The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).     

A Seismic Hazard Map Based on Geology and Shear-wave Velocity in Rawalpindi–Islamabad,Pakistan

The ‘twin cities' district of Rawalpindi–Islamabad is among the most endangered seismic regions in Pakistan,with the seismic hazard assessed(0.32 g) to intensity IX MMI for a 475-year return period. A seismic hazard map for Rawalpindi–Islamabad is presented herein, based on 85 shear-wave velocity(VS) profiles obtained through geophysical H/V measurements and from the geological map of the region. Relationships between the average top thirty-meter shear-wave velocities(VS30) and surficial geological units have been determined. The peak ground acceleration(PGA) maps for 150,475 and 2475-year return periods were converted into a seismic intensity map. Intensity increments for different soils were used to compute PGA values for 150, 475 and 2475-year return periods. Sites located on softer ground experienced a higher degree of damage from moderate earthquakes. Due to the presence of soft clay or lique?able soil and lateral spreading, a few locations may be classified as hybrid sites class C and D. This map is a critical step in facilitating code-based site classification and seismic design throughout Rawalpindi–Islamabad. Although the seismic hazard map based on seismic intensities is no longer used in engineering geology, it is still important in seismological analysis and for civil protection purposes.     

Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States

Natural Hazards - Human exposure to floods continues to increase, driven by changes in hydrology and land use. Adverse impacts amplify for socially vulnerable populations, who disproportionately...     

Petrology of calc-alkaline/adakitic basement hosting A-type Neoproterozoic granites of the Malani igneous suite in Nagar Parkar,SE Sindh,Pakistan

The Nagar Parkar area contains three distinct groups of rocks, from oldest to youngest, (1) basement rocks ranging in composition from mafic to (quartz)diorite, tonalite, granite, and younger granodiorite, (2) granite plutons similar in general features to those of the Malani Igneous Suite of Rajasthan, and (3) abundant mafic, felsic and rhyolitic dykes. The basement rocks show strong brittle and local plastic deformation, and epidote amphibolite/upper greenschist facies metamorphic overprint. The chemistry of the basement rocks contrasts the commonly agreed within plate A-type character of the Neoproterozoic granites (group 2) that are emplaced into them. The basement rock association is calc-alkaline; the granodiorite displays the compositional characteristics of adakites, whereas the tonalite has intermediate composition between typical adakite and classical island arc rocks. This paper presents detailed petrography of the basement rocks and compares their geochemistry with those of the group 2 granites as well as with rocks from other tectonic environments. It is proposed that the Nagar Parkar basement is part of a 900–840 Ma magmatic arc that was deformed before it was intruded 800–700 Ma ago by the A-type continental granitic rocks followed by mafic to felsic dykes.     

Mapping sediment thickness of Islamabad city using empirical relationships: Implications for seismic hazard assessment

Soft sediments make an important component of the subsurface lithology, especially in areas underlain by river/stream basins. Occupying a position directly above the bedrock up to the land surface, these soft sediments can range in thickness from few centimeters to hundreds of meters. They carry a special nuisance in seismic hazards, as they serve as a source of seismic amplification that may enhance the seismic shaking of many folds. Determination of the thickness of the soft sediments is therefore crucial in seismic hazard analysis. A number of studies in recent years have demonstrated that frequency and amplitude spectrum obtained from the noise measurements during the recording of natural seismicity can be used to obtain thickness of soft sediments covering the bedrock. Nakamura (1989) presented a technique to determine such spectrum using ratio of horizontal to vertical components of the Rayleigh waves. The present study is based on an extensive set of microtremor measurements carried out in the Islamabad city, Pakistan. Fundamental frequencies were obtained from weak motion sensors and Tromino Engy Plus instruments to show that the correlation is clearly valid for a wide range of sediment thickness. A simple formula was derived for the investigated area to determine directly the thickness of sediments from the main peaks in the H/V spectrum for seismometer and Tromino data separately. A comparison is made between sediment thicknesses derived from empirical relations developed in this study with those given in literature to demonstrate a positive correlation. The correlation of instrumental resonant frequencies with calculated resonant frequencies (theoretical) suggests that the relation derived from the noise measurements mostly depends on the velocity depth function of the shear wave. The fundamental frequency of the main peak of spectral ratio of H/V using the both instruments correlates well with the thickness of sediments at the site obtained from the borehole data. It is found out that there is a wide variation in soft-sediment thickness in the Islamabad area, but as a general rule, soft sediments are thicker adjacent to stream courses compared to the areas intervening the streams. The distribution of sediments in the studied area is illustrated by means of cross sections constructed from results of the microtremor analyses and available borehole data, which provides a visual distribution of the soft sediments underlying the Islamabad city.     

Pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic displacements associated with the Bhuj 2001 earthquake derived from recent and historic geodetic data

The 26th January 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh Rift Basin which has a long history of major earthquakes. Great Triangulation Survey points (GTS) were first installed in the area in 1856–60 and some of these were measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) in the months of February and July 2001. Despite uncertainties associated with repairs and possible reconstruction of points in the past century, the re-measurements reveal pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic deformation related to Bhuj earthquake. More than 25 Μ-strain contraction north of the epicenter appears to have occurred in the past 140 years corresponding to a linear convergence rate of approximately 10 mm/yr across the Rann of Kachchh. Motion of a single point at Jamnagar 150 km south of the epicenter in the 4 years prior to the earthquake, and GTS-GPS displacements in Kathiawar suggests that pre-seismic strain south of the epicenter was small and differs insignificantly from that measured elsewhere in India. Of the 20 points measured within 150 km of the epicenter, 12 were made at existing GTS points which revealed epicentral displacements of up to 1 m, and strain changes exceeding 30 Μ-strain. Observed displacements are consistent with reverse co-seismic slip. Re-measurements in July 2001 of one GTS point (Hathria) and eight new points established in February reveal post-seismic deformation consistent with continued slip on the Bhuj rupture zone.     

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues, it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain. Therefore, the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative. Adaptive state estimator (ASE) is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique, thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters. The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and /or random switching of input and measurement biases. The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE, which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10% in 2-dimensional problems. Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios. Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor, Recursive Least Square Estimator (RLSE) due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes. ASE’s inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE, resulting from the complexity of algorithm, was also noticed. The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.     

A comparison between above-water surface and subsurface spectral reflectances collected over inland waters

The objective of the research was to undertake a quantitative comparison of spectral-reflectance measurements made slightly above the surface of water bodies with the measurements made slightly below the surface. The study is focused on three rivers; two in Georgia, USA and one in Japan. As expected, the differences in reflectance are not constant and vary with the wavelength. The contribution of surface-reflection effects to the surface reflectance measured slightly above the water is both pronounced and highly variable, but although they do alter the magnitude of the upwelling signal, they do not change the general shape of the spectral profiles. The correction of surface-reflection effects by assuming a proportionality factor (ρ) is not considered to be efficient for inland fresh water bodies. For in situ spectroscopy, the recommended approach is to measure upwelling radiance slightly below the water's surface as a means of minimizing extraneous noise. Researchers should be aware of the potential for diminishing the validity of findings because of measurement errors.     

Groundwater resource development in Jamui District,Bihar, India: an overview

Because agriculture is the main source of livelihood for the bulk of the population in Jamui District, the importance of developing irrigation facilities in any programme of economic regeneration can hardly be over emphasized. It is, therefore, imperative that groundwater development be considered as an important step to drought mitigation in the Jamui district. The present study was carried out in such a way that technical and economic viability of any groundwater development plan can be thoroughly scrutinized. In this paper the hydrogeological framework of the district was established based on aquifer disposition, orientation of potential fracture systems and their hydraulic characteristics. Considering the aquifer geometry and yield potential of different structures, a blueprint for a groundwater development plan was prepared. An economic analysis of the development plan also was attempted. The analysis yielded results that made it possible to evaluate parameters such as cost–benefit ratio, incremental benefits and internal rate of return used to assess the economic viability of the groundwater development plan. Electronic Publication