Test of rock physics models for prediction of seismic velocities in shallow unconsolidated sands: a well log data case‡

This paper tests the ability of various rock physics models to predict seismic velocities in shallow unconsolidated sands by comparing the estimates to P and S sonic logs collected in a shallow sand layer and ultrasonic laboratory data of an unconsolidated sand sample. The model fits are also evaluated with respect to the conventional model for unconsolidated sand. Our main approach is to use Hertz‐Mindlin and Walton contact theories, assuming different weight fractions of smooth and rough contact behaviours, to predict the elastic properties of the high porosity point. Using either the Hertz‐Mindlin or Walton theories with rough contact behaviour to define the high porosity endpoint gives an over‐prediction of the velocities. The P‐velocity is overpredicted by a factor of ～1.5 and the S‐velocity by a factor of ～1.8 for highly porous gas‐sand. The degree of misprediction decreases with increasing water saturation and porosity.Using the Hertz‐Mindlin theory with smooth contact behaviour or weighted Walton models gives a better fit to the data, although the data are best described using the Walton smooth model. To predict the properties at the lower porosities, the choice of bounding model attached to the Walton Smooth model controls the degree of fit to the data, where the Reuss bound best captures the porosity variations of dry and wet sands in this case since they are caused by depositional differences. The empirical models based on lab experiments on unconsolidated sand also fit the velocity data measured by sonic logs in situ, which gives improved confidence in using lab‐derived results.     

Modelling ocean wave climate with a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model and a log-transform of the data

Long-term trends in the ocean wave climate because of global warming are of major concern to many stakeholders within the maritime industries, and there is a need to take severe sea state conditions into account in design of marine structures and in marine operations. Various stochastic models of significant wave height are reported in the literature, but most are based on point measurements without exploiting the flexible framework of Bayesian hierarchical space–time models. This framework allows modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet remains intuitive and easily interpreted. This paper presents a Bayesian hierarchical space–time model with a log-transform for significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined, and the results from applying the model to data of different temporal resolutions will be discussed. Different model alternatives have been tried and long-term trends in the data have been identified for all model alternatives. Overall, these trends are in reasonable agreement and also agree fairly well with previous studies. The log-transform was included in order to account for observed heteroscedasticity in the data, and results are compared to previous results where a similar model was employed without a log-transform. Furthermore, a discussion of possible extensions to the model, e.g. incorporating regression terms with relevant meteorological data, will be presented.     

Impact of partial steps and momentum advection schemes in a global ocean circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution

Series of sensitivity tests were performed with a z-coordinate, global eddy-permitting (1/4°) ocean/sea-ice model (the ORCA-R025 model configuration developed for the DRAKKAR project) to carefully evaluate the impact of recent state-of-the-art numerical schemes on model solutions. The combination of an energy–enstrophy conserving (EEN) scheme for momentum advection with a partial step (PS) representation of the bottom topography yields significant improvements in the mean circulation. Well known biases in the representation of western boundary currents, such as in the Atlantic the detachment of the Gulf Stream, the path of the North Atlantic Current, the location of the Confluence, and the strength of the Zapiola Eddy in the south Atlantic, are partly corrected. Similar improvements are found in the Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans, and characteristics of the mean flow are generally much closer to observations. Comparisons with other state-of-the-art models show that the ORCA-R025 configuration generally performs better at similar resolution. In addition, the model solution is often comparable to solutions obtained at 1/6 or 1/10° resolution in some aspects concerning mean flow patterns and distribution of eddy kinetic energy. Although the reasons for these improvements are not analyzed in detail in this paper, evidence is shown that the combination of EEN with PS reduces numerical noise near the bottom, which is likely to affect current–topography interactions in a systematic way. We conclude that significant corrections of the mean biases presently seen in general circulation model solutions at eddy-permitting resolution can still be expected from the development of numerical methods, which represent an alternative to increasing resolution.     

