Reconnaissance report and preliminary ground motion simulation of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The M _w = 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, caused destruction over a wide area. The earthquake cost more than 69,000 lives and the damage is reported to have left more than 5 million people homeless. It is estimated that 5.36 million buildings were destroyed and 21 million buildings were damaged in Sichuan and the nearby provinces. Economic losses due to the event are estimated to be 124 billion USD. From a field reconnaissance trip conducted in October 2008, it is evident that the combination of several factors, including mountainous landscape, strong ground shaking, extensive landslides and rock-falls, has exacerbated the human and economic consequences of this earthquake. Extensive damage occurred over a wide area due to the shear size of the earthquake rupture combined with poor quality building construction. In order to investigate the ground shaking during the earthquake, we have conducted a strong ground motion simulation study, applying a hybrid broadband frequency technique. The preliminary results show large spatial variation in the ground shaking, with the strongest ground motions along the fault plane. The simulation results have been calibrated against the recorded ground motion from several near-field stations in the area, and acceleration values of the order of 1 g are obtained, similar to what was recorded during the event. Comparison with the damage distribution observed in the field confirms that the effect of fault rupture complexity on the resulting ground motion distribution also controls to a large extent the damage distribution. The applied simulation technique provides a promising platform for predictive studies.     

A Comparison of Unstructured and Structured Principal Component Analyses and their Interpretation

Multivariate analysis is employed to investigate the structure of variations within highly heterogeneous data. Traditionally, principal component analysis (PCA) is run by analyzing the entire wireline log and using PCA scores to characterize variability within and between lithologies. In this paper, we propose a technique using only specific subsets of all well records to quantify reservoir heterogeneity due to second order lithological variability. These subsets are chosen from uniform lithofacies parts of the wireline log in order to reduce the variability in the correlation matrix that otherwise would cause lithological changes. The purpose is to assess the efficiency of structured PCA in analyzing small-scale heterogeneity that is captured by wireline logs but often masked by traditional PCA approaches. This paper shows that a structured PCA procedure based upon special lithological units is superior to an unstructured PCA, when the focus is within lithology variations. This structured procedure is applied to data from the Heidrun field, offshore mid-Norway. The results demonstrate clear benefits from added insight into the variability of a complex fluviodeltaic heterolithic sequence that poses great challenges to hydrocarbon development.     

Relating 4D seismics to reservoir geomechanical changes using a discrete element approach

A modified discrete element method is briefly introduced and used for modelling reservoir geomechanical response during fluid injection and depletion. The modified approach works as a continuum method until some local failure is initiated, after which it behaves like a discrete element method on a polygonal lattice. The method is advantageous for modelling fracture developments in rocks. It is applied here to synthetic models of two reservoirs taken from the North Sea (Gullfaks and Elgin‐Franklin). For Gullfaks, two cases of water injection were modelled, one with low horizontal effective stress and the other with low vertical effective stress. Vertical fractures are developed in the first case, whereas horizontal fractures are developed in the second case. This would not have been seen using traditional methods. Based on 4D seismics data for the Gullfaks field, one may envision that horizontal fractures could have been formed. The Elgin‐Franklin synthetic model is used to study various scenarios of changing stress field around the depleting reservoir. Based on 4D seismics data from this field, one may see changes that could be interpreted in terms of possible fault reactivation.     

Historical changes in the macrophyte community of a Norwegian softwater lake

Changes in macrophyte communities have occurred over the past decades in many oligotrophic softwater lakes with low carbon availability. Slow-growing isoetid species have been replaced by faster-growing elodeid species. Commonly, these changes are explained by anthropogenic nutrient enrichment or acidification of the lake water. Here we present a multi-proxy study in which we analysed plant macrofossils, pollen and spores, as well as sedimentological data from several cores taken from a SW Norwegian softwater lake. Our results indicate that the elodeid macrophyte Callitriche hamulata first appeared in this lake in the 1970s. Proliferation of C. hamulata occurred in the 1990s, replacing the hitherto dominant submerged Isoëtes macrophyte vegetation. Independent lines of evidence, such as diatom-inferred TP and pH reconstructions, showed no change during the past 200 years, therefore ruling out both acidification and phosphorus enrichment of the lake as possible causes for the observed change in the macrophyte community. Alternatively, expansion of Callitriche at the expense of Isoëtes may have been related to increased aquatic carbon availability, although nitrogen enrichment may also have been important.     

