Recognition of the time and level of emplacement of the Sillai Patti carbonatite complex,Malakand Division,Northwest Pakistan: Constraints from fission-track dating

The Sillai Patti carbonatite complex represents the second largest carbonatite body of the Peshawar Plain Alkaline Igneous Province of northern Pakistan. It is situated about 20 km west of Malakand, near Sillai Patti village. Here, the carbonatite occurs along a fault in the form of a sheet striking in the NNE–SSW direction and dipping towards south. The carbonatite body is about 12 km long and 2–20 m thick, predominantly intruded along the faulted contact of metasediments and granite gneiss but locally, within the metasediments.A fission-track age of 29.40 ± 1.47 Ma was obtained for the Sillai Patti carbonatite complex. Close resemblance of fission-track apatite age of this study with the fission-track as well as other high temperature radiometric ages from the same and the neighboring carbonatite complexes of the alkaline belt of northern Pakistan suggests emplacement of the Sillai Patti carbonatite complex at higher crustal level and subsequent extremely fast cooling to near ambient temperatures (<60 °C) required for the complete retention of fission tracks in apatite. The age data also point out that the fission-track age of 29.40 ± 1.47 Ma of this study is the age of intrusion of the carbonatitic magma of Sillai Patti carbonatite complex to shallow, near-surface level.Comparison of the uplift induced denudation rates of the region with the world data clearly reflects the presence of a post collisonal extensional environment in the region south of Main Mantle Thrust during Oligocene time. This strongly negates the idea of the earlier workers of emplacement of the carbonatite complexes of the Loe-Shilman and Sillai Patti areas along thrust faults during Oligocene.     

Adaptive state estimation of groundwater contaminant boundary input flux in a 2-dimensional aquifer

In many circumstances involving heat and mass transfer issues,it is considered impractical to measure the input flux and the resulting state distribution in the domain.Therefore,the need to develop techniques to provide solutions for such problems and estimate the inverse mass flux becomes imperative.Adaptive state estimator(ASE)is increasingly becoming a popular inverse estimation technique which resolves inverse problems by incorporating the semi-Markovian concept into a Bayesian estimation technique,thereby developing an inverse input and state estimator consisting of a bank of parallel adaptively weighted Kalman filters.The ASE is particularly designed for a system that encompasses independent unknowns and/or random switching of input and measurement biases.The present study describes the scheme to estimate the groundwater input contaminant flux and its transient distribution in a conjectural two-dimensional aquifer by means of ASE,which in particular is because of its unique ability to efficiently handle the process noise giving an estimation of keeping the relative error range within 10%in 2-dimensional problems.Numerical simulation results show that the proposed estimator presents decent estimation performance for both smoothly and abruptly varying input flux scenarios.Results also show that ASE enjoys a better estimation performance than its competitor,Recursive Least Square Estimator(RLSE)due to its larger error tolerance in greater process noise regimes.ASE's inherent deficiency of being slower than the RLSE,resulting from the complexity of algorithm,was also noticed.The chosen input scenarios are tested to calculate the effect of input area and both estimators show improved results with an increase in input flux area especially as sensors are moved closer to the assumed input location.     

Dam-break risk analysis of the Attabad landslide dam in Pakistan and emergency countermeasures

The Attabad landslide dam caused significant property losses and many human casualties in Pakistan, and also greatly affected the operation of the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway (KKH). This paper discusses the risk of dam breach and hazards to the KKH project construction site following a dam breach. The paper examines the following three topics. (1) The geomorphologic dimensionless blockage index (DBI) and the analogy method were used to analyze the stability of the Attabad landslide dam. The long-term behaviors of landslide dams downstream of the Attabad landslide dam indicate that the risk of a dam breach exists, but the probability of a total dam failure is low. (2) The peak discharge of a potential breach of the Attabad landslide dam was calculated for scenarios in which 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, and total failure of the dam was breached. The potential breach discharge decreases with the downstream distance. (3) The potential impacts of the landslide dam breach on the KKH project construction site were analyzed. Based on the composition of the landslide dam, the probability of a 1/3 dam breach is high. To ensure the safety of downstream areas, disaster preparedness plans that correspond to the 1/2 dam breach scenario should be developed. Based on experience in addressing the landslide dam that was caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake, artificial controlled drainage measures are suggested and provide a technical reference for addressing the Attabad landslide dam and achieving recovery and normal operation of KKH.     

