Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

We examine quantitatively the ranges of applicability of the equation Ω= A+B [1− t/t _f ] ^m for predicting 'system-sized' failure times t _f in the Earth. In applications Ω is a proxy measure for strain or crack length, and A , B and the index m are model parameters determined by curve fitting. We consider constitutive rules derived from (a) Charles' law for subcritical crack growth; (b) Voight's equation; and (c) a simple percolation model, and show in each case that this equation holds only when m < 0. When m > 0, the general solution takes the form Ω = A + B [1 + t / T  ] ^m , where T   is a positive time constant, and no failure time can be defined. Reported values for volcanic precursors based on rate data are found to be within the range of applicability of time-to-failure analysis ( m < 0). The same applies to seismic moment release before earthquakes, at the expense of poor retrospective predictability of the time of the a posteriori -defined main shock. In contrast, reported values based on increasing cumulative Benioff strain occur in the region where a system-sized failure time cannot be defined ( m > 0; commonly m ≈ 0.3). We conclude on physical grounds that cumulative seismic moment is preferred as the most direct measure of seismic strain. If cumulative Benioff strain is to be retained on empirical grounds, then it is important that these data either be re-examined with the independent constraint m < 0, or that for the case 0 < m + 1 < 1, a specific correction for the time-integration of cumulative data be applied, of the form ΣΩ = At + B '{1 − [1 − t/t _f ] ^m+1 }.     

Chaos in three-body dynamics: Kolmogorov–Sinai entropy

An ensemble of Newtonian three-body models with close initial separations is investigated by following the evolution of a 'drop' in the homology map. The onset of chaos is revealed by the motion and the complex temporal deformation of the drop. In the state of advanced chaos, the drop spreads over almost the whole homology map, quite independently of its initial position on the map. A general quantitative measure of this process is the mean exponential rate of spreading, which bears resemblance to Kolmogorov–Sinai entropy; this is introduced and estimated in terms of the homology mapping. In a similar manner we also estimate the mean exponential rate of divergence of initially close-by trajectories. This is a close analogue to the Lyapunov exponent. These parameters measure two complementary aspects of dynamical instability, which is the basic mechanism of the onset of chaos.     

Short contribution: A practical alternative to Kubiena boxes for the collection of samples for micromorphological analysis

This note proposes a practical and economical alternative to using Kubiena boxes for the collection of undisturbed soil or sediment samples for micromorphological analysis. The authors promote the use of plastic electrical outlet boxes (gang boxes) that can be purchased at any hardware store for around 20 cents apiece. In addition to availability and low cost, plastic gang boxes are preferred by thin‐section laboratories over that of the aluminum Kubiena boxes because they cause less wear on the thin‐sectioning equipment. As with Kubiena boxes, the samples are impregnated directly in the gang boxes, yet they are more easily and efficiently retrieved, thus facilitating overall sample preparation and insuring a final product of equal or better quality. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The skill of atmospheric linear inverse models in hindcasting the Madden–Julian Oscillation

A suite of statistical atmosphere-only linear inverse models of varying complexity are used to hindcast recent MJO events from the Year of Tropical Convection and the Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability/Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation mission periods, as well as over the 2000–2009 time period. Skill exists for over two weeks, competitive with the skill of some numerical models in both bivariate correlation and root-mean-squared-error scores during both observational mission periods. Skill is higher during mature Madden–Julian Oscillation conditions, as opposed to during growth phases, suggesting that growth dynamics may be more complex or non-linear since they are not as well captured by a linear model. There is little prediction skill gained by including non-leading modes of variability.     

AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS' RANKINGS OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHY JOURNALS

Questionnaires sent to 500 geographers randomly selected from U.S. graduate departments solicited opinions on the quality of scholarship of articles in 34 U.S. geography journals. The five highest ranked were Quaternary Research, Annals, AAG, Arctic and Alpine Research, Geographical Review, and American Cartographer. When familiarity and quality together were ranked, the top five were Annals, AAG, Geographical Review, Professional Geographer, Economic Geography and Journal of Geography. Age and specialty of respondent were most significant in explaining ranking variations.     

Detailed data for 259 fireballs from the Canadian camera network and inferences concerning the influx of large meteoroids

Abstract— We present data for 259 meteoric fireballs observed with the Canadian camera network, including velocities, heights, orbits, luminosities along each trail, estimates of preatmospheric masses and surviving meteorites (if any) as well as membership in meteor showers. Some 213 of the events comprise an unbiased sample of the 754 fireballs observed in a total of 1.51 × 10¹⁰ km² h of clear-sky observations. The number of fireballs and the amount of clear sky in which they were recorded are given for each day of the year. We find at least 37% of the unbiased sample are members of some 15 recognized meteor showers. Preatmospheric masses, based on an assumed luminous efficiency of 0.04 for velocities >10 km s^?1, range from 1 g for some very fast fireballs up to hundreds of kilograms for the largest events. We present plots and equations for the flux, as a function of initial mass, for the entire group of fireballs and for some subgroups: meteorite-dropping objects; meteor shower members; groups that appear to be mainly of asteroidal or cometary origin; and for very fast objects. For masses of a few kilograms, asteroidal objects outnumber cometary ones. Cometary objects attain greater peak brightness than asteroidal ones of equal mass largely due to higher velocity, but also because they fragment more severely. For 66 fireballs, we estimate the meteoroid density using photometric and dynamic masses. Presumed cometary objects have typical densities near 1.0, while asteroidal values show two groups that suggest meteoroids similar to carbonaceous and ordinary chondrites. Our basic data may be used by others for further studies or to reexamine our results using assumptions different from those employed in this paper.     

Further classification of ordinary chondrites from the Monnig Collection

Abstract— Four ordinary chondrites from the Oscar Monnig Meteorite Collection were classified into compositional groups, petrologic types, and shock stages: Wray (b), Colorado, L5S2; Round Top (a), Texas, L5S3; Round Top (b), Texas, H4S3; Hassayampa, Arizona, H4S3.