Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for conditioning a permeability field to pressure data

Generating one realization of a random permeability field that is consistent with observed pressure data and a known variogram model is not a difficult problem. If, however, one wants to investigate the uncertainty of reservior behavior, one must generate a large number of realizations and ensure that the distribution of realizations properly reflects the uncertainty in reservoir properties. The most widely used method for conditioning permeability fields to production data has been the method of simulated annealing, in which practitioners attempt to minimize the difference between the ’ ’true and simulated production data, and “true” and simulated variograms. Unfortunately, the meaning of the resulting realization is not clear and the method can be extremely slow. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to generating realizations that are conditional to pressure data, focusing on the distribution of realizations and on the efficiency of the method. Under certain conditions that can be verified easily, the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is known to produce states whose frequencies of appearance correspond to a given probability distribution, so we use this method to generate the realizations. To make the method more efficient, we perturb the states in such a way that the variogram is satisfied automatically and the pressure data are approximately matched at every step. These perturbations make use of sensitivity coefficients calculated from the reservoir simulator.     

Eruption and mass-wasting-induced processes during the late holocene destructive phase of Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

The November 13, 1985, eruption was characteristic of the Arenas eruptive stage of Nevado del Ruiz, the most recent of a series of twelve eruptive stages that have occurred in the past 11,000 years. Eruptive sequences, deposits and processes similar to that of 1985 have characterized the behavior of Nevado del Ruiz during three major prehistorical and historical eruptive stages: the approximately 3300-3100 yr. B.P. Hedionda, the 16th century Azufrado, and the mid-1800's Lagunillas eruptive stages, that partly destroyed the present Ruiz summit.According to the interpretation of the stratigraphic record of prehistorical eruptions and historical accounts, almost every recent magmatic event was small or short-lived. Nevertheless, rockslide-debris avalanches and catastrophic debris flows were triggered in all the eruptions owing to slope failures related to specific tectonic features of Ruiz volcano and/or to significant interactions between pyroclastic debris and the ice cap. Evidence for headward retreat of avalanche scarps during multiple eruptions reinforce the case that large slope failures can occur repeatedly at a large-volume volcano like Ruiz without reconstruction of the edifice. The latest Ruiz eruptions that involved rockslide-debris avalanches resemble in part the Shiveluch 1964 event for which evidence of lateral blast deposits are lacking, but differ in part from this type because non-eruptive and mass-wasting processes also triggered rockslide-debris avalanches.Many factors render the cluster of domes of the Ruiz summit unstable, including: (1) deeply dissected troughs opened toward the north-northeast (Azufrado), east (Lagunillas), and south (Recio) flanks; (2) strongly hydrothermally altered north and east flanks of the summit; (3) currently glaciated or recently deglaciated, high cliffs; (4) steep unstable margins of the ice cap on the north and east.Thus, in light of its past behavior, a small eruption or an earthquake might trigger catastrophic rockslide-debris avalanches. Furthermore, such avalanches as well as glacial outburst-floods and ice avalanches could induce debris flows by mobilizing weathered, water-saturated, and unconsolidated rocks or deposits.     

Water determination in iron oxyhydroxides and iron ores by Karl Fischer titration

Protohematite (Fe_2?x/3(OH) _x O_3?x 1 ≤ x < 0.5) and hydrohematite (Fe_2?x/3(OH) _x O_3?x 0.5 ≤ x < 0) are iron-defective phases containing hydroxyl groups in their structures. These species were described in prior studies mainly with the aid of X-ray diffraction and Infrared spectroscopy. The existence of these phases in soils might have influence in redox processes, and they were considered as a possible water reservoir in Martian soils. In this study, we have used for the first time the Karl Fischer titration method to determine the amount of water released after heating several synthetic samples of goethite, hematite and natural iron ores at 105, 400, 600 and 900 °C. It was found that heating at 105 °C did not remove all moisture from the samples, and higher temperatures were necessary to completely remove all the absorbed water. The water contents determined at 400, 600 and 900 °C were found to be the same within the experimental errors, suggesting the inexistence of both protohematite and hydrohematite in the investigated samples. Therefore, the above-mentioned effects of these phases in soils might have to be reevaluated.     