Mapping sediment thickness of Islamabad city using empirical relationships: Implications for seismic hazard assessment

Soft sediments make an important component of the subsurface lithology, especially in areas underlain by river/stream basins. Occupying a position directly above the bedrock up to the land surface, these soft sediments can range in thickness from few centimeters to hundreds of meters. They carry a special nuisance in seismic hazards, as they serve as a source of seismic amplification that may enhance the seismic shaking of many folds. Determination of the thickness of the soft sediments is therefore crucial in seismic hazard analysis. A number of studies in recent years have demonstrated that frequency and amplitude spectrum obtained from the noise measurements during the recording of natural seismicity can be used to obtain thickness of soft sediments covering the bedrock. Nakamura (1989) presented a technique to determine such spectrum using ratio of horizontal to vertical components of the Rayleigh waves. The present study is based on an extensive set of microtremor measurements carried out in the Islamabad city, Pakistan. Fundamental frequencies were obtained from weak motion sensors and Tromino Engy Plus instruments to show that the correlation is clearly valid for a wide range of sediment thickness. A simple formula was derived for the investigated area to determine directly the thickness of sediments from the main peaks in the H/V spectrum for seismometer and Tromino data separately. A comparison is made between sediment thicknesses derived from empirical relations developed in this study with those given in literature to demonstrate a positive correlation. The correlation of instrumental resonant frequencies with calculated resonant frequencies (theoretical) suggests that the relation derived from the noise measurements mostly depends on the velocity depth function of the shear wave. The fundamental frequency of the main peak of spectral ratio of H/V using the both instruments correlates well with the thickness of sediments at the site obtained from the borehole data. It is found out that there is a wide variation in soft-sediment thickness in the Islamabad area, but as a general rule, soft sediments are thicker adjacent to stream courses compared to the areas intervening the streams. The distribution of sediments in the studied area is illustrated by means of cross sections constructed from results of the microtremor analyses and available borehole data, which provides a visual distribution of the soft sediments underlying the Islamabad city.     

Multimedia environmental analysis of PCBs fate and transport mechanism through a case study of transformer oil leakage

Transformer oil leakage having large quantity of PCBs is one of the most deplorable incidents resulting in huge negative impacts on the environment. In this paper, two different models, i.e. CHEMCAN and the hydrocarbon spill screening models, were applied to the case study adapted from a real case of PCBs in transformer oil spill in Montreal. The oil migration was examined in three dimensions including site-specific data, soil characteristics and hydrogeological properties. This study aims to investigate the fate, transport and transformation rates of PCB in the soil, the unsaturated and the saturated zones. The proposed modelling concept helps to define the processes to be used in characterization of soil and subsurface environment as a receptor of transformer oil spill. This study includes the simulation techniques for assessing the effect of PCBs on groundwater and soil. Results from multimedia environmental model and HSSM model verify with each other, and both show that 92.7 % of PCBs were found in soil as compared to groundwater. Considering decay and sorption processes at spill location, concentration of PCBs in soil was >50 mg/kg. This study can serve as a basis for further analysis and assist in selection of remediation technique.     