Climate and environment during the Younger Dryas (GS‐1) as reflected by composite stable isotope records of lacustrine carbonates at Torreberga,southern Sweden

Climatic and environmental changes during the Younger Dryas stadial (GS‐1) and preceding and following transitions are inferred from stable carbon and oxygen isotope records obtained from the sediments of ancient Lake Torreberga, southern Sweden. Event GS‐1 is represented in the sediment sequence by 3.5 m of clay containing lacustrine carbonates of various origins. Comparison of isotopic records obtained on mollusc shells, ostracod valves, and Chara encrustations precipitated during specific seasons of the year supports estimates of relative changes in both lake water and mean annual air temperatures. Variations in soil erosion rates can also be estimated from a simple isotope–mass‐balance model to separate allochthonous and autochthonous carbonate contributions to the bulk carbonate content of the sediments. The well‐known, rapid climatic shifts characterising the Last Termination in the North Atlantic region are clearly reflected in the isotopic data, as well as longer‐term changes within GS‐1. Following maximum cooling shortly after the Allerød–Younger Dryas (GI‐1–GS‐1) transition, a progressive warming and a slight increase in aquatic productivity is indicated. At the Younger Dryas–Preboreal (GS‐1–PB) transition mean annual air temperature rapidly increased by more than 5°C and summer lake‐water temperature increased by ca. 12°C. The subsequent Preboreal oscillation is characterised by an increase in soil erosion and a slight decrease in mean annual air temperature. These results are in harmony with recent findings about large‐scale climate dynamics during the Last Termination. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Responses of large-scale coronal structures to chromospheric activity

We have followed the transit of two active regions across the western solar limb during June 29 through July 2, 1980, as imaged in 3.5–16 keV X-rays by HXIS aboard the SMM. During frequent brightenings of large-scale coronal structures, hard X-ray emission in the 11–16 keV energy band was recorded up to altitudes of 76 000 km. Soft X-rays could be seen in excess of 250 000 km altitude above the photospheric active region. Many X-ray brightenings low in the corona in the active regions were followed by enhancements high in the corona in the large-scale coronal structures. Although subsequent enhancements rarely appeared in the same position, similar portions of the corona brightened intermittently, indicating that the general configuration of the coronal structures above the active regions did not change much, in spite of the frequent energy inputs. These inputs were of two kinds: nonthermal, with very fast response at high coronal altitudes within seconds or tens of seconds, and thermal, with a delay of several minutes. The nonthermal response is short-lived, reflecting the time profile of the primary source; the thermal response is more gradual and longer lasting than the primary source. In some enhancements of large-scale coronal structures both these kinds of response occur and can be clearly recognized. There are also active-region hrightenings without any response in the high corona and,vice versa, high-corona brightenings without any obvious primary source; in the latter case, it is likely that the source was hidden behind the limb.     

Multiscale mixed/mimetic methods on corner-point grids

Multiscale simulation is a promising approach to facilitate direct simulation of large and complex grid models for highly heterogeneous petroleum reservoirs. Unlike traditional simulation, approaches based on upscaling/downscaling, multiscale methods seek to solve the full flow problem by incorporating subscale heterogeneities into local discrete approximation spaces. We consider a multiscale formulation based on a hierarchical grid approach, where basis functions with subgrid resolution are computed numerically to correctly and accurately account for subscale variations from an underlying (fine-scale) geomodel when solving the global flow equations on a coarse grid. By using multiscale basis functions to discretise the global flow equations on a (moderately sized) coarse grid, one can retain the efficiency of an upscaling method and, at the same time, produce detailed and conservative velocity fields on the underlying fine grid. For pressure equations, the multiscale mixed finite-element method (MsMFEM) has been shown to be a particularly versatile approach. In this paper, we extend the method to corner-point grids, which is the industry standard for modelling complex reservoir geology. To implement MsMFEM, one needs a discretisation method for solving local flow problems on the underlying fine grids. In principle, any stable and conservative method can be used. Here, we use a mimetic discretisation, which is a generalisation of mixed finite elements that gives a discrete inner product, allows for polyhedral elements, and can (easily) be extended to curved grid faces. The coarse grid can, in principle, be any partition of the subgrid, where each coarse block is a connected collection of subgrid cells. However, we argue that, when generating coarse grids, one should follow certain simple guidelines to achieve improved accuracy. We discuss partitioning in both index space and physical space and suggest simple processing techniques. The versatility and accuracy of the new multiscale mixed methodology is demonstrated on two corner-point models: a small Y-shaped sector model and a complex model of a layered sedimentary bed. A variety of coarse grids, both violating and obeying the above mentioned guidelines, are employed. The MsMFEM solutions are compared with a reference solution obtained by direct simulation on the subgrid.     

