Patterns in the Turkish reinsurance claim data, 1998–2002: An application of the extreme value theory

The devastating 1999 Marmara and Düzce earthquakes led to a significant increase in the earthquake studies in Turkey in geological, engineering and financial aspects. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) has a range of applications from stock market changes to natural disasters like floods and hurricanes. Here EVT is fitted to the ordinary and earthquake reinsurance claims of Turkey.     

Back-analysis of a seismically induced highway embankment failure during the 1999 Düzce earthquake

An earthquake of magnitude 7.2 on the Richter scale occurred on 12 November 1999 in the Düzce-Bolu region of Turkey. The region was also hit approximately 3 months before during the devastating Kocaeli earthquake of 17 August 1999. Besides high casualties and damage to various engineering structures and buildings, slope and embankment failures on the highway and the country roads occurred. In this study, the authors are concerned with the back-analysis of an embankment failure that occurred on the four lanes E-5 highway connecting Ankara to Gstanbul at Bakacak in the Bolu Province during the 1999 Düzce earthquake. Both pseudo-dynamic and dynamic limiting equilibrium methods are used to back analyse the conditions for the initiation of failure and also displacement responses of the embankment during the earthquake shaking. After having given a brief summary of the investigations on the post-failure state, the geology and geotechnical characteristics of the site, and the dynamic limiting equilibrium method developed and used for analyses are described. The results of the back-analysis based on a pseudo-dynamic approach, revealed that the maximum ground acceleration to initiate the failure of the embankment was probably about 0.125 g. On the other hand, the application of a method for computing the displacement and velocity responses of the failed embankment showed that the failure was possible when the embankment was subjected to ground accelerations similar to that recorded at the Düzce station. In addition, the computations also revealed that the time history of accelerations could be very important for the failure of slopes and embankments.     

Petrology and geochemistry of orthoamphibolites from the Variscan metamorphic sequences of the South Tisia in Croatia – an overview with geodynamic implications

In the southern Pannonian Basin, the Variscan Barrovian- and overprinted Abukuma-type progressive metamorphic sequences of the South Tisia in Slavonian Mts. (SM) and Mt. Moslava)ka Gora (MG) are interlayered with orthoamphibolites. These sequences represent part of a disrupted Variscan belt that extends southeastwards of the Bohemian Massif through the Carpathians to the Caucasus. Orthoamphibolites contain hornblende (Mg-hornblende, tschermakite, pargasite, and edenite), plagioclase An_48-98 (MG) and An_26-35 (SM), biotite, grossular (MG) and almandine (SM) enriched garnet, diopside (MG), with accessory ilmenite, titanite, and clinozoisite. Based on major and trace element analyses and CIPW norms, these orthoamphibolites, which originally were olivine tholeiites to slightly alkalic basalts, can be correlated with tholeiites of consuming plate margins. '¹⁸O of orthoamphibolites varies from 5.8 to 7.1‰, the measured ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio from 0.70435 to 0.70665, which indicates slight continental crust contamination, and the calculated ratio from 0.70262 to 0.70535, indicating an upper mantle origin of the original basaltic melts. For associated penecontemporaneous I-type granitoids, the calculated initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio also have upper mantle values ranging between 0.70293 and 0.70368. Geochemical data for orthoamphibolites and the associated penecontemporaneous I-type granites, and the occurrence of alpine-type ultramafic bodies within the Barrovian sequence, indicate that they have many features in common with orogenic associations related to recent subduction-related settings. Some characteristic element ratios suggest back-arc basin environments and the Ce/K vs. Ce diagram suggests a pargasite-lherzolite source. Its partial melting gave primitive basaltic melts of olivine tholeiite to slight alkalic affinities that produced at first differentiated mafic rocks by olivine fractionation (future orthoamphibolites) and, afterwards, a strongly differentiated suite of I-type granitoids by amphibole fractionation. Magma emplacement and subsequent AFC processes took place in subduction environments preceding the main Variscan deformational metamorphic event during which orthoamphibolites were generated. This interpretation is compatible with geodynamic modeling of this part of the Paleotethys.     