Back-arc basin assemblages in Kohistan,Northern Pakistan

Abstract

The east central part of the Kohistan magmatic arc is made up principally of the Jaglot Group. From bottom to top it consists of I) paragneisses and schists intercalated with amphibolites and calc-silicates (Gilgit Formation), II) Gashu-Confluence Volcanics (GCV) and III) the Thelichi Formation comprising a volcanic base (Majne volcanics) and turbidites, marble, volcanoclastic sediments and lava flows. Metamorphic grade varies up to the sillimanite zone. The GCV are correlated with the Chalt volcanics and the Thelichi Formation with the Yasin Group. Other lithologies include the Chilas Complex, the Kohistan Batholith and part of the Kamila Amphibolite. Metavolcanics show a broad range in chemical composition. Geochemical parameters used to specify the tecto-nomagmatic regime suggest affinities of both island arc and MORB-like back-arc basin basalts. Kohistan can be divided into three tectonic zones, I) the southern (Kamila) zone comprises amphibolitized basalts, and mafic and ultramafic rocks, II) the central Chilas Complex, and III) the northern (Gilgit) zone i.e., the Jaglot Group. Previous tectonic models considered the southern two zones as the crust of a Cretaceous island arc. This investigation concludes that only the southern zone represents a true island arc. The Jaglot Group derives from back-arc basin assemblages and the Chilas Complex is a magmatic diapir emplaced in the back-arc basin.     

Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar City, Pakistan

Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.     

Astrophysical naturally moderated classical positron beam interaction with nonlinear waves in nonextensive astrophysical plasmas

The positron acoustic shock and solitary wave are explored in nonextensive electron-positron-ion plasma. The plasma system under-consideration, consists of a classical positron beam, q distributed electrons and positively charged bulky ions constitute a neutralizing background. The nonlinear Korteweg-de Vries and Burger equations are derived by employing the standard reductive perturbation method. The positron acoustic wave in linear limit is also discussed for dissipative as well as nondissipative cases of nonextensive plasmas. The plasma parameters such as, the concentration of neutralizing ions background, beam velocity, temperature and q parameter of the nonextensive electrons are noticed to significantly affect the positron acoustic shock and solitary waves. Our findings may be helpful in the understanding of laboratory beam plasma interaction experiments as well as the astrophysical nonextensive plasmas interacting with positron beam.     

River management system development in Asia based on Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) under GEOSS

This paper introduces the process of development and practical use implementation of an advanced river management system for supporting integrated water resources management practices in Asian river basins under the framework of GEOSS Asia water cycle initiative (AWCI). The system is based on integration of data from earth observation satellites and in-situ networks with other types of data, including numerical weather prediction model outputs, climate model outputs, geographical information, and socio-economic data. The system builds on the water and energy budget distributed hydrological model (WEB-DHM) that was adapted for specific conditions of studied basins, in particular snow and glacier phenomena and equipped with other functions such as dam operation optimization scheme and a set of tools for climate change impact assessment to be able to generate relevant information for policy and decision makers. In situ data were archived for 18 selected basins at the data integration and analysis system of Japan (DIAS) and demonstration projects were carried out showing potential of the new system. It included climate change impact assessment on hydrological regimes, which is presently a critical step for sound management decisions. Results of such three case studies in Pakistan, Philippines, and Vietnam are provided here.     

Pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic displacements associated with the Bhuj 2001 earthquake derived from recent and historic geodetic data

The 26th January 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh Rift Basin which has a long history of major earthquakes. Great Triangulation Survey points (GTS) were first installed in the area in 1856–60 and some of these were measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) in the months of February and July 2001. Despite uncertainties associated with repairs and possible reconstruction of points in the past century, the re-measurements reveal pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic deformation related to Bhuj earthquake. More than 25 Μ-strain contraction north of the epicenter appears to have occurred in the past 140 years corresponding to a linear convergence rate of approximately 10 mm/yr across the Rann of Kachchh. Motion of a single point at Jamnagar 150 km south of the epicenter in the 4 years prior to the earthquake, and GTS-GPS displacements in Kathiawar suggests that pre-seismic strain south of the epicenter was small and differs insignificantly from that measured elsewhere in India. Of the 20 points measured within 150 km of the epicenter, 12 were made at existing GTS points which revealed epicentral displacements of up to 1 m, and strain changes exceeding 30 Μ-strain. Observed displacements are consistent with reverse co-seismic slip. Re-measurements in July 2001 of one GTS point (Hathria) and eight new points established in February reveal post-seismic deformation consistent with continued slip on the Bhuj rupture zone.