Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record

Flood hazard is expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, long time-series of climate and gauge data at high-elevation are too sparse to assess reliably the rate of recurrence of such events in mountain areas. Here paleolimnological techniques were used to assess the evolution of frequency and magnitude of flash flood events in the North-western European Alps since the Little Ice Age (LIA). The aim was to document a possible effect of the post-19^th century global warming on torrential floods frequency and magnitude. Altogether 56 flood deposits were detected from grain size and geochemical measurements performed on gravity cores taken in the proglacial Lake Blanc (2170?m?a.s.l., Belledonne Massif, NW French Alps). The age model relies on radiometric dating (¹³⁷Cs and ²⁴¹Am), historic lead contamination and the correlation of major flood- and earthquake-triggered deposits, with recognized occurrences in historical written archives. The resulting flood calendar spans the last ca 270?years (AD 1740–AD 2007). The magnitude of flood events was inferred from the accumulated sediment mass per flood event and compared with reconstructed or homogenized datasets of precipitation, temperature and glacier variations. Whereas the decennial flood frequency seems to be independent of seasonal precipitation, a relationship with summer temperature fluctuations can be observed at decadal timescales. Most of the extreme flood events took place since the beginning of the 20^th century with the strongest occurring in 2005. Our record thus suggests climate warming is favouring the occurrence of high magnitude torrential flood events in high-altitude catchments.     

The Planck cluster survey

The Planck Satellite will survey the entire sky in 9 millimeter/submillimeter bands and detect thousands of galaxy clusters via their thermal Sunyaev‐Zel'dovich (SZ) effect. The unprecedented volume of the survey will permit the construction of a unique catalog of massive clusters out to redshifts of order unity. We describe the expected contents of this catalog and use an empirical model of the intra‐cluster gas to predict the X‐ray properties of Planck SZ clusters. Using this information we show how a ∼10 Ms follow‐up program on XMM‐Newton could increase by ∼100‐fold the number of clusters with measured temperatures in the redshift range z = 0.5–1. Such a large sample of well‐studied massive clusters at these redshifts would be a powerful cosmological tool and a significant legacy for XMM‐Newton. (© 2008 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Distribution and chronology of Pleistocene permafrost features in France: Database and first results

Numerous periglacial features (polygons, nets, soil stripes, ice‐wedge pseudomorphs and sand‐wedge casts, involutions) have been recorded in France by examining bibliographical sources and aerial photographs. These data show that a large part of France was affected by permafrost during the Pleistocene and only the southern Aquitaine Basin and Languedoc seem to have been beyond its maximum extent. The first OSL ages obtained from the aeolian infill of wedge structures indicate that at least two phases of thermal contraction cracking occurred in southwestern France between ～25 and 36 ka. Chronostratigraphical data from loess in northern France indicate that these episodes correspond to the formation of ice‐wedge networks associated with tundra gleys. In the latter region, two additional permafrost episodes probably occurred during the Last Glacial, the older one corresponding to the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4 around 60 ka and the more recent one to MIS 2 around 19–16 ka. Although stratigraphical data indicate that these episodes were relatively short (about one millennium), relict permafrost may have existed for longer periods in northern France.     

Evolution of depositional settings in the Torrey area during the Smithian (Early Triassic,Utah, USA) and their significance for the biotic recovery

This work focuses on well‐exposed Lower Triassic sedimentary rocks in the area of Torrey (south‐central Utah, USA). The studied Smithian 8 deposits record a large‐scale third‐order sea‐level cycle, which permits a detailed reconstruction of the evolution of depositional settings. During the middle Smithian, peritidal microbial limestones associated with a rather low‐diversity benthic fauna were deposited seaward of the tidal flat siliciclastic red beds. Associated with siliceous sponges, microbial limestones formed small m‐scale patch reefs. During the late middle to late Smithian interval, the sedimentary system is characterized by tidal flat dolostones of an interior platform, ooid‐bioclastic deposits of a tide‐dominated shoal complex, and mid‐shelf bioclastic limestones. Microbial deposits, corresponding to sparse stromatolites formed in the interior platform, are contemporaneous with a well‐diversified marine fauna living in a seaward shoal complex and mid‐shelf area. The nature and distribution of these Smithian microbial deposits are not related to any particular deleterious environmental condition, highlighting that observed patterns of biotic recovery after the end‐Permian mass extinction were directly influenced by depositional settings. Facies evolution and stratal stacking patterns allow us to identify large, medium and small‐scale, as well as elementary depositional sequences. Large‐ and medium‐scale sequences are consistent with sea‐level changes, whereas small‐scale and elementary sequences are better explained by autocyclic processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk assessment of Tunguska-type airbursts