β-环糊精包合态三氟氯氰杀虫剂的制备

为了进一步提高三氟氯氰菊酯农药的防治效果。寻找适宜的农药新剂型，我们用液相法制备了三氟氯氰菊酯－β－环糊精包合物，并以水为基质进行了稳定性观察，同时又以差热分析法和气相色谱法确认了包合物的形成，以旋光度法证明两者间的包合比。结果表明，三氟氯氰菊酯与β-环糊精可形成1：1型包合物，该包合物稳定性高，具有一定的水溶性，而且在水中稳定，所以有望通过环糊 包合作用将三氟氯氰菊酯帛成水剂；当以气相法测试包合态三氟氯氰菊酯含量时，必须将其解络，使之成为游离状态，然后按常规方法进行含量测定。     

1906年玛纳斯7.7级地震孕震过程的数值模拟研究

根据玛纳斯 7 7级强震区的构造格架 ,利用三维有限元方法对 190 6年玛纳斯 7 7级地震的强震区进行了应力模拟研究。结果表明 ,玛纳斯地震的震源区不仅位于应力集中的部位 ,而且该部位集中的应力还会随着时间的增长而增大。数值模拟较好地再现了 190 6年玛纳斯 7 7级地震震源区的应力积累过程     

Late Oligocene–Early Miocene palaeoecology based on pollen data from the Kalkım-Gönen Basin (Northwest Turkey)

Radiometric and palynological data of the Upper Oligocene–Lower Miocene Soma Formation from the Kalk?m-Gönen Basin yield new results related to age and palynological contents. In this study, Upper Oligocene strata from the Dani?ment and Linfa areas and Lower Miocene strata from the Bengiler area were sampled palynologically and for radiometric dating. The Dani?ment assemblage, which is older than the Linfa assemblages, mainly contains coniferous and evergreen to deciduous mixed mesophytic forest elements. Relatively high quantities of the altitudinal plants Picea and Abies, indicate a cooler palaeoclimate. The Linfa associations mainly include coniferous and riparian elements. Pollen of the riparian plant Alnus and Taxodiaceae indicative for the swamp forest community was predominant, probably as a result of a high lake level. There is a hiatus during the Oligocene–Miocene transition, probably showing a non-depositional phase and sea-level fall indicating the Mi-1 glaciation event. Higher in the sequence, the Aquitanian Bengiler sediments include high amounts of coniferous forest elements as well as components indicative for the evergreen and deciduous mesophytic forest and also riparian forest and swamp forest. Due to presence of thermophilous taxa Reveesia, Mastixiaceae and Arecaceae, a warm and humid palaeoclimate is inferred according to quantitative analyses using the Coexistence Approach.     

Carcinogenic risk evaluation for human health risk assessment from soils contaminated with heavy metals

Human activities have progressively increased in recent years. Consequently, significant environment deterioration resulted. Soils have a particularly varied vulnerability to heavy metal pollution, especially in the vicinity of industrial areas. Heavy metal contamination of soil may induce risks and hazards to humans and the ecosystem, while toxic metals in soil can severely inhibit the biodegradation of organic contaminants. This paper is focused on human health risk assessment from extremely contaminated soil with heavy metals, mainly with carcinogenic elements. The study refers to an agricultural area in the vicinity of an old metallurgical processing industrial facility. The contaminants evaluated in the present paper are beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb). Contamination level is pointed out through laboratory analysis results of soil samples taken from 0–0.2 m, 0.2–0.4 m soil layers and up to 2.1 m soil depth. Some heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr and Pb) exceed the intervention thresholds for sensitive areas, as they are stipulated in the national regulation in Romania. The identified average concentration levels of Cd, Cr^VI and Pb in the first layer of the investigated land are 23.83, 7.71 and 704.22 mg/kg_d.w, respectively. The results show that the potential risk of human health is relevant (higher than the acceptable one after World Health Organization) and a possible solution for the remediation should become a major concern for the investigated area.