3D numerical stability analysis of multi-lateral well junctions

The most important factors in multi-lateral well stability analysis are the magnitude of in situ stresses, the relation between the amount of in situ stresses and orientation of lateral wellbore. In this research, the stability analysis of multi-lateral junction is carried out using FLAC3D numerical code by considering seven varied stress regimes and different lateral wellbore orientations. The Normalized Yielded Zone Area (NYZA, ratio of surrounding yielded cross-sectional area to initial area of well) is determined for different junction mud pressures as well as diverse orientations of lateral wellbore. Then, the junction optimum mud pressure of each lateral wellbore orientation is calculated; hence, the optimum trajectory of lateral wellbore, in which the junction has got the lowest optimum mud pressure, is selected in each stress regime. The stability analysis of multi-lateral wells by means of finite difference method shows that in each stress regime the required mud pressure for the stability of junction is much more than that of the lateral branch and the main wellbore.     

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.     

Astrophysical naturally moderated classical positron beam interaction with nonlinear waves in nonextensive astrophysical plasmas

The positron acoustic shock and solitary wave are explored in nonextensive electron-positron-ion plasma. The plasma system under-consideration, consists of a classical positron beam, q distributed electrons and positively charged bulky ions constitute a neutralizing background. The nonlinear Korteweg-de Vries and Burger equations are derived by employing the standard reductive perturbation method. The positron acoustic wave in linear limit is also discussed for dissipative as well as nondissipative cases of nonextensive plasmas. The plasma parameters such as, the concentration of neutralizing ions background, beam velocity, temperature and q parameter of the nonextensive electrons are noticed to significantly affect the positron acoustic shock and solitary waves. Our findings may be helpful in the understanding of laboratory beam plasma interaction experiments as well as the astrophysical nonextensive plasmas interacting with positron beam.     

River management system development in Asia based on Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) under GEOSS

This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative (AWCI). The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical information, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assessment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected basins at the data integration and analysis system of Japan (DIAS) and demonstration projects were carried out showing potential of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.     

Numerical investigation of the impact of rock mass properties on propagation of ground vibration

Natural Hazards - Ground vibrations induced by the blasting of explosives can cause damage to the slope stability of mines. The important indicators of rock mass such as the geological...     

Pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic displacements associated with the Bhuj 2001 earthquake derived from recent and historic geodetic data

The 26th January 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh Rift Basin which has a long history of major earthquakes. Great Triangulation Survey points (GTS) were first installed in the area in 1856–60 and some of these were measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) in the months of February and July 2001. Despite uncertainties associated with repairs and possible reconstruction of points in the past century, the re-measurements reveal pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic deformation related to Bhuj earthquake. More than 25 Μ-strain contraction north of the epicenter appears to have occurred in the past 140 years corresponding to a linear convergence rate of approximately 10 mm/yr across the Rann of Kachchh. Motion of a single point at Jamnagar 150 km south of the epicenter in the 4 years prior to the earthquake, and GTS-GPS displacements in Kathiawar suggests that pre-seismic strain south of the epicenter was small and differs insignificantly from that measured elsewhere in India. Of the 20 points measured within 150 km of the epicenter, 12 were made at existing GTS points which revealed epicentral displacements of up to 1 m, and strain changes exceeding 30 Μ-strain. Observed displacements are consistent with reverse co-seismic slip. Re-measurements in July 2001 of one GTS point (Hathria) and eight new points established in February reveal post-seismic deformation consistent with continued slip on the Bhuj rupture zone.     

Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States

Natural Hazards - Human exposure to floods continues to increase, driven by changes in hydrology and land use. Adverse impacts amplify for socially vulnerable populations, who disproportionately...     

Stability Analysis of Landslide near Dewal Village along Murree-Muzaffarabad Road,Pakistan

This study presents a detailed geological and geotechnical analysis of Dewal landslide along Murree-Muzaffarabad road, Pakistan. The study area is situated in a tectonically active region of the earth where mass movements like rock fall, rockslides and slumps cause adverse economic loss through disruption of travelling on roads. The study has the main focus on factors responsible for its instability together with stability analysis using limit equilibrium method by use of computer program Slide (version 5.0). The input parameters of rock mass was evaluated by field investigations and laboratory testing. To analyze the net deposit and net slide mass of the landslide area, multi-date point’s data of 2008 and 2012 of the slide area was obtained and their digital elevation models were generated by using Inverse distance weighting (IDW) technique in ArcGIS 9.3. The study has concluded that the present slope instability is the function of a specific deformation pattern in the rock units (leading towards the possibility of a shear plane under the slid mass), surface and subsurface drainage and the engineering behavior of the overburden and underlying rock units. This study recommends several protection parameters for landslide and suggests that detailed investigation of Dewal landslide is required for long term stability.     

The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).