Late-glacial cirque glaciation in parts of western Norway

Younger Dryas cirque glaciers are known to have existed beyond the Scandinavian Ice Sheet in parts of western Norway. At Kråkenes, on the outermost coast, a cirque glacier formed and subsequently wasted away during the Younger Dryas. No glacier existed there during the Allerød. Large cirque moraines, some with marine deltas and associated fans, extend into the western part of Sykkylvsfjorden. Comparison with existing late-glacial sea-level curves shows that the uppermost marine sediment in these features was deposited well above Younger Dryas sea-level, demonstrating that the cirques were occupied by glaciers before the Younger Dryas. During the Younger Dryas the cirque glaciers expanded, and some advanced across the deltas, depositing till and supplying the sediment to form lower-level fans and deltas controlled by Younger Dryas sea level. The extent of the Younger Dryas advance of some of the glaciers was, at least in part, controlled by grounding on material deposited before the Younger Dryas. The depositional history of the glacial–marine deposits in the Sykkylven area indicates that cirque glaciers existed throughout Late-glacial time and only expanded during the Younger Dryas. The sediment sequence in glacial lakes beyond cirque moraines and reconstructions of glacier equilibrium lines indicate that this was true for most cirques in western Norway. Only on the outermost coast were new glaciers formed in response to Younger Dryas climate cooling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Application of an error statistics estimation method to the PSAS forecast error covariance model

In atmospheric data assimilation systems, the forecast error covariance model is an important component. However, the paralneters required by a forecast error covariance model are difficult to obtain due to the absence of the truth. This study applies an error statistics estimation method to the Pfiysical-space Statistical Analysis System （PSAS） height-wind forecast error covariance model. This method consists of two components： the first component computes the error statistics by using the National Meteorological Center （NMC） method, which is a lagged-forecast difference approach, within the framework of the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model; the second obtains a calibration formula to rescale the error standard deviations provided by the NMC method. The calibration is against the error statistics estimated by using a maximum-likelihood estimation （MLE） with rawindsonde height observed-minus-forecast residuals. A complete set of formulas for estimating the error statistics and for the calibration is applied to a one-month-long dataset generated by a general circulation model of the Global Model and Assimilation Office （GMAO）, NASA. There is a clear constant relationship between the error statistics estimates of the NMC-method and MLE. The final product provides a full set of 6-hour error statistics required by the PSAS height-wind forecast error covariance model over the globe. The features of these error statistics are examined and discussed.     

Influence of bioturbation by Hediste diversicolor on mercury fluxes from estuarine sediments: a mesocosms laboratory experiment

Mercury, with its reactive forms being the most deleterious for the trophic chains, has been identified as a major pollutant in a few confined bodies of the coastal zone. Due to feeding, burrowing, and bioirrigation activities, infauna are known to play a crucial role in the biogeochemical processes of contaminants. The main goal of the present study is to evaluate the effects of Hediste diversicolor bioturbation on mercury fluxes from estuarine sediments in a mesocosms laboratory experiment. Additionally, an attempt was made to establish a relationship between the amount of remobilised mercury to the water column and the degree of contamination of the sediments using a mercury contamination gradient. The present experiment demonstrated that the bioturbation activity caused by the gallery-diffuser H. diversicolor did not influence the remobilisation of mercury (in dissolved reactive forms) from the sediment to the water column. The concentration of dissolved reactive mercury in the water column also did not reflect the degree of contamination in the sediments. The results obtained were in accordance with the sediment characteristics of the Mondego Estuary and Ria de Aveiro (Portugal), since they are very rich in organic matter content, iron/manganese total and hydrous oxides. These physicochemical characteristics of the sediments may partially justify the retention of mercury by these systems, even when they are subjected to bioturbation. In conclusion, sediments with high organic matter content and a high concentration of iron/manganese hydrous oxides allowed for efficient retention of mercury, and the bioturbation process did not seem to affect the system. Another conclusion from this study is that the remobilisation of mercury by bioturbation to the water column is not a fast process, requiring more than 24h. This study constitutes an important work in the area of the effects of bioturbation on mercury remobilisation. Considering the toxicity of mercury for the biota, it is essential to evaluate the real magnitude of mercury processes occurring in estuarine systems in order to obtain essential information on metal behaviour.