Monitoring and Modeling of Syringodium filiforme (Manatee Grass) in Southern Indian River Lagoon

Decreased salinity and submarine light associated with hurricanes of 2004?C2005 impacted seagrass habitats in the Florida coastal zone. A combination of salinities ??20 and light attenuation ??1.5?m^?1 resulting from the freshwater discharge in 2005 were among the drivers for a widespread decrease in the coverage and biomass of Syringodium filiforme (manatee grass) in 2006. These observations provided an opportunity to develop and apply a modeling framework to simulate responses of S. filiforme to variable water quality. The framework connects water column variables to field monitoring of seagrass abundance and salinity growth response experiments. The base model was calibrated with macrophyte abundance observed in southern Indian River Lagoon (IRL) from 2002 to 2007 and tested against shoot data from a different time (1997?C2002) and nearby location in the IRL. Model shoot biomass (gC?m^?2) was similar to field observations (r ²?=?0.70) while responding to monthly seasonal fluctuations in salinity and light throughout the 6-year simulations. Field and model results indicated that S. filiforme growth and survival were sensitive to, and increased with, rising salinity throughout 2007. This modeling study emphasizes that discharge, salinity, and submarine light are inter-dependent variables affecting South Florida seagrass habitats on seasonal to inter-annual time scales.     

On the return period of the 2003 heat wave

Extremal events are difficult to model since it is difficult to characterize formally those events. The 2003 heat wave in Europe was not characterized by very high temperatures, but mainly the fact that night temperature were no cool enough for a long period of time. Hence, simulation of several models (either with heavy tailed noise or long range dependence) yield different estimations for the return period of that extremal event.     

Inland capture fisheries in the Mekong and their place and potential within food-led regional development

The inland capture fisheries of the Mekong represent critical sources of nutrition in rural diets in a region that faces endemic food and nutritional deficits. However within regional development debates that prioritize utilising the waters of the Mekong to generate electricity, capture fisheries are often presented as ultimately doomed, and therefore as an unfortunate, but necessary trade-off for hydropower. At the heart of these debates, lie contested definitions of development. The notion that fisheries could or should be traded-off for some other form of development exemplifies this tension.This paper draws on anthropological approaches to policy analysis based on discourse and narratives. We begin by placing the conventional wisdom regarding the place of fisheries in regional development under closer scrutiny. We then explore the potential for a counter narrative based around food and food sovereignty, in which fisheries and fishers are drivers, rather than costs of development. We argue that fisheries provide a range of livelihood and developmental values that cannot be replaced and that their management continues to hold potential for strengthening independence and self-reliance. In doing so, we build on empirical evidence from the Lao PDR, a country with a rich capture fishery but also endemic food crises, and also a national policy commitment to both poverty reduction and extensive large-scale hydropower development. As such, this paper attempts to reframe the debate on development in the Mekong. The paper has wider significance for considering how a broader focus on food and food producers can generate alternative development pathways.     

Wind-induced drift of objects at sea: The leeway field method

A method for conducting leeway field experiments to establish the drift properties of small objects (0.1-25 m) is described. The objective is to define a standardized and unambiguous procedure for condensing the drift properties down to a set of coefficients that may be incorporated into existing stochastic trajectory forecast models for drifting objects of concern to search and rescue operations and other activities involving vessels lost at sea such as containers with hazardous material.An operational definition of the slip or wind and wave-induced motion of a drifting object relative to the ambient current is proposed. This definition taken together with a strict adherence to a 10 m wind speed allows us to refer unambiguously to the leeway of a drifting object. We recommend that all objects if possible be studied using what we term the direct method, where the object’s leeway is studied directly using an attached current meter.We establish a minimum set of parameters that should be estimated for a drifting object for it to be included in the operational forecast models used for prediction of search areas for drifting objects.We divide drifting objects into four categories, depending on their size. For the smaller objects (less than 0.5 m), an indirect method of measuring the object’s motion relative to the ambient current must be used. For larger objects, direct measurement of the motion through the near-surface water masses is strongly recommended. Larger objects are categorized according to the ability to attach current meters and wind monitoring systems to them.The leeway field method proposed here is illustrated with results from field work where three objects were studied in their distress configuration; a 1:3.3 sized model of a 40-foot Shipping container, a World War II mine and a 220 l (55-gallon) oil drum.     