Seismic on floating ice: data acquisition versus flexural wave noise

Geophysical surveying of the Arctic will become increasingly important in future prospecting and monitoring of the terrestrial and adjacent areas in this hemisphere. Seismic data acquired on floating ice are hampered with extensive noise due to ice vibrations related to highly dispersive ice flexural waves generated by the seismic source. Several experiments have been conducted on floating ice in van Mijenfjorden in Svalbard in the Norwegian Arctic to specifically analyse the extent of flexural waves recorded with various seismic receivers and sources deployed both on top of ice and in the water below. The data show that flexural waves are severely damped at 5 m or deeper below the ice and hydrophone data suffer less from these vibrations compared with data recorded on the ice. Aliasing of single receiver hydrophone data can to some extent be suppressed using an in-line line source of detonating cord. Experiments on ice on shallow water show prominent guided wave modes often referred to as Scholte waves propagating along the seabed. In this case, both flexural and Scholte waves interfere and make a complicated pattern of coherent noise. On shallow water, the positioning and type of the seismic source must be evaluated with respect to the coherent noise generated by these waves. Geophone strings of 25 m effectively suppress both flexural and Scholte waves due to their relative short wavelengths. An airgun generates relative more low-frequency energy than a surface source of detonating cord. Accordingly, seismic mapping of deep seismic horizons seem to be best achieved using geophone strings of such length and an airgun source. For shallow targets, the use of hydrophones in combination with detonating cord is an appropriate solution. Seismic surveying in the Arctic always have to follow environmental restrictions of not disturbing or harming wildlife and not causing permanent footprints into the vulnerable tundra, which implies that the choice of seismic acquisition strategy might occur as a trade-off between optimum data quality and environmental constraints.     

Downscaling IPCC control run and future scenario with focus on the Barents Sea

Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are the tool by which projections for climate changes due to radiative forcing scenarios have been produced. Further, regional atmospheric downscaling of the global models may be applied in order to evaluate the details in, e.g., temperature and precipitation patterns. Similarly, detailed regional information is needed in order to assess the implications of future climate change for the marine ecosystems. However, regional results for climate change in the ocean are sparse. We present the results for the circulation and hydrography of the Barents Sea from the ocean component of two global models and from a corresponding pair of regional model configurations. The global models used are the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3. The ROMS ocean model is used for the regional downscaling of these results (ROMS-G and ROMS-N configurations, respectively). This investigation was undertaken in order to shed light on two questions that are essential in the context of regional ocean projections: (1) How should a regional model be set up in order to take advantage of the results from global projections; (2) What limits to quality in the results of regional models are imposed by the quality of global models? We approached the first question by initializing the ocean model in the control simulation by a realistic ocean analysis and specifying air-sea fluxes according to the results from the global models. For the projection simulation, the global models’ oceanic anomalies from their control simulation results were added upon initialization. Regarding the second question, the present set of simulations includes regional downscalings of the present-day climate as well as projected climate change. Thus, we study separately how downscaling changes the results in the control climate case, and how scenario results are changed. For the present-day climate, we find that downscaling reduces the differences in the Barents Sea between the original global models. Furthermore, the downscaled results are closer to observations. On the other hand, the downscaled results from the scenario simulations are significantly different: while the heat transport into the Barents Sea and the salinity distribution change modestly from control to scenario with ROMS-G, in ROMS-N the heat transport is much larger in the scenario simulation, and the water masses become much less saline. The lack of robustness in the results from the scenario simulations leads us to conclude that the results for the regional oceanic response to changes in the radiative forcing depend on the choice of AOGCM and is not settled. Consequently, the effect of climate change on the marine ecosystem of the Barents Sea is anything but certain.     

Changes in the abundance of the seagrassesZostera marina L. (eelgrass) andRuppia maritima L. (widgeongrass) in San Diego, California, following and El Niño Event

Changes in environmental conditions can be accompanied by shifts in the distribution and abundances of organisms. When physical factors become unsuitable for growth ofZostera marina (eelgrass), which is a dominant seagrass species in North America, other more ruderal seagrass species, includingRuppia maritima (widgeongrass), often increase in abundance or replace the dominant species. We report the proliferation of widgeongrass into eelgrass beds in Mission Bay and San Diego Bay in San Diego, California, during the 1997 to 1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Widgeongrass persisted in these eelgrass beds at least one year after a return to non-ENSO conditions and an increase in eelgrass density. We suggest that a warming of the water in two bays in San Diego by 1.5–2.5°C could result, in a permanent shift in the local seagrass vegetation from eelgrass to widgeongrass. This shift, could, have substantial ecosystem-level ramifications.     

Holocene recolonization and extinction of the pond turtle, Emys orbicularis (L., 1758), in Europe

We reconstruct the Holocene range fluctuations of the European pond turtle (Emys orbicularis) for northern and Central Europe. Based on 529 subfossil records and radiocarbon dating of critical finds, we provide evidence that E. orbicularis experienced a rapid range expansion with Holocene warming. Phylogeographic data argue for a colonization of northern and Central Europe from a glacial refuge located in the south-eastern Balkans. Already in the Late Preboreal (9100–8600 cal BC) the species occurred in northern Central Europe and was widespread in Denmark and southern Sweden (Skåne) during the Boreal (8600–7100 cal BC). The maximum range extension occurred during the Holocene climatic optimum (Atlantic: 7100–3750 cal BC), with records in southern England, middle Sweden, and northern Estonia. After the early Subboreal (3750–1750 cal BC) northern populations collapsed, coinciding with a climatic cooling and oceanization. Northern populations were most likely established via long distance dispersal (rafting using rivers debouching in the North and Baltic Seas); after northern Europe was reached, a minimum dispersal of 50 km per 100 years may be hypothesized for the Boreal.     

