METAMODELLING APPROACH TO DESIGN THE ALLUVIAL CHANNELS AT INCIPIENT MOTION

The design of an alluvial channel for critical conditions requires information about four basic parameters, i.e., particle size d, water depth y, energy slope Sf and average velocity u. Most of the investigators use a standard or modified form of the critical Shields’ parameter to define the incipient motion of a particular grain size. Shields’ diagram describes an iterative process of determining the incipient motion parameters. To design a process that does not require iteration, one must know the resistance relationship. The absence of a universal resistance equation increases the difficulty of defining the model. Metamodelling techniques are widely used in engineering designs to simulate a complex system. This article describes a Metamodel, which employs the radial basis function (RBF) network to predict the average velocity u and energy slope Sf based on experimental data of incipient condition. With the help of the Metamodel generated by the RBF network, design curves have been presented to predict the u and Sf based on known values of the particle size and water depth. It has been found that this model improves the predictability of incipient motion.     

Crustal Configuration of the Northwest Himalaya Based on Modeling of Gravity Data

The gravity response and crustal shortening in the Himalayan belt are modeled in detail for the first time in the NW Himalaya. The Bouguer gravity anomaly along a ~450-km-long (projected) transect from the Sub-Himalaya in the south to the Karakoram fault in the north across the Indus-Tsangpo Suture Zone is modeled using spectral analysis, wavelet transform and forward modeling. The spectral analysis suggests three-layer interfaces in the lithosphere at 68-, 34- and 11-km depths corresponding to the Moho, the Conrad discontinuity and the Himalayan decollement thrust, respectively. The coherence, admittance and cross spectra suggest crustal shortening because of convergence compensated by lithospheric folding at 536- and 178-km wavelength at the Moho and the upper-crustal level. An average effective elastic thickness of around 31 km is calculated using the coherence method. The gravity data are modeled to demarcate intracrustal to subcrustal regional thrust/fault zones. The geometrical constraints of these faults are obtained in the space scale domain using the wavelet transform, showing good correlation with the major tectonic boundaries. The crustal configuration along the transect shows how the Moho depth increases from 45 to 80 km towards the north with the locus of flexure of the Indian crust beneath the Higher Himalayan zone. The combination of forward modeling and wavelet analysis gives insight into the subsurface extent and geometry of regional structures across the NW Himalaya.     

Efficient two-dimensional magnetotellurics modelling using implicitly restarted Lanczos method

This paper presents an efficient algorithm, FDA2DMT (Free Decay Analysis for 2D Magnetotellurics (MT)), based on eigenmode approach to solve the relevant partial differential equation, for forward computation of two-dimensional (2D) responses. The main advantage of this approach lies in the fact that only a small subset of eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors are required for satisfactory results. This small subset (pre-specified number) of eigenmodes are obtained using shift and invert implementation of Implicitly Restarted Lanczos Method (IRLM). It has been established by experimentation that only 15–20% smallest eigenvalue and corresponding eigenvectors are sufficient to secure the acceptable accuracy. Once the single frequency response is computed using eigenmode approach, the responses for subsequent frequencies can be obtained in negligible time. Experiment design results for validation of FDA2DMT are presented by considering two synthetic models from COMMEMI report, Brewitt-Taylor and Weaver (1976) model and a field data based model from Garhwal Himalaya.     

Elastic thickness estimates at northeast passive margin of North America and its implications

Global estimates of the elastic thickness (Te) of the structure of passive continental margins show wide and varying results owing to the use of different methodologies. Earlier estimates of the elastic thickness of the North Atlantic passive continental margins that used flexural modelling yielded a Te value of ~20–100 km. Here, we compare these estimates with the Te value obtained using orthonormalized Hermite multitaper recovered isostatic coherence functions. We discuss how Te is correlated with heat flow distribution and depth of necking. The E–W segment in the southern study region comprising Nova Scotia and the Southern Grand Banks show low Te values, while the zones comprising the NE–SW zones, viz., Western Greenland, Labrador, Orphan Basin and the Northern Grand Bank show comparatively high Te values. As expected, Te broadly reflects the depth of the 200–400°C isotherm below the weak surface sediment layer at the time of loading, and at the margins most of the loading occurred during rifting. We infer that these low Te measurements indicate Te frozen into the lithosphere. This could be due to the passive nature of the margin when the loads were emplaced during the continental break-up process at high temperature gradients.     

