Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.     

The changing social relations of a community-based mangrove forest project in Zanzibar

Coastal areas in East Africa are experiencing rapid economic, resource management, demographic and technological shifts. In response diverse Community-based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) applications have been embraced to provide mutual conservation and use benefits. These initiatives have met with mixed success in practice. Reflecting on the limitations of past research using common pool resources theory theory to study CBNRM we use insights from actor oriented theory combined with satellite image analysis to describe and discuss the forces dynamically influencing institutional and mangrove forest cover change at Kisakasaka, Zanzibar focussing on the formal CBNRM project period between 1996 and 2001, but also considering the period before and after this. We examine the shifting social relations that affected the performance and viability of the formal CBNRM arrangements. An integrated approach was taken to the presentation and discussion of results where it was possible to enrich and expand explanations of socio-environmental change, which was driven by a lack of government support, the undermining effects of party political divisions, and the lack of institutional adaptive capacity. We conclude that this was a useful approach to explain CBNRM intervention events at Kisakasaka.     

Identifying burdens of coping with climate change: A typology of the duties of climate justice

One of the central questions in climate change debates concerns fair burden-sharing, i.e. justice in the distribution of costs of undertaking climate-managing policies. In this paper it is argued that in order to distribute such costs justly, it is necessary to have a nuanced understanding of what types of burdens they represent. Climate managing policies are usually divided into responses that seek to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (mitigation) and responses that seek to prevent harm arising from a changing climate (adaptation). Some have argued that there are normatively significant differences between mitigation and adaptation: that the two responses adhere to different logics and evoke different patterns of burden-sharing. This paper argues that the relevant distinction is instead between negative and positive climate duties, i.e. whether an agent has a duty to undertake climate-managing policies on account of the harm its excessive emissions are causing or simply on account of its ability to assist those in need. The paper offers a typology of the different mitigation and adaptation responses that can be sorted under the negative/positive distinctions. This way of conceptualizing the issue not only enables us to better address the burden-sharing question, offering a more nuanced understanding of the types of climate burdens that are ascribable to agents and pointing out the appropriate roles of contributory responsibility and ability. It also clarifies aspects of the climate negotiations, and explains why it matters whether adaptation finance transferred to vulnerable countries is portrayed as compensation for harmful emissions or simply as donor countries discharging their humanitarian duties.     

Der geothermische Gradient im pt-Feld der metamorphen Facies

Zusammenfassung Unter Benützung der neuesten Bestimmungen von Gleichgewichten gesteinsbildender Silikate bei hohen Drucken and Temperaturen wind ein pt-Diagramm entworfen, in dem die einzelnen metamorphen Facies (im Sinne vonEskola undTurner-Verhoogen) als Felder abgrenzbar sind. Im gleichen Diagramm lassen sich durch eine Kurvenschar vertikale Abfolgen der geothermischen Gradienten darstellen, die den verschiedenen Prozessen der Gebirgsbildung entsprechen. Es werden reale Beispiele für die verschiedenen Abfolgen genannt.[/p]

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Summary A p-t-diagram is designed, utilizing the latest equilibrium determinations at high pressures and temperatures on rockforming silicates. The different metamorphic Facies (according toEskola andTurner-Verhoogen) are assigned therein to specific pressure-temperature regions which can be bordered off. On the same diagram the geothermic gradients are drawn by means of several curves, each corresponding to a specific process of mountain building. Each suite of Facies is illustrated by real examples.[/p]

     

Geographic and hydromorphologic controls on interactions between hyporheic flow and discharging deep groundwater

Hyporheic exchange flow (HEF) at the streambed–water interface (SWI) has been shown to impact the pattern and rate of discharging groundwater flow (GWF) and the consequential transport of heat, solutes and contaminants from the subsurface into streams. However, the control of geographic and hydromorphological catchment characteristics on GWF–HEF interactions is still not fully understood. Here, the spatial variability in flow characteristics in discharge zones was investigated and averaged over three spatial scales in five geographically different catchments in Sweden. Specifically, the deep GWF discharge velocity at the SWI was estimated using steady-state numerical models, accounting for the real multiscale topography and heterogeneous geology, while an analytical model, based on power spectral analysis of the streambed topography and statistical assessments of the stream hydraulics, was used to estimate the HEF. The modeling resulted in large variability in deep GWF and HEF velocities, both within and between catchments, and a regression analysis was performed to explain this observed variability by using a set of independent variables representing catchment topography and geology as well as local stream hydromorphology. Moreover, the HEF velocity was approximately two orders of magnitude larger than the deep GWF velocity in most of the investigated stream reaches, indicating significant potential to accelerate the deep GWF velocity and reduce the discharge areas. The greatest impact occurred in catchments with low average slope and in reaches close to the catchment outlet, where the deep GWF discharge velocity was generally low.

     

The resilience paradox: flooding experience,coping and climate change mitigation intentions

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of extreme weather events across the globe and these events are likely to have significant mental health implications. The mental health literature broadly characterises negative emotional reactions to extreme weather experiences as undesirable impacts on wellbeing. Yet, other research in psychology suggests that negative emotional responses to extreme weather are an important motivation for personal action on climate change. This article addresses the intersection of mental health and functional perspectives on negative emotions, with a specific focus on the potential that reduced negative emotional responses to extreme weather may also translate to diminished motivation to undertake climate change mitigation actions – which we term the ‘resilience paradox’. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, we present new evidence indicating that self-appraised coping ability moderates the link between flooding experience and negative emotions and thereby attenuates the indirect link between flooding experience and climate change mitigation intentions. We conclude that support for flood victims should extend beyond addressing emotional, physical and financial stresses to include acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and communication of the need for action to combat future climate risks.

Key policy insights

• Psychological resilience to flooding and other extreme weather events can translate to diminished motivation to mitigate climate change

• Negative emotional reactions need to occur at an optimal level to enable people to respond appropriately to climate risks.

• Flood victims’ subjective appraisal of their ability to cope does not necessarily encompass consideration of the role played by climate change. Therefore, support for victims of extreme weather should include explicit acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and the need for action to mitigate future climate risks.

     

A dated volcano-tectonic deformation event in Jan Mayen causing landlocking of Arctic charr

We provide the first documentation of tectonic deformation resulting from a volcanic eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Vertical displacement of about 14 m southwest of the stratovolcano Beerenberg is associated with an eruption in ad 1732 on its southeastern flank. The age of the uplift event is bracketed by radiocarbon-dated driftwood buried by material deposited due to uplift, and by tephra from this eruption. Constraints, inferred from radiocarbon ages alone, allow for the possibility that uplift was completed prior to the ad 1732 eruption. However, the occurrence of tephra in the sediment column indicates that some displacement was ongoing during the eruption but ceased before the eruption terminated. We attribute the tectonic deformation to intrusion of shallow magma associated with the volcanic eruption. Our results complement previous studies of volcanic activity on Jan Mayan by providing precise age constraints for past volcanic activity. Also, it raises new hypotheses regarding the nature, timing and prevalence of precursor tectonic events to Jan Mayan eruptions. The uplift caused the complete isolation of a coastal lake by closing its outlet to the sea, thus landlocking the facultative migratory fish species Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus).     

Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making

Natural Hazards - This contribution explores the conceptual and empirical linkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM). Following a review of the international...