On different types of adjustment usable to calculate the parameters of the stream power law

Model parameterization through adjustment to field data is a crucial step in the modeling and the understanding of the drainage network response to tectonic or climatic perturbations. Using as a test case a data set of 18 knickpoints that materialize the migration of a 0.7-Ma-old erosion wave in the Ourthe catchment of northern Ardennes (western Europe), we explore the impact of various data fitting on the calibration of the stream power model of river incision, from which a simple knickpoint celerity equation is derived. Our results show that statistical least squares adjustments (or misfit functions) based either on the stream-wise distances between observed and modeled knickpoint positions at time t or on differences between observed and modeled time at the actual knickpoint locations yield significantly different values for the m and K parameters of the model. As there is no physical reason to prefer one of these approaches, an intermediate least-rectangles adjustment might at first glance appear as the best compromise. However, the statistics of the analysis of 200 sets of synthetic knickpoints generated in the Ourthe catchment indicate that the time-based adjustment is the most capable of getting close to the true parameter values. Moreover, this fitting method leads in all cases to an m value lower than that obtained from the classical distance adjustment (for example, 0.75 against 0.86 for the real case of the Ourthe catchment), corresponding to an increase in the non-linear character of the dependence of knickpoint celerity on discharge.     

Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis

Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading \(\dot{\tau }\) = {10⁻⁴, 10⁻³, 10⁻²} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities μ _Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.

     

Reconstruction of the recent history of a large deep prealpine lake (Lake Bourget,France) using subfossil chironomids,diatoms, and organic matter analysis: towards the definition of a lake-specific reference state

This paper presents the recent history of a large prealpine lake (Lake Bourget) using chironomids, diatoms and organic matter analysis, and deals with the ability of paleolimnological approach to define an ecological reference state for the lake in the sense of the European Framework Directive. The study at low resolution of subfossil chironomids in a 4-m-long core shows the remarkable stability over the last 2.5 kyrs of the profundal community dominated by a Micropsectra-association until the beginning of the twentieth century, when oxyphilous taxa disappeared. Focusing on this key recent period, a high resolution and multiproxy study of two short cores reveals a progressive evolution of the lake’s ecological state. Until AD 1880, Lake Bourget showed low organic matter content in the deep sediments (TOC less than 1%) and a well-oxygenated hypolimnion that allowed the development of a profundal oxyphilous chironomid fauna (Micropsectra-association). Diatom communities were characteristic of oligotrophic conditions. Around AD 1880, a slight increase in the TOC was the first sign of changes in lake conditions. This was followed by a first limited decline in oligotrophic diatom taxa and the disappearance of two oxyphilous chironomid taxa at the beginning of the twentieth century. The 1940s were a major turning point in recent lake history. Diatom assemblages and accumulation of well preserved planktonic organic matter in the sediment provide evidence of strong eutrophication. The absence of profundal chironomid communities reveals permanent hypolimnetic anoxia. From AD 1995 to 2006, the diatom assemblages suggest a reduction in nutrients, and a return to mesotrophic conditions, a result of improved wastewater management. However, no change in hypolimnion benthic conditions has been shown by either the organic matter or the subfossil chironomid profundal community. Our results emphasize the relevance of the paleolimnological approach for the assessment of reference conditions for modern lakes. Before AD 1900, the profundal Micropsectra-association and the Cyclotella dominated diatom community can be considered as the Lake Bourget reference community, which reflects the reference ecological state of the lake.     

Impacts of Kelvin wave forcing in the Peru Humboldt Current system: Scenarios of spatial reorganizations from physics to fishers

Because climate change challenges the sustainability of important fish populations and the fisheries they support, we need to understand how large scale climatic forcing affects the functioning of marine ecosystems. In the Humboldt Current system (HCS), a main driver of climatic variability is coastally-trapped Kelvin waves (KWs), themselves originating as oceanic equatorial KWs. Here we (i) describe the spatial reorganizations of living organisms in the Humboldt coastal system as affected by oceanic KWs forcing, (ii) quantify the strength of the interactions between the physical and biological component dynamics of the system, (iii) formulate hypotheses on the processes which drive the redistributions of the organisms, and (iv) build scenarios of space occupation in the HCS under varying KW forcing. To address these questions we explore, through bivariate lagged correlations and multivariate statistics, the relationships between time series of oceanic KW amplitude (TAO mooring data and model-resolved baroclinic modes) and coastal Peruvian oceanographic data (SST, coastal upwelled waters extent), anchoveta spatial distribution (mean distance to the coast, spatial concentration of the biomass, mean depth of the schools), and fishing fleet statistics (trip duration, searching duration, number of fishing sets and catch per trip, features of the foraging trajectory as observed by satellite vessel monitoring system). Data sets span all or part of January 1983 to September 2006. The results show that the effects of oceanic KW forcing are significant in all the components of the coastal ecosystem, from oceanography to the behaviour of the top predators – fishers. This result provides evidence for a bottom-up transfer of the behaviours and spatial stucturing through the ecosystem. We propose that contrasting scenarios develop during the passage of upwelling versus downwelling KWs. From a predictive point of view, we show that KW amplitudes observed in the mid-Pacific can be used to forecast which system state will dominate the HCS over the next 2–6 months. Such predictions should be integrated in the Peruvian adaptive fishery management.     