Biodegradation of Crude Oil by Individual Bacterial Strains and a Mixed Bacterial Consortium Isolated from Hydrocarbon Contaminated Areas

A preliminary study was undertaken to determine the optimal conditions for the biodegradation of a crude oil. Among 57 oil‐degrading bacterial cultures isolated from oil‐contaminated soil samples, Bacillus sp. IOS1‐7, Corynebacterium sp. BPS2‐6, Pseudomonas sp. HPS2‐5, and Pseudomonas sp. BPS1‐8 were selected for the study based on the efficiency of crude oil utilization. Along with the selected individual strains, a mixed bacterial consortium prepared using the above strains was also used for degradation studies. The mixed bacterial consortium showed more growth and degradation than did individual strains. At 1% crude oil concentration, the mixed bacterial consortium degraded a maximum of 77% of the crude oil. This was followed by 69% by Pseudomonas sp. BPS1‐8, 64% by Bacillus sp. IOS1‐7, 45% by Pseudomonas sp. HPS2‐5, and 41% by Corynebacterium sp. BPS2‐6. The percentage of degradation by the mixed bacterial consortium decreased from 77 to 45% as the concentration of crude oil was increased from 1 to 12%. Temperature of 35°C and pH 7 were found to be optimum for maximum degradation.     

Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Land degradation: A global perspective

Land degradation has a long history and is on the increase. It has adverse consequences for people's economies, health and well-being, and for ecosystems, and it is causally linked to population growth and inappropriate land-use practices. It is an urban as well as a rural problem. Solutions require an integrated, geographical approach. Otherwise, some problems may be ignored and others created inadvertently.     

The emergence of a neutral Herbig–Haro jet into a photoionized nebula

Recent observations show the existence of an increasing number of collimated outflows ejected by young, low-mass stars which are embedded in H  ii regions. At distances of a few tens of au from the star, at least one lobe of these outflows will be shielded from the ambient ionizing radiation by the compact, high-extinction circumstellar disc. Within these shielded regions, the jets are probably mostly neutral, similar to the jets in 'normal' Herbig–Haro (HH) objects. At larger distances, these jets emerge into the photoionized nebula, and start to be photoionized by the radiation from the ionizing photon source of the nebula.
In this paper, we model the photoionization of an initially neutral HH jet. This process begins as an ionization front at the side of the jet, which is directed towards the ionizing star of the nebula, and progresses into the beam of the jet. There are two possible solutions. In the first solution, the jet beam becomes fully ionized through the passage of an R-type ionization front. In the second solution, the ionization front slows down enough to become a D-type front (or is already a D-type front at the point in which the jet emerges into the photoionized nebula), forming a partially ionized jet beam, with an expanding photoionized region and a compressed neutral region.
We explore these two types of solutions both analytically and numerically, and discuss the observational effects introduced by this jet photoionization process, concentrating in a region of parameter space that straddles the parameters deduced for HH 444 (the jet from V 510 Orionis).     

A Temporal Comparison of Drought Impacts and Responses in the New York City Metropolitan Area

Climate impact analyses seldom examine temporal changes in the impacts and responses associated with climate anomalies. Newspaper reports, quantitative agricultural and water resource data and a survey of drought sensitive segments of society are used to compare the impacts and responses of a 1995 drought in the New York City metropolitan area to those experienced during five previous droughts. Impacts related to surface water supplies dominated each of the drought periods studied. Over time, however, changes in water consumption habits and available reservoir capacity lead to an increase in impact severity for similar meteorological conditions. To account for these non-climatic influences on water storage, a method to adjust for trends in available reservoir storage and water use is developed and implemented. Once adjusted, a fairly strong (R² = 70.9%) exponential relationship exists between the minimum reservoir level and Palmer Drought Severity Index experienced during each drought period. Unadjusted levels exhibit a considerably weaker (R² = 49.0%) relationship. Changes in water consumption and reservoir capacity also influenced the enactment of voluntary and ultimately mandatory water conservation measures. These restrictions were responsible for business and industrial impacts that varied through time as technology evolved and societal attitudes changed. Minor time-dependent changes were also evident in agricultural and wildfire impacts.