Diagnostics of subseasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system

Biases of subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2. The retrospective forecasts often show apparent systematic biases, which are mostly represented by the underestimation of the whole Asian monsoon. Biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around late June and early July, when ensemble spread and bias growth of winds and precipitation show a significant change over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region. The abrupt turning of bias development of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature is also captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Several features appear associated with the abrupt change in bias development: the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) begins its first northward jump and the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau commences a transition from warm bias to cold bias, and a reversal of surface temperature biases occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the SASM region. The shift of WPSH position and the transition of surface thermal bias show close relationships with the formation of bias centers in winds and precipitation. The rapid growth in bias due to the strong internal atmospheric variability during short leads seems to mainly account for the weak WPSH and SASM in the model. However, at certain stages, particularly for longer-lead predictions, the biases of slowly varying components may also play an important role in bias development of winds and precipitation.     

Photometric and polarimetric studies of three W UMa-type binaries: FZ Ori,V407 Peg and LP UMa

We present analyses of new optical photometric observations of three W UMa-type contact binaries FZ Ori, V407 Peg and LP UMa. Results from the first polarimetric observations of the FZ Ori and V407 Peg are also presented. The periods of FZ Ori, V407 Peg and LP UMa are derived to be 0.399986, 0.636884 and 0.309898 d, respectively. The O?C analyses indicate that the orbital periods of FZ Ori and LP UMa have increased with the rate of 2.28×10^?8 and 1.25×10^?6 d?yr^?1, respectively and which is explained by transfer of mass between the components. In addition to the secularly increasing rate of orbital period, it was found that the period of FZ Ori has varied in sinusoidal way with oscillation period of ～30.1 yr. The period of oscillations are most likely to be explained by the light-time effect due to the presence of a tertiary companion. Small asymmetries have been seen around the primary and secondary maxima of light curves of all three systems, which is probably due to the presence of cool/hot spots on the components. The light curves of all three systems are analysed by using Wilson-Devinney code (WD) and the fundamental parameters of these systems have been derived. The present analyses show that FZ Ori is a W-subtype, and V407 Peg and LP UMa are A-subtype of the W UMa-type contact binary systems. The polarimetric observations in B, V, R and I bands, yield average values of polarization to be 0.26±0.03, 0.22±0.02, 0.22±0.03 and 0.22±0.05 per cent for FZ Ori and 0.21±0.02, 0.29±0.03, 0.31±0.01 and 0.31±0.04 per cent for V407 Peg, respectively.     

Assimilation of Indian Doppler Weather Radar observations for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone

In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity (Z), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts.     

Advances in understanding of the mechanism for generation of earthquake thermal precursors detected by satellites

Stresses building up during an earthquake preparation phase also manifest themselves in the form of a so called increased land surface temperature (LST) leading to a thermal precursor prior to the earthquake event. This phenomenon has now been validated by our observations of short-term thermal anomalies detected by infrared satellite sensors for several recent past earthquakes around the world. The rise in infrared radiance temperature was seen to vary between 5 and 12 °C for different earthquakes. We discuss in this paper different explanations for the generation of such anomalies that have been offered. Emission of gases due to the opening and closure of micropores upon induced stresses and also the participation of ground water have been propounded as a possible cause for generation of thermal anomalies. Seismo-ionosphere coupling, by which gases like radon move to the earth–atmosphere interface and cause air ionization thus bringing about a change in air temperature, relative humidity, etc., has been put forth by some workers. A mechanism of low frequency electromagnetic emission was tested and experimented by scientists with rock masses in stressed conditions as those that exist at tectonic locations. The workers proposed the positive hole pair theory, which received support from several scientific groups. Positive holes (sites of electron deficiency) are activated in stressed rocks from pre-existing yet dormant positive hole pairs (PHPs) and their recombination at rock–air interface leads to a LST rise. A combination of remote sensing detection of rock mechanics behavior with a perception of chemistry and geophysics has been applied to propose the remote sensing rock mechanics theory. Remote sensing detections of such anomalies confirm so far proposed lab theories for such a hotly debated field as earthquake precursor study by providing unbiased observations with consistency in time and space distribution.     

Optimization and Parametrical Investigation to Assess the Reconstitution of Different Types of Indian Sand Using Portable Travelling Pluviator

By using the air pluviation technique, it is aimed to achieve the desired relative density with uniform void ratio throughout the specimen in order to maintain the homogeneity and to avoid the spatial variability. Further, in order to achieve the maximum deposition intensity, a systematic optimization study has been carried out rigorously in a test tank to determine the diameter of the orifice to be employed for the sieve plates of different porosity and the number of sieve plates to be installed in the diffuser sieve sets. The study has been conducted with four different patterns of sieves with different porosity to achieve a wide range of relative densities for four different uniformly graded Indian sands. The dynamic penetrometer which is considered to be one of the cost effective instruments has been efficiently used to determine the soil resistance at various locations of the test tank for every given height of fall in order to check the uniformity of placement density throughout the sand bed. The study reveals that the sand beds of different relative densities could be achieved using different patterns of diffuser sieves at optimum sand flow rate without compromising the uniformity. The effect of height of fall as well as porosity of diffuser sieves on the relative density of different sands has been studied in detail. The deposition intensity and the relative density obtained from the present study are compared with the values available in the literature.     

Change detection of linear features in temporally spaced remotely sensed images using edge-based grid analysis

Automatic change detection of land cover features using high-resolution satellite images, is a challenging problem in the field of intelligent remote sensing data interpretation, and is becoming more and more effective for its applications viz. urban planning and monitoring, disaster assessment etc. In the present study, a change in detection approach based on the image morphology that analyses change in the local image grids is proposed. In this approach, edges from both the images are extracted and grid wise comparison is made by probabilistic thresholding and power spectral density analysis for identifying change area. One of the advantages of the proposed methodology is that the temporal images used in the change analysis need not be radiometrically corrected as analysis is based on edge extractions. The grid-based analysis further reduces the error, which might have been introduced by image mis-registration. The proposed methodology is validated by finding the temporal changes in the linear land cover features in parts of Kolkata city, India using three different image data-sets from LISS IV, Cartosat-1 and Google earth having varied spatial resolutions of 5.8 m, 2.5 m and about 1 m, respectively. The overall accuracy in identifying changes is found to be 64.82, 73.86 and 80.93% for LISS IV, Cartosat-1 and Google earth data-set, respectively.     

Magnetosonic waveguide model of solar wind flow tubes

We consider solar wind flow tubes as a magnetosonic wave-guide. Assuming a symmetric expansion in edges of slab-modelled wave-guide, we study the propagation characteristics of magnetosonic wave in the solar wind flow tubes. We present the preliminary results and discuss their implications.     

Three-colour photometry of GH pegasi

The geometrical elements of the system GH Pegasi and a slightly improved period of 2 _. ^d 556136 have been given.     

Eclipsing binary system AV Hydrae

The eclipsing binary AV Hya has been observed photoelectrically inU, B andV filters on 15 nights. The primary eclipse appeared to be total with a totality of 23 min duration. A modified period of 0^d.6 834 062 has been obtained. Geometrical elements could only be determined for partial transit case.