A geochronological framework for orogenic gold mineralisation in central Victoria, Australia

New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronological data support, and significantly expand upon, preliminary age data that were interpreted to suggest an episodic and diachronous emplacement of gold across the western Lachlan fold belt, Australia. These geochronological data indicate that mineralisation in the central Victorian gold province occurred in response to episodic, eastward progressing deformation, metamorphism and exhumation associated with the formation of the western Lachlan fold belt. Initial gold formation throughout the Stawell and the Bendigo structural zones can be constrained to a broad interval of time between 455 and 435 Ma, with remobilisation of metals into new structures and/or new pulses of mineralisation occurring between 420 and 400 Ma, and again between 380 and 370 Ma, linked to episodic variations in the regional stress-field and during intrusion of felsic dykes and plutons. This separation of ages is incompatible with the view that gold emplacement in the western Lachlan fold belt was the result of a single, orogen-wide event during the Devonian. A distinct phase of gold mineralisation, characterised by elevated Cu, Mo, Sb or W, is associated with both Late Silurian to Early Devonian (~420 to 400 Ma) and Middle to Late Devonian (~380 to 370 Ma) magmatism, when crustal thickening and shortening during the ongoing consolidation of the western Lachlan Fold Belt led to extensive melt development in the lower crust and resulted in widespread magmatism throughout central Victoria. These ~420 to 400 Ma and ~380 to 370 Ma occurrences, best exemplified by the Wonga deposit in the Stawell structural zone and many of the Woods Point deposits in the Melbourne structural zone, but also evidenced by occurrences at Fosterville and Maldon in the Bendigo structural zone, clearly formed synchronous with, or post-date, the emplacement of plutons and dykes, and thus are spatially (if not genetically) related to melt generation at depth. This later, magmatic-associated and polymetallic type of gold mineralisation is economically subordinate to the earlier, metamorphic-associated type of gold deposition in the Stawell and Bendigo structural zones, but tends to be the dominant style in the Melbourne Zone. These new geochronological constraints, together with zircon U-Pb data from felsic intrusive rocks of known relationship to gold mineralisation, demonstrate that initial hydrothermal alteration associated with gold emplacement in the western Lachlan fold belt was metamorphic-related, predating the emplacement of granite plutons by as much as 80 million years. This timing differs from other important orogenic gold districts where gold deposition is closely associated spatially with felsic magmatism. The early introduction of metamorphically derived fluids well before magmatism may reflect variations in the timing of peak metamorphic conditions at different crustal levels in an accretionary prism undergoing simultaneous deformation and erosion. Consequently, no genetic link exists between the main phase(s) of gold mineralisation and magmatism in the central Victorian gold province. With the exception of formation of a minor magmatism-related and geochemically-distinct mineralisation style at about 420 to 400 Ma, and again at about 380 to 370 Ma, the apparent spatial relationship between gold mineralisation and felsic intrusions is merely the result of melts and fluids being channelised along the same structures.     

Pb---Nd---Sr isotopic constraints on the origin of the Caledonian Bindal Batholith, central Norway

The Bindal Batholith is the largest granitoid batholith in the Scandinavian Caledonides, emplaced prior to or during the Scandian collision in a complex scenario of Ordovician to Middle Silurian nappe assembly. The Bindal Batholith ranges in compositon from mafic gabbro to leucogranite, but granites and granodiorites are by far the most abundant rock types.

Pb---Pb, Sm---Nd and Rb---Sr isotopic results from plutons of the batholith constrain the origin of the Bindal Batholith magmas. The isotope results suggest the presence of several source reservoirs, giving rise to the granitoid magmas. Both a source relatively depleted in U, Th and Rb and enriched in Sm, a source enriched in U and Rb and depleted in Sm, a source enriched in Th and Rb, but depleted in Sm, and, finally, a source enriched in Th and Sm, but depleted in Rb, is indicated by the initial compositions of the radiogenic isotope ratios. It is suggested that the depleted source reservoirs were contemporaneous depleted mantle and mantle derived rocks in the nappe sequences, that the enriched source reservoir was sediments derived from Proterozoic upper crust of Baltic Shield affinity and that the Th-enriched source reservoir was various Proterozoic rocks, in a lower crustal position, of either Baltic or Laurentian affinity.