Evolution of Earth's redox state during upwelling of carbon-bearing mantle

The oxygen fugacity (f(O₂)) values recorded by diamondiferous peridotite and eclogite xenoliths from Siberia indicate that the redox state of the ancient lithosphere is heterogeneous on a scale of at least four log units, mainly in the range between the wüstite-magnetite (WM) and iron-wüstite (IW) oxygen buffers. Highly reduced peridotites can be interpreted as relict from earlier lower f(O₂). The f(O₂) values recorded by ‘fertile’ and less modified spinel peridotites from Mongolia, Baikal and Tien-Shan show that the redox state of the lithosphere beneath central Asia and Tien-Shan is heterogeneous on a scale of 2–3 log units, mainly in the range between the WM and IW + 1 oxygen buffers. These data provide evidence for the presence of a lower-f(O₂) regime of carbon-bearing mantle beneath the Baikal rift zone and Tien-Shan, and the oxidation of diapirs ascending from the asthenosphere. The ‘dry’ xenoliths from Mongolia primarily reflect closed system behavior in the upper mantle, the f(O₂) of which is buffered by ferric-ferrous redox equilibrium. The observed evolution of f(O₂) values is closely linked to the distribution of volatile species in the mantle. H₂O and CO₂ are the dominant volatiles for the more depleted and oxidized part of peridotites, and CH₄ for the more reduced and less modified part. It is proposed that the upper mantle was originally more reduced and has become progressively more oxidized, resulting perhaps largely from the preferential loss of hydrogen and carbon during melting. The oxygen budget of the upper mantle results from the opposing contributions of crustal recycling and transfer of carbon-bearing material from the deep mantle.     

Interplanetary MIST

The London MIST meeting in November covered current research using satellites to investigate planetary environments across the solar system, including our own. Earth-bound instruments, GPS and modelling also came under discussion, as did a series of results from the Cluster mission. Neil Arnold reports.     

London MIST 2004

The annual one-day meeting of the MIST (Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Solar–Terrestrial) community was held in November 2004 at Burlington House, with contributions on data and ideas ranging from Cassini to Cluster, with stops at many experiments in between.     

A hydropedological approach to simulate streamflow and soil water contents with SWAT+

Reflecting internal catchment hydrological processes in hydrological models is important for accurate predictions of the impact of climate and land-use change on water resources. Characterizing these processes is however difficult and expensive due to their dynamic nature and spatio-temporal variability. Hydropedology is a relatively new discipline focusing on the synergistic integration of hydrology, soil physics and pedology. Hydropedological interpretations of soils and soil distribution can be used to characterize key hydrological processes, especially in areas with no or limited hydrometric measurements. Here we applied a hydropedological approach to reflect flowpaths through detailed routing in SWAT+ for a 157 ha catchment (Weatherley) in South Africa. We compared the hydropedological approach and a standard (no routing) approach against measured streamflow (two weirs) and soil water contents (13 locations). The catchment was treated as ‘ungauged’ and the model was not calibrated against hydrometric measurements in order to determine the direct contribution of hydropedology on modelling efficiency. Streamflow was predicted well without calibration (NSE > 0.8; R² > 0.82) for both approaches at both weirs. The standard approach yielded slightly better streamflow predictions. The hydropedological approach resulted in considerable improvements in the simulation of soil water contents (R² increased from 0.40 to 0.49 and PBIAS decreased from 40% to 20%). The routing capacity of SWAT+ as employed in the hydropedological approach reduced the underestimation of wetland water regimes drastically and resulted in a more accurate representation of the dominant hydrological processes in this catchment. We concluded that hydropedology can be a valuable source of ‘soft data’ to reflect internal catchment structure and processes and, potentially, for realistic calibrations in other studies, especially those conducted in areas with limited hydrometric measurements.     

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Influence of the vertical distribution of cyanobacteria in the water column on the remote sensing signal

An increased intensity of cyanobacterial blooms and their potentially harmful effects have attracted the attention of environmental agencies, water authorities and the general public worldwide. Reliable operational monitoring methods of coastal waters, lakes and ponds are needed. Mapping of the surface extent of cyanobacterial blooms with remote sensing is straightforward, but recognizing waters dominated by cyanobacteria throughout the water column and quantitative mapping of cyanobacterial biomass with remote sensing is more complicated. Unlike most algae, cyanobacteria can regulate their buoyancy and move vertically in the water column. We used the Hydrolight 4.2 radiative transfer model and the specific optical properties of three species of cyanobacteria to study the impact of vertical distribution of cyanobacteria on the remote sensing signal. The results show that the vertical distribution of cyanobacteria in the water column has a significant impact on the remote sensing signal. This result indicates that developing remote sensing methods for quantitative mapping of cyanobacterial biomass is much more complex than quantitative mapping of an algal biomass that is uniformly distributed in the top mixed layer of water column.     

Observations of a Radio-Quiet Solar Preflare

The preflare phase of the flare SOL2011-08-09T03:52 is unique in its long duration, in that it was covered by the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) and the Nobeyama Radioheliograph, and because it showed three well-developed soft X-ray (SXR) peaks. No hard X-rays (HXR) are observed in the preflare phase. Here we report that no associated radio emission at 17 GHz was found either, despite the higher sensitivity of the radio instrument. The ratio between the SXR peaks and the upper limit of the radio peaks is higher by more than one order of magnitude than the ratio in regular flares. The result suggests that the ratio between acceleration and heating in the preflare phase was different than in regular flares. Acceleration to relativistic energies, if any, occurred with lower efficiency.