Origin and evolution of fluids from mud volcanoes in the Barbados accretionary complex

A large collection of fluids (54 interstitial fluids and four expelled fluids) were sampled at the Manon site, at the outer edge of the Barbados accretionary complex. These warm fluids (up to 20°C) are expelled by sub-marine (5000 mbsl) mud volcanoes consisting of diapirs (unchanneled flow) and diatremes (channeled).Chlorine stable isotope ratios of these fluids were measured by IRMS with a reproducibility of ± 0.05‰ (1σ) versus SMOC (Standard Mean Ocean Chloride).A large range of δ³⁷Cl between −5.3‰ and +0.1‰ is observed. Data from each volcanic structure describe a mixing between seawater and a low-δ³⁷Cl fluid. The whole set of data is interpreted as the result of a mixing between two deep components and seawater. The two deep fluids are chemically distinct (e.g., in Ca, Mg, K, Li, Sr and Br contents and Br/Cl ratio). They display low and significantly different ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.707790 and 0.707892, respectively) and δ³⁷Cl values (−4.51 and −5.24‰, respectively).Physicochemical processes such as mineralogical transformation, diffusion, compaction or ion filtration are known to fractionate chlorine stable isotopes and can produce fluids with negative δ³⁷Cl values. Ion filtration due to sediment compaction appears to be the more likely process to explain the negative δ³⁷Cl values observed at the Manon site. A model for the generation of these signatures is proposed where a residual negative δ³⁷Cl fluid reservoir is created at the bottom of the prism or the sediment pile. Further compaction/fracturing and/or dewatering of the slab may flush out these fluids and focus them towards the décollement zone. Mixing between the fluids and ultimately with seawater and water released during gas hydrate destabilizations may explain the data set within the individual cores and between the different structures.     

Integrated Onshore‐Offshore Investigation of a Mediterranean Layered Coastal Aquifer

Most of the Mediterranean coastal porous aquifers are intensively exploited. Because of climatic and anthropogenic effects, understanding the physical and geological controls on groundwater distribution and flow dynamics in such aquifers is crucial. This study presents the results of a structural investigation of a system located along the coastline of the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean). A key aspect of this study relies on an onshore‐offshore integrated approach combining outcrops, seismic profiles, and borehole data analysis. This multidisciplinary approach provides constraints on pore‐fluid salinity distribution and stratigraphic organization, which are crucial in assessing the modes of groundwater/seawater exchanges. Onshore, Lower Pliocene deposits dip gently seaward. They are unconformably overlain by Holocene clays in the lagoons. Offshore the Pliocene deposits either outcrop at the seabed or are buried below nonconsolidated sands infilling paleo‐valleys. Beneath the lido, the groundwater salinity distribution consists of salty pore water, overlying fresher pore water. Active circulation of groundwater masses is inferred from the geophysical results. In particular, offshore outcrops and paleo‐valleys may play an important role in salt water intrusion.     

Schooling behaviour and environmental forcing in relation to anchoveta distribution: An analysis across multiple spatial scales

The Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) supports the highest worldwide fishery landings and varies in space and time over many scales. Here we present the first comprehensive sub-mesocale study of anchoveta distribution in relation to the environment. During November 2004, we conducted a behavioural ecology survey off central Peru and used a series of observational and sampling tools including SST and CO₂ sensors, Niskin bottles, CTD probes, zooplankton sampling, stomach content analysis, echo-sounder, multibeam sonar, and bird observations. The sub-mesoscale survey areas were chosen from mesoscale acoustic surveys. A routine coast-wide (2000 km) acoustic survey performed just after the sub-mesoscale surveys, provided information at an even larger population scale. The availability of nearly concurrent sub-mesoscale, mesoscale and coast-wide information on anchoveta distribution allowed for a unique multi-scale synthesis. At the sub-mesoscale (100s m to km) physical processes (internal waves and frontogenesis) concentrated plankton into patches and determined anchoveta spatial distribution. At the mesoscale (10s km) location relative to the zone of active upwelling (and age of the upwelled water) and the depth of the oxycline had strong impacts on the anchoveta. Finally, over 100s km the size of the productive area, as defined by the upwelled cold coastal waters, was the determining factor. We propose a conceptual view of the relative importance of social behaviour and environmental (biotic and abiotic) processes on the spatial distribution of anchoveta. Our ecological space has two y-axis; one based on self-organization (social behaviour), and the other based on the environmental processes. At scales from the individual (10s cm), to the nucleus (m), social behaviour (e.g. the need to school) drives spatial organization. At scales larger than the school, environmental forces are the main driver of fish distribution. The conceptual ecosystem models presented in this paper may provide the final links needed to develop accurate forecasts of the spatial distribution of anchoveta over multiple scales.     

Is a regional flood signal reproducible from lake sediments?

The evolution of flood activity with global warming remains uncertain. To better assess flood–climate relationships, lake sediments are increasingly being investigated because they could provide regional flood histories long enough to cover past climate changes. However, site‐specific sedimentary processes may bias flood reconstructions. The aim of this article is to investigate these effects through the reconstruction of two distinct flood records from independent, neighbouring sedimentary basins of the same lake (Lake Allos in the Mediterranean French Alps), i.e. under the same climate conditions. Understanding of sedimentary processes is crucial in order to adapt the sampling strategy and the flood‐intensity proxy to each sedimentary system and, thereby, reconstruct a complete and reliable flood history. Thanks to this detailed approach, the main trends of the regional flood variability can be reproduced; i.e. periods of high flood‐frequency, ranges of flood‐frequency values and timing of the most intense events. In detail, some differences appeared associated to the various stream capacities to erode and transport flood sediments to the lake system, implying variable sensitivity of sedimentary systems in recording floods. Comparing regional flood records based on independent sedimentary systems from similar environments could thus be a complementary approach to assessing past flood intensity. Such an approach could open particularly interesting perspectives because reconstructing the long‐term evolution of flood intensity is a key challenge in the geosciences.