A Seismic Hazard Map Based on Geology and Shear-wave Velocity in Rawalpindi–Islamabad,Pakistan

The ‘twin cities' district of Rawalpindi–Islamabad is among the most endangered seismic regions in Pakistan,with the seismic hazard assessed(0.32 g) to intensity IX MMI for a 475-year return period. A seismic hazard map for Rawalpindi–Islamabad is presented herein, based on 85 shear-wave velocity(VS) profiles obtained through geophysical H/V measurements and from the geological map of the region. Relationships between the average top thirty-meter shear-wave velocities(VS30) and surficial geological units have been determined. The peak ground acceleration(PGA) maps for 150,475 and 2475-year return periods were converted into a seismic intensity map. Intensity increments for different soils were used to compute PGA values for 150, 475 and 2475-year return periods. Sites located on softer ground experienced a higher degree of damage from moderate earthquakes. Due to the presence of soft clay or lique?able soil and lateral spreading, a few locations may be classified as hybrid sites class C and D. This map is a critical step in facilitating code-based site classification and seismic design throughout Rawalpindi–Islamabad. Although the seismic hazard map based on seismic intensities is no longer used in engineering geology, it is still important in seismological analysis and for civil protection purposes.     

Physical modeling into outflow hydrographs and breach characteristics of homogeneous earthfill dams failure due to overtopping

The main objective of the present study is to introduce new empirical equations for the determination of breach geometrical dimensions and peak outflow discharge(Q_p).Therefore,a historic failure database of 109 embankments was collected and examined.The most important factors that affect the breach evolution,including grading size,hydraulic,and outflow characteristics are also studied.Some of the parameters used for the determination of Q_p and average breach width(Bave)have a significant effect on the erosion process,but they are less reflected in the technical literature.To study the behavior of noncohesive soils during overtopping,15 physical tests were performed at the laboratory,and the effects of interfering parameters were investigated.The experimental output hydrograph was used to simulate the hydrographs resulting from the failure of real dams,and recent artificial intelligence techniques along with linear and nonlinear regression models were employed.The area-time analysis of the laboratory hydrographs shows that the soil particle size and the characteristics of reservoir-basin significantly affect the rate of breach formation and outflow discharge.New relationships are introduced,based on the breach characteristics,by a combination of historical and experimental data,as well as case studies conducted on the hypothetical failure of 10 operational dams.The mathematical model is also used to simulate the process of breach evaluation.Based on statistical indices,comparison of the results,and sensitivity analysis,the developed equations can better express the susceptibility of materials to erosion and their application can minimize downstream vulnerabilities.     

Petrology of calc-alkaline/adakitic basement hosting A-type Neoproterozoic granites of the Malani igneous suite in Nagar Parkar,SE Sindh,Pakistan

The Nagar Parkar area contains three distinct groups of rocks, from oldest to youngest, (1) basement rocks ranging in composition from mafic to (quartz)diorite, tonalite, granite, and younger granodiorite, (2) granite plutons similar in general features to those of the Malani Igneous Suite of Rajasthan, and (3) abundant mafic, felsic and rhyolitic dykes. The basement rocks show strong brittle and local plastic deformation, and epidote amphibolite/upper greenschist facies metamorphic overprint. The chemistry of the basement rocks contrasts the commonly agreed within plate A-type character of the Neoproterozoic granites (group 2) that are emplaced into them. The basement rock association is calc-alkaline; the granodiorite displays the compositional characteristics of adakites, whereas the tonalite has intermediate composition between typical adakite and classical island arc rocks. This paper presents detailed petrography of the basement rocks and compares their geochemistry with those of the group 2 granites as well as with rocks from other tectonic environments. It is proposed that the Nagar Parkar basement is part of a 900–840 Ma magmatic arc that was deformed before it was intruded 800–700 Ma ago by the A-type continental granitic rocks followed by mafic to felsic dykes.     

