Holocene recolonization and extinction of the pond turtle, Emys orbicularis (L., 1758), in Europe

We reconstruct the Holocene range fluctuations of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) for northern and Central Europe. Based on 529 subfossil records and radiocarbon dating of critical finds, we provide evidence that E. orbicularis experienced a rapid range expansion with Holocene warming. Phylogeographic data argue for a colonization of northern and Central Europe from a glacial refuge located in the south-eastern Balkans. Already in the Late Preboreal (9100–8600 cal BC) the species occurred in northern Central Europe and was widespread in Denmark and southern Sweden (Skåne) during the Boreal (8600–7100 cal BC). The maximum range extension occurred during the Holocene climatic optimum (Atlantic: 7100–3750 cal BC), with records in southern England, middle Sweden, and northern Estonia. After the early Subboreal (3750–1750 cal BC) northern populations collapsed, coinciding with a climatic cooling and oceanization. Northern populations were most likely established via long distance dispersal (rafting using rivers debouching in the North and Baltic Seas); after northern Europe was reached, a minimum dispersal of 50 km per 100 years may be hypothesized for the Boreal.     

Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies

Abstract

Hydrological data may be temporally autocorrelated requiring autoregressive process parameters to be estimated. Current statistical methods for hydrological change detection in paired watershed studies rely on prediction intervals, but the current form of prediction intervals does not include all appropriate sources of variation. Corrected prediction intervals for the analysis of paired watershed study data that include variation associated with covariance and linear model parameter estimation are presented. We provide an example of their application to data from the Hinkle Creek Paired Watershed Study located in the western Cascade foothills of Southern Oregon, USA. Research implications of using the correct prediction limits and incorporating the estimation uncertainty of autoregressive process parameters are discussed.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Som, N.A., Zégre, N.P., Ganio, L.M. and Skaugset, A.E., 2012. Corrected prediction intervals for change detection in paired watershed studies. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 134–143.     

Investigating dissolution of mechanically activated olivine for carbonation purposes

Mineral carbonation is one of several alternatives for CO₂ sequestration and storage. The reaction rates of appropriate minerals with CO₂, for instance olivine and serpentine with vast resources, are relatively slow in a CO₂ sequestration context and the rates have to be increased to make mineral carbonation a good storage alternative. Increasing the dissolution rate of olivine has been the focus of this paper. Olivine was milled with very high energy intensity using a laboratory planetary mill to investigate the effect of mechanical activation on the Mg extraction potential of olivine in 0.01 M HCl solution at room temperature and pressure. Approximately 30–40% of each sample was dissolved and water samples were taken at the end of each experiment. The pH change was used to calculate time series of the Mg concentrations, which also were compared to the final Mg concentrations in the water samples. Percentage dissolved and the specific reaction rates were estimated from the Mg concentration time series. The measured particle size distributions could not explain the rate constants found, but the specific surface area gave a good trend versus dissolution for samples milled wet and the samples milled with a small addition of water. The samples milled dry had the lowest measured specific surface areas (<4 m²/g), but had the highest rate constants. The crystallinity calculated from X-ray diffractograms, was the material parameter with the best fit for the observed differences in the rate constants. Geochemical modelling of mechanically activated materials indicated that factors describing the changes in the material properties related to the activation must be included. The mechanically activated samples in general reacted faster than predicted by the theoretical models. Mechanical activation as a pre-treatment method was found to enhance the initial specific reaction rates by approximately three orders of magnitude for a sample milled dry for 60 min in a planetary mono mill compared to an unactivated sample. Wet milling in the planetary mill did not produce samples with the same maximum reaction rate as dry milling, but wet milling in general might be easier to implement into a wet carbonation process. Mechanical activation in a planetary mill is likely to consume too much energy for CO₂ sequestration purposes, but the increase in obtained olivine rate constants illustrates a potential for using milling as a pre-treatment method.