耦合对油气分布的控制作用。首先,油源断裂垂向活动强弱的差异与储层的匹配控制着油气垂向上主要聚集层位;其次,断裂平面发育程度的差异与储层展布的耦合控制着油气在平面上的分布;再次,储-断接触关系影响着油气的富集和赋存规律。     

费县城乡建设用地增减挂钩探析

2009年以来,费县全力推进城乡建设用地增减挂钩工作,为县域经济发展提供了用地空间,为加快城乡统筹发展,调整优化城乡用地布局结构,缓解建设用地供需矛盾,促进土地集约、高效和可持续利用奠定了良好的基础。但还存在与相关规划协调和衔接比较困难、项目资金投入大、拆迁难度大、项目权属调整复杂等问题。针对这些问题提出了强化合作机制、完善土地流转机制、加大资金投入等措施。     

The Požarevac loess–paleosol sequence: a record of increased aridity in the south-eastern margin of the Carpathian Basin during the last 350 ka

The loess sequence preserved in the Požarevac brickyard in north-eastern Serbia comprises eight loess units separated by seven paleosols. Geochronological investigation using amino acid racemization and luminescence dating support stratigraphic correlations of loess units L3, S2LL1 and L1 at the Požarevac section with loess of glacial cycles E [Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10], D (MIS 9–8), C (MIS 7–6) and B (MIS 5–2) across central Europe. Correlation with the marine oxygen-isotope stratigraphy and associated paleoclimatic inferences are further supported by magnetic susceptibility, particle size and carbonate content measured in Požarevac sediments. Malacological investigations at the Požarevac section reveal the continuous presence of the Chondrula tridens and Helicopsis striata faunal assemblages throughout the last 350 ka. The loess malacological fauna, which is characterized by the complete absence of cold-resistant and cold-preferring species, suggests a stable, dry and relatively warm glacial and interglacial climate, compared with other central European loess localities. Together these data suggest that the south-eastern part of the Carpathian (Pannonian, Middle Danube) Basin was a refugium for warm-preferring and xerophilous land-snails during the generally unfavorable glacial climates of the late Middle and Late Pleistocene.