Characteristics and Genesis of the Es_1 Productive Sandstone Reservoir(Paleogene), Nanpu Sag,East China

The Shahejie Formation is a fundamental rock unit for hydrocarbon exploration and production in the Nanpu Sag, Bohai Bay Basin. Methodology including thin sectioning, core observations, fluorescence, scanning electron microscopy, cathodoluminescence, fluid inclusion, laser scanning confocal microscopy and geochemical analysis(C, O isotopes) were all utilized to investigate the reservoir characteristics and origin of the Es_1 Sandstone. Thin section study showed that the reservoir rock consisted of feldspathic litharenite and lithic arkose. The reservoir pores are categorized as intergranular pores, fracture pores, dissolution pores and intergranular cement dissolution pores. The studied sandstone had good porosity(0.05%–35%) and permeability(0.006–7000 m D). The Es_1 reservoir is classified as a fractured reservoir, a primary intergranular pore-associated reservoir and a dissolution reservoir. Deposition, diagenesis and tectogenesis are the main factors that played important roles in the development of the reservoir. Sedimentation is the foundation and assumption for reservoir development, but the effective reservoir is primarily controlled by primary pores, fractures, lithofacies, tectonic elements and dissolution pores. Moreover, compaction, fracture filling and cementation were the primary sources of reservoir densification. The reservoir was progressively formed through the influence of different geological and diagenetic events. The present study provides significant information and references for hydrocarbon exploration and development in the Nanpu Sag.     

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues, it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain. Therefore, the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative. Adaptive state estimator (ASE) is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique, thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters. The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and /or random switching of input and measurement biases. The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE, which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10% in 2-dimensional problems. Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios. Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor, Recursive Least Square Estimator (RLSE) due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes. ASE’s inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE, resulting from the complexity of algorithm, was also noticed. The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.     

Organic geochemistry and source rock potential assessment of Late Paleocene Patala Formation in Margalla Hill Range,North Pakistan

Black shales of the Paleocene Patala Formation are proven source rocks for conventional hydrocarbons in southern Potwar Basin of Pakistan and are assumed to be effective source rocks towards north in the Margalla Hill Range of Pakistan. In this regard, the current study focuses on source rock geochemistry of the Paleocene Patala Formation to assess its source rock potential, organic matter types and thermal maturity levels in the Mar-galla Hill Range of North Pakistan. Source rock generative potential, kerogen types and thermal maturation of the analysed rock samples were unraveled by using Rock-Eval pyrolysis Tmax, TOC (total organic carbon) and vitrinite reflectance ( R0 ) analyses. TOC analysis coupled with S2 yield revealed poor to fair source rock quality encountered within the formation. The pyrolysis Tmax vs Hydrogen Index ( HI) , showed mostly Type Ⅲ kerogen dominated by thermally immature to mature organic matter. The HI and genetic potential is low and revealed poor hydrocarbon generation potential of the formation. The S1 vs TOC plots confirm the indigenous nature of the hydrocarbons hosted by Patala Formation. The vitrinite reflectance outcomes indicated immature to mature source rock beds lying in dry gas zone. The HI and OI signatures and abundance of Type Ⅲ kerogen are indica-ting dominance of terrestrial organic matter within the formation. Overall, the investigated Patala Formation ex-posed at the studied section of Margalla Hill Range, Pakistan acts as a poor source rock unit for liquid hydrocar-bon generation but holds prospects for dry gas generation in the study area.     

