Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty in rainfall input

Abstract

Different approaches used in hydrological modelling are compared in terms of the way each one takes the rainfall data into account. We examine the errors associated with accounting for rainfall variability, whether in hydrological modelling (distributed vs lumped models) or in computing catchment rainfall, as well as the impact of each approach on the representativeness of the parameters it uses. The database consists of 1859 rainfall events, distributed on 500 basins, located in the southeast of France with areas ranging from 6.2 to 2851 km². The study uses as reference the hydrographs computed by a distributed hydrological model from radar rainfall. This allows us to compare and to test the effects of various simplifications to the process when taking rainfall information (complete rain field vs sampled rainfall) and rainfall–runoff modelling (lumped vs distributed) into account. The results appear to show that, in general, the sampling effect can lead to errors in discharge at the outlet that are as great as, or even greater than, those one would get with a fully lumped approach. We found that small catchments are more sensitive to the uncertainties in catchment rainfall input generated by sampling rainfall data as seen through a raingauge network. Conversely, the larger catchments are more sensitive to uncertainties generated when the spatial variability of rainfall events is not taken into account. These uncertainties can be compensated for relatively easily by recalibrating the parameters of the hydrological model, although such recalibrations cause the parameter in question to completely lose physical meaning.

Citation Arnaud, P., Lavabre, J., Fouchier, C., Diss, S. & Javelle, P. (2011) Sensitivity of hydrological models to uncertainty of rainfall input. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 397–410.     

Chironomid assemblages in cores from multiple water depths reflect oxygen-driven changes in a deep French lake over the last 150 years

We sampled modern chironomids at multiple water depths in Lake Annecy, France, before reconstructing changes in chironomid assemblages at sub-decadal resolution in sediment cores spanning the last 150 years. The lake is a large, deep (z_max = 65 m), subalpine waterbody that has recently returned to an oligotrophic state. Comparison between the water-depth distributions of living chironomid larvae and subfossil head capsules (HC) along three surface-sediment transects indicated spatial differences in the influence of external forcings on HC deposition (e.g. tributary effects). The transect with the lowest littoral influence and the best-preserved, depth-specific chironomid community characteristics was used for paleolimnological reconstructions at various water depths. At the beginning of the twentieth century, oxygen-rich conditions prevailed in the lake, as inferred from M. contracta-type and Procladius sp. at deep-water sites (i.e. cores from 56 to 65 m) and Paracladius sp. and H. grimshawi-type in the core from 30 m depth. Over time, chironomid assemblages in cores from all three water depths converged toward the dominance of S. coracina-type, indicating enhanced hypoxia. The initial change in chironomid assemblages from the deep-water cores occurred in the 1930s, at the same time that an increase in lake trophic state is inferred from an increase in total organic carbon (TOC) concentration in the sediment. In the 1950s, an assemblage change in the core from 30 m water depth reflects the rapid expansion of the hypoxic layer into the shallower region of the lake. Lake Annecy recovered its oligotrophic state in the 1990s. Chironomid assemblages, however, still indicate hypoxic conditions, suggesting that modern chironomid assemblages in Lake Annecy are decoupled from the lake trophic state. Recent increases in both TOC and the hydrogen index indicate that changes in pelagic functioning have had a strong indirect influence on the composition of the chironomid assemblage. Finally, the dramatic decrease in HC accumulation rate over time suggests that hypoxic conditions are maintained through a feedback loop, wherein the accumulation of (un-consumed) organic matter and subsequent bacterial respiration prevent chironomid re-colonization. We recommend study of sediment cores from multiple water depths, as opposed to investigation of only a single core from the deepest part of the lake, to assess the details of past ecological changes in large deep lakes.     

Flood and earthquake disturbance of 210Pb geochronology (Lake Anterne, NW Alps)

Dating recent lake sediment records yielding disturbed ²¹⁰Pb profiles has been a problem of wide interest in palaeoclimatic and palaeoseismic studies over the last few centuries. When applied to an alpine lake sedimentary record, a high-resolution sedimentological study reveals that the ²¹⁰Pb profile is disturbed by the occurrence of single-event deposits triggered by two different mechanisms: flood events deposits and gravity reworking. Removing disturbed layers from the ²¹⁰Pb profile yields a logarithmic depth–activity relationship. Using a simple ²¹⁰Pb decay model (CFCS) provides an assessment of mean accumulation rate of `continuous sedimentation', as opposed to `event-linked sedimentation'. The correlation of the thickest four gravity-reworked deposits with historically known earthquakes permits both validation and refinement of the age–depth relationship. This refinement highlights variations in accumulation rate consistent with post-Little Ice Age climatic variations.     

