Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (M_W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M_W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.     

Seismic fragility functions for code compliant and non-compliant RC SMRF structures in Pakistan

Fragility functions are derived for low-rise code compliant & non-compliant special moment resisting frames (SMRFs). Non-compliant SMRFs those built in low strength concrete and lacking confining ties in joint panel zones, commonly found in developing countries. Shake table tests were performed on single-storey and two-storey 1:3 reduced scale representative frames to understand the damage mechanism and develop deformation-based damage scale. The non-compliant SMRF experienced column flexure cracking, longitudinal bar-slip in beam and observed with cover concrete spalling from the joint panels. The code compliant SMRF experienced flexure cracks in beam/column, and experienced joint cracking under extreme shaking. Numerical modeling technique is developed for inelastic modeling of reinforced concrete frame with beam bar-slip and joint damageability using SeismoStruct. Natural accelerograms were used to analyze the considered frames through incremental dynamic analyses in SeismoStruct. A probabilistic based approach was used to derive fragility functions for the considered frames. An example case study is presented for damageability evaluation of structures for earthquakes of various return periods (43, 72, 475, 2475 years).     

Recent developments of the Middle East catalog

This article summarizes a recent study in the framework of the Global Earth model (GEM) and the Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) project to establish the new catalog of seismicity for the Middle East, using all historical (pre-1900), early and modern instrumental events up to 2006. According to different seismicity, which depends on geophysical, geological, tectonic, and seismicity data, this region is subdivided to nine subregions, consisting of Alborz–Azerbaijan, Afghanistan–Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Caucasus, Central Iran, Kopeh–Dagh, Makran, Zagros, and Turkey (Eastern Anatolia; after 30° E). After omitting the duplicate events, aftershocks, and foreshocks by using the Gruenthal method, and uniform all magnitude to Mw scale, 28,244 main events remain for the new catalog of Middle East from 1250 B.C. through 2006. The magnitude of completeness (Mc) was determined as 4.9 for five out of nine subregions, where the least values of Mc were found to be 4.2. The threshold of Mc is around 5.5, 5.0, 4.5, and 4.0, for the time after 1950, 1963, 1975, and 2000, respectively. The average of teleseismic depths in all regions is less than 15 km. Totally, majority of depth for Kopeh–Dagh and Central Iran, Zagros, and Alborz–Azerbaijan, approximately, is 15, 13, and 11 km and for Afghanistan–Pakistan, Caucasus, Makran, Turkey (after 30° E), and Saudi Arabia is about 9 km.     

Statistical landslide susceptibility assessment of the Mansehra and Torghar districts,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province,Pakistan

This paper presents laboratory experiments and numerical simulations of effects of submerged obstacles on tsunami-like solitary wave and its run-up. This study was carried out for the breaking and non-breaking solitary waves on 1:19.85 uniform slope which contains a submerged obstacle. New laboratory experiments are performed to describe the mitigation of tsunami amplitude and run-up under the effect of submerged obstacles. We are based on experimental results obtained to validate the numerical model. The numerical modeling using COULWAVE aims essentially to show the effect of the obstacle on the shape of solitary wave and the limit of this effect. Using a multiple nonlinear regression, we have determined a model to estimate height of run-up according to the amplitude of the wave and the obstacle peak depth.     

Household-level disaster-induced losses and rural–urban migration: Experience from world’s one of the most disaster-affected countries

Losses due to natural disasters induce rural–urban migration throughout the world. It is also a major driver of population influx in Dhaka city, the capital of one of the most disaster-affected countries in the world, Bangladesh. While the relationship between natural disasters and migration is evident, the magnitude of household-level losses inducing rural–urban migration has not been widely discussed. This paper approaches this issue based on an empirical study. Using appropriate sampling procedure, a total of 407 households in Dhaka statistical metropolitan area were interviewed. This research finds out that 18.43% of rural–urban migrants in Dhaka city are disaster induced. A sharp drop in income immediately after the disaster is the predominant reason behind their migration. The river bank erosion-affected migrants encountered as high as 89% drop in income, whereas the flood-affected migrants experienced 70% drop. This article identifies five post-disaster components that ultimately determine migration. To conclude, the paper offers several approaches to minimize mass rural out-migration.

