Zooplankton and forage fish species off Peru: Large-scale bottom-up forcing and local-scale depletion

The Humboldt Current System, like all upwelling systems, has dramatic quantities of plankton-feeding fish, which suggested that their population dynamics may ‘drive’ or ‘control’ ecosystem dynamics. With this in mind we analysed the relationship between forage fish populations and their main prey, zooplankton populations. Our study combined a zooplankton sampling program (1961–2005) with simultaneous acoustic observations on fish from 40 pelagic surveys (1983–2005) conducted by the Peruvian Marine Research Institute (IMARPE) and landing statistics for anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax) along the Peruvian coast from 1961 to 2005. The multi-year trend of anchoveta population abundance varied consistently with zooplankton biovolume trend, suggesting bottom-up control on anchovy at the population scale (since oceanographic conditions and phytoplankton production support the changes in zooplankton abundance). For a finer-scale analysis (km) we statistically modelled zooplankton biovolume as a function of geographical (latitude and distance from the 200-m isobath), environmental (sea surface temperature), temporal (year, month and time-of-day) and biological (acoustic anchovy and sardine biomass within 5 km of each zooplankton sample) covariates over all survey using both classification and regression trees (CART) and generalized additive models (GAM). CART showed local anchoveta density to have the strongest effect on zooplankton biovolume, with significantly reduced levels of biovolume for higher neighbourhood anchoveta biomass. Additionally, zooplankton biovolume was higher offshore than on the shelf. GAM results corroborated the CART findings, also showing a clear diel effect on zooplankton biovolume, probably due to diel migration or daytime net avoidance. Apparently, the observed multi-year population scale bottom-up control is not inconsistent with local depletion of zooplankton when anchoveta are locally abundant, since the latter effect was observed over a wide range of overall anchoveta abundance.     

The Planck cluster survey

The Planck Satellite will survey the entire sky in 9 millimeter/submillimeter bands and detect thousands of galaxy clusters via their thermal Sunyaev‐Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. The unprecedented volume of the survey will permit the construction of a unique catalog of massive clusters out to redshifts of order unity. We describe the expected contents of this catalog and use an empirical model of the intra‐cluster gas to predict the X‐ray properties of Planck SZ clusters. Using this information we show how a ∼10 Ms follow‐up program on XMM‐Newton could increase by ∼100‐fold the number of clusters with measured temperatures in the redshift range z = 0.5–1. Such a large sample of well‐studied massive clusters at these redshifts would be a powerful cosmological tool and a significant legacy for XMM‐Newton. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Optical extinction due to aerosols in the upper haze of Venus: Four years of SOIR/VEX observations from 2006 to 2010

The variability of the aerosol loading in the mesosphere of Venus is investigated from a large data set obtained with SOIR, a channel of the SPICAV instrument suite onboard Venus Express. Vertical profiles of the extinction due to light absorption by aerosols are retrieved from a spectral window around 3.0 μm recorded in many solar occultations (～200) from September 2006 to September 2010. For this period, the continuum of light absorption is analyzed in terms of spatial and temporal variations of the upper haze of Venus. It is shown that there is a high short-term (a few Earth days) and a long-term (～80 Earth days) variability of the extinction profiles within the data set. Latitudinal dependency of the aerosol loading is presented for the entire period considered and for shorter periods of time as well.     

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.     

Protracted,coeval crust and mantle melting during Variscan late-orogenic evolution: U–Pb dating in the eastern French Massif Central

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The late stages of the Variscan orogeny are characterized by middle to lower crustal melting and intrusion of voluminous granitoids throughout the belt,...     

Modeling nutrients profiles at the sediment–water interface. Calibration and validation from two climatically contrasted estuaries: Seine (France) and Somone (Senegal)

The dialysis porewater sampler, type Hesslein, allows sampling of sediment interstitial water according to a continuous gradient between sediment and the water column. Its equilibration time fluctuates according to the nature of sediment, so it has to be measured in each kind of sediment. The aim of this work is to develop a physical diffusion model in order to determine an equilibration time without using extensive field experiments. The model is validated by real nutrient concentration profiles obtained on two estuaries under different climates, moderate climate (estuary of the Seine) and tropical dry climate (estuary of Somone, Senegal). The results highlight that the equilibration of the dialysis porewater sampler is not homogeneous over the full sediment height investigated. Other sediment characteristics as compaction, rate of bioturbation or bacterial density must be taken into account in order to find a well-calculated value of the equilibration time.     

Mesoscale eddies off Peru in altimeter records: Identification algorithms and eddy spatio-temporal patterns

Relatively little is known about coherent vortices in the eastern South-Pacific along the Peruvian coast, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity and structure. This study addresses these issues with nearly 15 years of relatively high-resolution satellite altimetry measurements.We first compare two distinct automated methods for eddy identification. The objective validation protocol shows that the rarely-used geometrical or “winding-angle method”, based on the curvature of the streamline functions, is more accurate than the commonly-used “Okubo–Weiss algorithm”, which defines a vortex as a simple connected region with values of Okubo–Weiss parameter weaker than a given threshold.We then investigate vortices off Peru using more than 20,000 mesoscale eddies identified by the winding-angle method. Coherent eddies, characterized by a high ratio of vorticity to deformation rate, are typically formed along the coast and propagate westward at 3–6 cm s⁻¹. The vortices have a mean radius of 80 km, increasing northward, and are most frequently observed off of Chimbote (9°S) and south of San Juan (15°S). The mean eddy lifetime is about 1 month, but if eddies survive at least 2 months, the probability for surviving an additional week (or month) is constant at 90% (or 67%). Anticyclonic eddies tend to propagate northwestward whereas cyclonic vortices migrate southwestward. In general, cyclones and anticyclones are similar, except for eddies surviving at least 6 months. In this case, after a similar 3–4 months of radius and amplitude growth, amplitudes (or sizes) decay particularly rapidly for anticyclonic (or cyclonic) eddies. In terms of intensity, cyclonic eddies show a rapid decay during the first 3 months before arriving at a quasi-constant value, whereas anticyclones exhibit steady decline. Finally, eddy temporal variations were examined at seasonal and interannual scales in the “coastal” region favorable to the formation of energetic mesoscale structures. On seasonal scales, eddy activity is maximal in fall and minimum in spring. At interannual scales, the eddy activity index was maximal during the strong El Niño of 1997–1998 but another strong maximum of eddy activity also occurred late in 2004. These temporal variations are probably associated with the intensification of the upwelling thermal front and with the passage of coastal-trapped waves which generate baroclinic instabilities. Further investigation of the mechanisms involved on the eddy genesis is needed.