Numerical study of mechanism of fold formation in a laminated rock

A set of large deformation experiments are presented to simulate folding pattern at various energy states during formation. In order to numerically simulate this phenomenon, a rectangular layer of shale is generated and compressed at various strain rates. The results reveal the variation in distribution of stress along the length of the bed. The stress distribution during elastic behaviour of shale bed at low compression rate and the change in stress distribution leading to rupture at high compression rates is discussed. Wavelength, limb length, bulk shortening, stress distribution, displacement of particles along the length of the bed is considered for comparative study of the fold pattern generated at various compression rates. The nature and position of crack generated during the formation of fold is also explained. After rupture in shale bed, the generation of fault and stress distribution in limbs of fold sliding over one another is also described.     

Solar flare induced D-region ionospheric perturbations evaluated from VLF measurements

The results of very low frequency (VLF) wave amplitude measurements carried out at the low latitude station Varanasi (geom. lat. 14^°55′N, long. 154^°E), India during solar flares are presented for the first time. The VLF waves (19.8 kHz) transmitted from the NWC-transmitter, Australia propagated in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to long distances and were recorded at Varanasi. Data are analyzed and the reflection height H′ and the sharpness factor β are evaluated. It is found that the reflection height decreases whereas sharpness factor increases with the increase of solar flare power. The H′ is found to be higher and β smaller at low latitudes than the corresponding values at mid and high latitudes. The sunspot numbers were low during the considered period 2011–2012, being the rising phase of solar cycle 24 and as a result cosmic rays may impact the D-region ionosphere. The increased ionization from the flare lowers the effective reflecting height, H′, of the D-region roughly in proportion to the logarithm of the X-ray flare intensity from a typical mid-day unperturbed value of about 71–72 km down to about 65 km for an X class flare. The sharpness (β) of the lower edge of the D-region is also significantly increased by the flare but reaches a clear saturation value of about 0.48 km^?1 for flares of magnitude greater than about X1 class.     

Modulation of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave Activity in the Tropical Pacific by ENSO

The influence of El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the Kelvin wave activity in the eastern Pacific (EP) El Nio, central Pacific (CP) El Nio, and La Nia years, respectively, to 30-yr (1982-2011) mean statistics. The convectively coupled Kelvin waves in this study are represented by the two leading modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of 2-25-day band-pass filtered daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), with the estimated zonal wavenumber of 3 or 4, period of 8 days, and eastward propagating speed of 17 ms-1 . The most significant impact of ENSO on the Kelvin wave activity is the intensification of the Kelvin waves during the EP El Nios. The impact of La Nia on the reduction of the Kelvin wave intensity is relatively weaker, reflecting the nonlinearity of tropical deep convection and the associated Kelvin waves in response to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The impact of the CP El Nio on the Kelvin waves is less significant due to relatively weaker SST anomalies and smaller spatial coverage. ENSO may also alter the frequency, wavelength, and phase speed of the Kelvin waves. This study demonstrates that low-frequency ENSO SST anomalies modulate high-frequency tropical disturbances, an example of weather-climate linkage.     

Eurasian snow cover and seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Abstract

This paper presents the relationship between Indian summer monsoon total rainfall and two parameters from Eurasian snow cover, one being the winter snow cover extent and the other the area of spring snowmelt. Satellite-derived Eurasian snow cover extent and Indian monsoon rainfall data were obtained from the NOAA/NESDIS and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1966–1985. Seasonal cyclic variations of snow cover showed a higher swing in both the winter and the spring seasons of the cycle as compared to the remaining seasons of the year in the lower region of the cycle. The established inverse relation between winter snow cover and monsoon rainfall during June to September is further extended. Winter snow cover is very strongly correlated with spring snowmelt over Eurasia. Spring snowmelt area is obtained by subtracting the May snow cover extent from that of the previous February. The variations of spring snowmelt were also compared with Indian total monsoon rainfall. The detected correlation is stronger between snowmelt and monsoon rainfall than between the winter snow cover and the monsoon rainfall. There is also a significant multiple correlation among winter snow cover, spring snowmelt and monsoon rainfall. Lastly, a significant multiple correlation suggested a multiple regression equation which might improve the climatic prediction of monsoon rainfall over India.     

Stability analysis of an open cut slope in Wardha valley coal field

Open cast mines are the prime source of coal production in India. Due to an increase in coal demand, deeper surface mines are being planned to ensure better productivity with enhanced safety of these mines. The safe working environment and continuous production of the coal calls for the safe and stable design of cut slopes. The stability analysis of this slope requires in depth geotechnical investigation which are aided by result orientated stability assessment using empirical methods and numerical simulation. In the present study, a slope was examined to understand the mechanism and comparisons were made with field observations. The investigation has involved a 32m high cut slope from an open cast mine in Wardha valley coal field which has been analyzed using a two dimensional numerical simulation. The bench slope consisted of a low strength sandstones, shales and clay sequence. Hoek-Brown strength parameters established and used as input parameters in the model. The results indicate that the slope is critically stable and may lead to failure without warning and needs proper attention.