Rhone River flood deposits in Lake Le Bourget: a proxy for Holocene environmental changes in the NW Alps, France

The Holocene evolution of Rhone River clastic sediment supply in Lake Le Bourget is documented by sub-bottom seismic profiling and multidisciplinary analysis of well-dated sediment cores. Six high-amplitude reflectors within the lacustrine drape can be correlated to periods of enhanced inter- and underflow deposition in sediment cores. Based on the synthesis of major environmental changes in the NW Alps and on the age-depth model covering the past 7500 years in Lake Le Bourget, periods of enhanced Rhone River flood events in the lake can be related to abrupt climate changes and/or to increasing land use since c. 2700 cal. yr BP. For example, significant land use under rather stable climate conditions during the Roman Empire may be responsible for large flood deposits in the northern part of Lake Le Bourget between AD 966 and 1093. However, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), well-documented major environmental changes in the catchment area essentially resulted from climate change and formed basin-wide major flood deposits in Lake Le Bourget. Up to five 'LIA-like' Holocene cold periods developing enhanced Rhone River flooding activity in Lake Le Bourget are documented at c. 7200, 5200, 2800, 1600 and 200 cal. yr BP. These abrupt climate changes were associated in the NW Alps with Mont Blanc glacier advances, enhanced glaciofluvial regimes and high lake levels. Correlations with European lake level fluctuations and winter precipitation regimes inferred from glacier fluctuations in western Norway suggest that these five Holocene cooling events at 45°N were associated with enhanced westerlies, possibly resulting from a persistent negative mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Submillimeter Studies of Prestellar Cores and Protostars: Probing the Initial Conditions for Protostellar Collapse

Improving our understanding of the earliest stages of star formation is crucial to gain insight into the origin of stellar masses, multiple systems, and protoplanetary disks. We discuss recent advances made in this area, thanks to submillimeter mapping observations with large single-dish telescopes and interferometers. Although ambipolar diffusion appears to be too slow cores, there is nevertheless good evidence that the gravitational collapse of isolated protostellar cores is strongly magnetically controlled. We also argue that the beginning of protostellar collapse is much more violent in cluster-forming clouds than in regions of distributed star formation.     

Assessment of paleo-recharge under the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet and its impact on regional groundwater flow in the northern Baltic Artesian Basin using a numerical model

The study investigates the mechanism of glacial meltwater recharge under the Fennosciandian Ice Sheet during the last glacial maximum (LGM) and its impact on regional groundwater flow in the northern Baltic Artesian Basin (BAB) in Estonia and Latvia. The current hypothesis is that a flow reversal occurred in the BAB due to subglacial recharge during the LGM. This hypothesis is supported by an extensive dataset of geochemical and isotopic measurements in the groundwater of northern Estonia, exhibiting significant depletion in δ¹⁸O with respect to modern precipitation. To verify the consistency of this hypothesis and better understand groundwater flow dynamics during the LGM period, a numerical model is developed for this area. Two cross-sectional models have been created across the northern BAB, in which groundwater flow and the transport of δ¹⁸O have been simulated from the beginning of the LGM to present-day. Several simulations were performed with different subglacial boundary conditions, to investigate the uncertainty related to subglacial recharge of meltwater during the LGM and the subsequent flow reversal in the northern BAB. Several simulations provide a satisfying fit between computed and observed values of δ¹⁸O, which means that the hypothesis of subglacial recharge of meltwater is consistent with δ¹⁸O distribution. The numerical model suggests that preservation of meltwater in northern Estonia is controlled by confining layers and the proximity to the outcrop area of aquifers, located in the Gulf of Finland. The results also suggest that glacial meltwater has been preserved under the Baltic Sea in the Gulf of Riga.     

Detecting communities with the multi-scale Louvain method: robustness test on the metropolitan area of Brussels

Detecting communities in large networks has become a common practice in socio-spatial analyses and has led to the development of numerous dedicated mathematical algorithms. Nowadays, however, researchers face a deluge of data and algorithms, and great care must be taken regarding methodological questions such as the values of the parameters and the geographical characteristics of the data. We aim here at testing the sensitivity of multi-scale modularity optimized by the Louvain method to the value of the resolution parameter (introduced by Reichardt and Bornholdt (Phys Rev Lett 93(21):218701, 2004.  https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.218701) and controlling the size of the communities) and to a number of spatial issues such as the inclusion of internal loops and the delineation of the study area. We compare the community structures with those found by another well-known community detection algorithm (Infomap), and we further interpret the final results in terms of urban geography. Sensitivity analyses are conducted for commuting movements in and around Brussels. Results reveal slight effects of spatial issues (inclusion of the internal loops, definition of the study area) on the partition into job basins, while the resolution parameter plays a major role in the final results and their interpretation in terms of urban geography. Community detection methods seem to reveal a surprisingly strong spatial effect of commuting patterns: Similar partitions are obtained with different methods. This paper highlights the advantages and sensitivities of the multi-scale Louvain method and more particularly of defining communities of places. Despite these sensitivities, the method proves to be a valuable tool for geographers and planners.