Riverine flood mapping and impact assessment using remote sensing technique: a case study of Chenab flood-2014 in Multan district,Punjab, Pakistan

The Multan district is mainly prone to riverine floods but has remained understudied. Chenab flood-2014 was the worst flood that this district experienced in recorded history. This study applies remote sensing (RS) techniques to estimate the extent, calculate duration, assess the major causes and resulting impacts of the flood-2014, using Landsat-8 OLI images. These images were obtained for pre-flood, during-flood and post-flood instances. Secondary data of flood causing factors were obtained for comprehensive analysis. Spatially trained and validated datasets were obtained through Google Earth platform and Global positioning system. The supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm was used to classify land use and land cover of the study area. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index was utilized to detect flood inundation extent and duration, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was utilized to monitor vegetation coverage and changes. The analysis allowed us to assess flood causes, and calculate the extent of the flooded areas with duration and recession, as well as damages to standing crops and built-up areas. The results revealed that the flood-2014 occurred due to heavy rains in early September in upper Chenab catchment. The flood inundation continued for around two months, which heavily affected agriculture and built-up areas. The present study introduces practical use of RS techniques to provide basis for effective flood inundation mapping and impact assessment, as an application for early flood response and recovery in the world.

     

Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010

Pakistan has experienced severe floods over the past decades due to climate variability. Among all the floods, the flood of 2010 was the worst in history. This study focuses on the assessment of (1) riverine flooding in the district Jhang (where Jhelum and Chenab rivers join, and the district was severely flood affected) and (2) south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns and anomalies considering the case of 2010 flood in Pakistan. The land use/cover change has been analyzed by using Landsat TM 30 m resolution satellite imageries for supervised classification, and three instances have been compared, i.e., pre-flooding, flooding, and post-flooding. The water flow accumulation, drainage density and pattern, and river catchment areas have been calculated by using Shutter Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model 90 m resolution. The standard deviation of south Asiatic summer monsoon rainfall patterns, anomalies and normal (1979–2008) has been calculated for July, August, and September by using rainfall data set of Era interim (0.75° × 0.75° resolution). El Niño Southern Oscillation has also been considered for its role in prevailing rainfall anomalies during the year 2010 over Upper Indus Basin region. Results show the considerable changing of land cover during the three instances in the Jhang district and water content in the rivers. Abnormal rainfall patterns over Upper Indus Basin region prevailed during summer monsoon months in the year 2010 and 2011. The El Niño (2009–2010) and its rapid phase transition to La Niña (2011–2012) may be the cause of severity and disturbances in rainfall patterns during the year 2010. The Geographical Information System techniques and model based simulated climate data sets have been used in this study which can be helpful in developing a monitoring tool for flood management.     

Stability Analysis of the 19A Ore Pass at Brunswick Mine Using a Two-Stage Numerical Modeling Approach

The longevity of ore pass systems is an important consideration in underground mines. This is controlled to a degree by the structural stability of an ore pass which can be compromised by changes in the stress regime and the degree of fracturing of the rock mass. A failure mechanism specific to ore pass systems is damage on the ore pass wall by impact load or wear by material flow. Structural, stress and material flow-induced failure mechanisms interact with severe repercussions, although in most cases one mechanism is more dominant. This paper aims to provide a better understanding of the interaction of ore pass failure mechanisms in an operating mine. This can provide an aid in the design of ore pass systems. A two-stage numerical approach was used for the back analysis of an ore pass at Brunswick mine in Canada. The first stage in the analysis relied on a 3D boundary element analysis to define the stress regime in the vicinity of the ore pass. The second stage used a synthetic rock mass (SRM) model, constructed from a discrete fracture network, generated from quantitative rock mass field data. The fracture network geometry was introduced into a bonded particle model, in a particle flow code (PFC). Subsequently, the ore pass was excavated within the SRM model. A stability analysis quantified the extent of rock mass failure around the ore pass due to the interaction of pre-existing fractures and the failure of the intact rock bridges between these fractures. The resulting asymmetric failure patterns along the length of the ore pass were controlled to a large degree by the in situ fractures. The influence of particle flow impact was integrated into the model by projecting a discrete rock fragment against the ore pass walls represented by the SRM model. The numerical results illustrated that material impact on ore pass walls resulted in localised damage and accelerated the stress-induced failure.