The Tunguska airburst, which devastated a taiga forest over an area greater than 2,000 km² in a remote region of Central Siberia in 1908, is a classic example of extraterrestrial encounter discussed in the asteroid/comet impact hazard and risk assessment literature (e.g. Longo 2007; Carusi et al. 2007). Although it is generally agreed that the cosmic body caused damage by bursting in the air rather than through direct impact on the Earth’s surface, the Tunguska event is often referred to as an impact event. To the best of our knowledge, no detailed studies have been performed to quantify the risk of a similar-sized event over a populated region. We propose here a straightforward probabilistic risk model for Tunguska-type events over the continental United States and use established risk metrics to determine the property (buildings and contents) and human losses. We find an annual average property loss of ~USD 200,000/year, a rate of ~0.3 fatalities/year and ~1.0 injuries/year ranging from a factor 3 below and to a factor 3 above the indicated values when a reasonable rate uncertainty for Tunguska-type events is taken into account. We then illustrate the case of an extreme event over the New York metropolitan area. While we estimate that this “nightmare” scenario would lead to ~USD 1.5 trillion of property loss, ~3.9 millions of fatalities and ~4.7 millions of injuries, such event is almost impossible (occurrence once every ~30 million years) and should only be considered as an illustrative example.     

Mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum climate simulations with the IPSL model: part II: model-data comparisons

The climates of the mid-Holocene (MH, 6,000 years ago) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) have been extensively documented and as such, have become targets for the evaluation of climate models for climate contexts very different from the present. In Part 1 of the present work, we have studied the MH and LGM simulations performed with the last two versions of the IPSL model: IPSL_CM4, run for the PMIP2/CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparion Project) projects and IPSL_CM5A, run for the most recent PMIP3/CMIP5 projets. We have shown that not only are these models different in their simulations of the PI climate, but also in their simulations of the climatic anomalies for the MH and LGM. In the Part 2 of this paper, we first examine whether palaeo-data can help discriminate between the model performances. This is indeed the case for the African monsoon for the MH or for North America south of the Laurentide ice sheet, the South Atlantic or the southern Indian ocean for the LGM. For the LGM, off-line vegetation modelling appears to offer good opportunities to distinguish climate model results because glacial vegetation proves to be very sensitive to even small differences in LGM climate. For other cases such as the LGM North Atlantic or the LGM equatorial Pacific, the large uncertainty on the SST reconstructions, prevents model discrimination. We have examined the use of other proxy-data for model evaluation, which has become possible with the inclusion of the biogeochemistry morel PISCES in the IPSL_CM5A model. We show a broad agreement of the LGM–PI export production changes with reconstructions. These changes are related to the mixed layer depth in most regions and to sea-ice variations in the high latitudes. We have also modelled foraminifer abundances with the FORAMCLIM model and shown that the changes in foraminifer abundance in the equatorial Pacific are mainly forced by changes in SSTs, hence confirming the SST-foraminifer abundance relationship. Yet, this is not the case in all regions in the North Atlantic, where food availability can have a strong impact of foraminifer abundances. Further work will be needed to exhaustively examine the role of factors other than climate in piloting changes in palaeo-indicators.     

Hollow Cylinder Tests on Boom Clay: Modelling of Strain Localization in the Anisotropic Excavation Damaged Zone

Boom Clay is extensively studied as a potential candidate to host underground nuclear waste disposal in Belgium. To guarantee the safety of such a disposal, the mechanical behaviour of the clay during gallery excavation must be properly predicted. In that purpose, a hollow cylinder experiment on Boom Clay has been designed to reproduce, in a small-scale test, the Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) as experienced during the excavation of a disposal gallery in the underground. In this article, the focus is made on the hydro-mechanical constitutive interpretation of the displacement (experimentally obtained by medium resolution X-ray tomography scanning). The coupled hydro-mechanical response of Boom Clay in this experiment is addressed through finite element computations with a constitutive model including strain hardening/softening, elastic and plastic cross-anisotropy and a regularization method for the modelling of strain localization processes. The obtained results evidence the directional dependency of the mechanical response of the clay. The softening behaviour induces transient strain localization processes, addressed through a hydro-mechanical second grade model. The shape of the obtained damaged zone is clearly affected by the anisotropy of the materials, evidencing an eye-shaped EDZ. The modelling results agree with experiments not only qualitatively (in terms of the shape of the induced damaged zone), but also quantitatively (for the obtained displacement in three particular radial directions).     

The quantification of low-probability–high-consequences events: part I. A generic multi-risk approach

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of site-specific multi-risk scenarios. We present a generic probabilistic framework based on the sequential Monte Carlo Method to implement coinciding events and triggered chains of events (using a variant of a Markov chain), as well as time-variant vulnerability and exposure. We consider generic perils based on analogies with real ones, natural and man-made. Each simulated time series corresponds to one risk scenario, and the analysis of multiple time series allows for the probabilistic assessment of losses and for the recognition of more or less probable risk paths, including extremes or low-probability–high-consequences chains of events. We find that extreme events can be captured by adding more knowledge on potential interaction processes using in a brick-by-brick approach. We introduce the concept of risk migration matrix to evaluate how multi-risk participates to the emergence of extremes, and we show that risk migration (i.e., clustering of losses) and risk amplification (i.e., loss amplification at higher losses) are the two main causes for their occurrence.