     

Silicate‐oxide mineral chemistry of mafic–ultramafic rocks as an indicator of the roots of an island arc: The Chilas Complex,Kohistan (Pakistan)

The Chilas Complex is a major lower crustal component of the Cretaceous Kohistan island arc and one of the largest exposed slices of arc magma chamber in the world. Covering more than 8000 km², it reaches a current tectonic width of around 40 km. It was emplaced at 85 Ma during rifting of the arc soon after the collision of the arc with the Karakoram plate. Over 85% of the Complex comprises homogeneous, olivine‐free gabbronorite and subordinate orthopyroxene–quartz diorite association (MGNA), which contains bodies of up to 30 km² of ultramafic–mafic–anorthositic association (UMAA) rocks. Primary cumulate textures, igneous layering, and sedimentary structures are well preserved in layered parts of the UMAA in spite of pervasive granulite facies metamorphism. Mineral analyses show that the UMAA is characterized by more magnesian and more aluminous pyroxene and more calcic plagioclase than those in the MGNA. High modal abundances of orthopyroxene, magnetite and ilmenite (in MGNA), general Mg–Fe–Al spatial variations, and an MFA plot of whole‐rock analyses suggest a calc‐alkaline origin for the Complex. Projection of the pyroxene compositions on the Wo–En–Fs face is akin to those of pyroxenes from island arcs gabbros. The presence of highly calcic plagioclase and hornblende in UMAA is indicative of hydrous parental arc magma. The complex may be a product of two‐stage partial melting of a rising mantle diaper. The MGNA rocks represent the earlier phase melting, whereas the UMAA magma resulted from the melting of the same source depleted by the extraction of the earlier melt phase. Some of the massive peridotites in the UMAA may either be cumulates or represent metasomatized and remobilized upper mantle. The Chilas Complex shows similarities with many other (supra)subduction‐related mafic–ultramafic complexes worldwide.     

Analysis and farmers’ perception of climate change in the Kashmir Valley,India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Analysis of climatic variables is important for the detection and attribution of climate change trends and has received considerable attention from researchers...     

Petroleum geochemistry of the Potwar Basin,Pakistan: II – Oil classification based on heterocyclic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

In a previous study, oils in the Potwar Basin (Upper Indus) of Pakistan were correlated based on the dissimilarity of source and depositional environment of organic matter (OM) using biomarkers and bulk stable isotopes. This study is aimed at supporting the classification of Potwar Basin oils into three groups (A, B and C) using the distribution of alkylnaphthalenes, alkylphenanthrenes, alkyldibenzothiophenes, alkyldibenzofurans, alkylfluorenes, alkylbiphenyls, triaromatic steroids, methyl triaromatic steroids, retene, methyl retenes and cadalene. The higher relative abundance of specific methyl isomers of naphthalene and phenanthrene and the presence of diagnostic aromatic biomarkers clearly indicate the terrigenous and oxic depositional environment of OM for group A oil. Group B and C oils are of marine origin and the aforementioned heterocyclic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HCs) differentiate them clearly into two different groups. The relative percentages of heterocyclic aromatic HCs reveal that the distribution of these compounds is controlled by the depositional environment of the OM. Sulfur-containing heterocyclic aromatic HCs are higher in crude oils generated from source rocks deposited in suboxic depositional environments, while oxygen-containing heterocyclic aromatic HCs in combination with alkylfluorenes are higher in marine oxic and deltaic oils. Biomarker and aromatic HC parameters do not indicate significant differences in the thermal maturity of Potwar Basin oils. Triaromatic and methyl triaromatic steroids support the division of Potwar Basin oils into the three groups and their relative abundances are related to source OM rather than thermal maturity. Significantly higher amounts of C₂₀ and C₂₁ triaromtic steroids and the presence or absence of long chain triaromatic steroids (C₂₅, C₂₆, C₂₇, and C₂₈) indicates that these compounds are probably formed from different biological precursors in each group. Different isomers of methyl substituted triaromatic steroids are present only for short chain compounds (C₂₀–C₂₂) and the origin of these compounds may be short chain methyl steranes from unknown biological precursors.