Assessing the influence of climate model uncertainty on EU-wide climate change impact indicators

Despite an increasing understanding of potential climate change impacts in Europe, the associated uncertainties remain a key challenge. In many impact studies, the assessment of uncertainties is underemphasised, or is not performed quantitatively. A key source of uncertainty is the variability of climate change projections across different regional climate models (RCMs) forced by different global circulation models (GCMs). This study builds upon an indicator-based NUTS-2 level assessment that quantified potential changes for three climate-related hazards: heat stress, river flood risk, and forest fire risk, based on five GCM/RCM combinations, and non-climatic factors. First, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the fractional contribution of each single input factor to the spatial variance of the hazard indicators, followed by an evaluation of uncertainties in terms of spread in hazard indicator values due to inter-model climate variability, with respect to (changes in) impacts for the period 2041–70. The results show that different GCM/RCM combinations lead to substantially varying impact indicators across all three hazards. Furthermore, a strong influence of inter-model variability on the spatial patterns of uncertainties is revealed. For instance, for river flood risk, uncertainties appear to be particularly high in the Mediterranean, whereas model agreement is higher for central Europe. The findings allow for a hazard-specific identification of areas with low vs. high model agreement (and thus confidence of projected impacts) within Europe, which is of key importance for decision makers when prioritising adaptation options.     

On the Multiplicity of the O-Star Cyg OB2 #8a and its Contribution to the γ-ray Source 3EG J2033+4118

We present the results of an intensive spectroscopic campaign in the optical waveband revealing that Cyg OB2 #8A is an O6+O5.5 binary system with a period of about 21.9 days. Cyg OB2 #8A is a bright X-ray source, as well as a non-thermal radio emitter. We discuss the binarity of this star in the framework of a campaign devoted to the study of non-thermal emitters, from the radio waveband to γ-rays. In this context, we attribute the non-thermal radio emission from this star to a population of relativistic electrons, accelerated by the shock of the wind-wind collision. These relativistic electrons could also be responsible for a putative γ-ray emission through inverse Compton scattering of photospheric UV photons, thus contributing to the yet unidentified EGRET source 3EG J2033+4118. Based partly on data Obtained at the Observatoire de Haute-Provence, France.     

Dissociative excitation of SO2 by controlled electron impact

The fragmentation of SO₂ following dissociative electron impact excitation has been studied under single collision conditions for incident electron energies up to 500 eV. The emission spectrum in the far v.u.v. spectral range (450–1100Å) shows many features arising from excited neutral oxygen and ionized oxygen and sulphur fragments. Absolute emission cross sections have been measured for the most intense lines and the maximum values were found to range from 1–12 × 10^?19 cm² with an uncertainty of approx. ± 35%. Dissociation mechanisms are discussed and in some cases the dissociation path could be uniquely identified. The striking differences between the v.u.v. emission spectrum produced by single step dissociation of SO₂ and the spectra emitted by the plasma torus around Jupiter are discussed.     

Enhancement of aquifer vulnerability indexing using the analytic-element method

Indexing methods are used for the evaluation of aquifer vulnerability and establishing guidelines for the protection of ground-water resources. The principle of the indexing method is to rank influences on groundwater to determine overall vulnerability of an aquifer to contamination. The analytic element method (AEM) of ground-water flow modeling is used to enhance indexing methods by rapidly calculating a potentiometric surface based primarily on surface-water features. This potentiometric map is combined with a digital-elevation model to produce a map of water-table depth. This is an improvement over simple water-table interpolation methods. It is physically based, properly representing surface-water features, hydraulic boundaries, and changes in hydraulic conductivity. The AEM software, SPLIT, is used to improve an aquifer vulnerability assessment for a valley-fill aquifer in western New York State. A GIS-based graphical user interface allows automated conversion of hydrography vector data into analytic elements.     

Determination of HBCD, PBDEs and MeO-BDEs in California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) stranded between 1993 and 2003

Blubber samples from male California sea lions (Zalphophus californianus) stranded between 1993 and 2003 were analyzed for 27 polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) congeners, three isomers of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and 14 methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ether (MeO-BDE) congeners. Total PBDEs ranged from 450 ng/g to 4740 ng/g wet mass and total HBCD ranged from < 0.3 ng/g to 12 ng/g wet mass. The concentration of HBCD increased from 0.7 ng/g to12.0 ng/g wet mass in sea lion blubber between 1993 and 2003. However, no significant temporal trend was observed for any of the other brominated compounds over this 10 year period. Only one of the 14 MeO-BDE congeners was detected in the blubber samples, 6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether (6-MeO-BDE 47), and concentrations ranged from < 0.2 ng/g to 12 ng/g wet mass. A bromo-, chloro-heterocyclic compound, 1,1'-dimethyl-tetrabromo-dichloro-2,2'-bipyrrole (DBP-Br4Cl2), previously reported in marine species along the Pacific coast, was also identified in the sea lion blubber. DBP-Br4Cl2 ranged from 44 ng/g wet mass to 660 ng/g wet mass and was present at concentrations rivaling the dominant PBDE congener, BDE 47 (2,2',4,4'-tetrabromodiphenyl ether). Concentrations of DBP-Br4Cl2 were positively correlated with 6-MeO-BDE 47 (r = 0.7; p < 0.05). Both of these compounds have been identified in marine algae and sponges, and studies suggest they are both produced from natural sources. This study demonstrates that brominated compounds from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources can accumulate to similar levels in marine mammals. In addition, HBCD concentrations appear to be increasing in California sea lion populations, whereas PBDE concentrations, between 1993 and 2003, were highly variable.     

Reconstruction of past methane availability in an Arctic Alaska wetland indicates climate influenced methane release during the past ~12,000?years

Atmospheric contributions of methane from Arctic wetlands during the Holocene are dynamic and linked to climate oscillations. However, long-term records linking climate variability to methane availability in Arctic wetlands are lacking. We present a multi-proxy ~12,000?year paleoecological reconstruction of intermittent methane availability from a radiocarbon-dated sediment core (LQ-West) taken from a shallow tundra lake (Qalluuraq Lake) in Arctic Alaska. Specifically, stable carbon isotopic values of photosynthetic biomarkers and methane are utilized to estimate the proportional contribution of methane-derived carbon to lake-sediment-preserved benthic (chironomids) and pelagic (cladocerans) components over the last ~12,000?years. These results were compared to temperature, hydrologic, and habitat reconstructions from the same site using chironomid assemblage data, oxygen isotopes of chironomid head capsules, and radiocarbon ages of plant macrofossils. Cladoceran ephippia from ~4,000?cal?year BP sediments have ??¹³C values that range from ~?39 to ?31??, suggesting peak methane carbon assimilation at that time. These low ??¹³C values coincide with an apparent decrease in effective moisture and development of a wetland that included Sphagnum subsecundum. Incorporation of methane-derived carbon by chironomids and cladocerans decreased from ~2,500 to 1,500?cal?year BP, coinciding with a temperature decrease. Live-collected chironomids with a radiocarbon age of 1,640?cal?year BP, and fossil chironomids from 1,500?cal?year BP in the core illustrate that ??old?? carbon has also contributed to the development of the aquatic ecosystem since ~1,500?cal?year BP. The relatively low ??¹³C values of aquatic invertebrates (as low as ?40.5??) provide evidence of methane incorporation by lake invertebrates, and suggest intermittent climate-linked methane release from the lake throughout the Holocene.