Effects of oil on phytoplankton metabolism in natural and experimental estuarine ponds

A low level oil spill was simulated in small shallow natural estuarine marsh ponds in Ocean Springs and in experimental impoundments near St. Louis Bay, Mississippi. In the natural tidal pond in situ light and dark BOD bottle experiments on the phytoplankton community revealed a 44 to 65 % reduction in primary production and a 30 to 50 % reduction in respiration 2 weeks after spillage of 1·45 mg Empire Mix crude oil per litre of water. Two months after the spill, primary productivity and respiration in the oiled pond were only 17% and 7% lower, respectively than in the control pond. In the experimental impoundments at a concentration of 0·2 mg Arabian, Empire Mix and Nigerian oil per litre of water, in situ radiocarbon uptake by phytoplankton was lower—but not significantly lower—than that of the control impoundment. One to two months later, primary productivity was significantly higher in the Nigerian and Arabian oil ponds than control and Empire Mix ponds. The changes in plankton metabolism in both natural ponds and impoundments were evaluated on the basis of data simultaneously obtained from adjoining control ponds.     

Analysis of channel transmission losses in a dryland river reach in north‐eastern Brazil using streamflow series,groundwater level series and multi‐temporal satellite data

Scarcity of hydrological data, especially streamflow discharge and groundwater level series, restricts the understanding of channel transmission losses (TL) in drylands. Furthermore, the lack of information on spatial river dynamics encompasses high uncertainty on TL analysis in large rivers. The objective of this study was to combine the information from streamflow and groundwater level series with multi‐temporal satellite data to derive a hydrological concept of TL for a reach of the Middle Jaguaribe River (MJR) in semi‐arid north‐eastern Brazil. Based on this analysis, we proposed strategies for its modelling and simulation. TL take place in an alluvium, where river and groundwater can be considered to be hydraulically connected. Most losses certainly infiltrated only through streambed and levees and not through the flood plains, as could be shown by satellite image analysis. TL events whose input river flows were smaller than a threshold did not reach the outlet of the MJR. TL events whose input flows were higher than this threshold reached the outlet losing on average 30% of their input. During the dry seasons (DS) and at the beginning of rainy seasons (DS/BRS), no river flow is expected for pre‐events, and events have vertical infiltration into the alluvium. At the middle and the end of the rainy seasons (MRS/ERS), river flow sustained by base flow occurs before/after events, and lateral infiltration into the alluvium plays a major role. Thus, the MJR shifts from being a losing river at DS/BRS to become a losing/gaining (mostly losing) river at MRS/ERS. A model of this system has to include the coupling of river and groundwater flow processes linked by a leakage approach. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ecohydrological responses to surface flow across borders: Two decades of changes in vegetation greenness and water use in the riparian corridor of the Colorado River delta

Hydrological and bioclimatic processes that lead to drought may stress plants and wildlife, restructure plant community type and architecture, increase monotypic stands and bare soils, facilitate the invasion of non-native plant species and accelerate soil erosion. Our study focuses on the impact of a paucity of Colorado River surface flows from the United States (U.S.) to Mexico. We measured change in riparian plant greenness and water use over the past two decades using remotely sensed measurements of vegetation index (VI), evapotranspiration (ET) and a new annualized phenology assessment metric (PAM) for ET. We measure these long-term (2000–2019) metrics and their short-term (2014–2019) response to an environmental pulse flow in 2014, as prescribed under Minute 319 of the 1944 Water Treaty between the two nations. In subsequent years, small-directed flows were provided to restoration areas under Minute 323. We use 250 m MODIS and 30 m Landsat imagery to evaluate three vegetation indices (NDVI, EVI, EVI2). We select EVI2 to parameterize an optical-based ET algorithm and test the relationship between ET from Landsat and MODIS by regression approaches. Our analyses show significant decreases in VIs and ET for both the 20-year and post-pulse 5-year periods. Over the last 20 years, EVI _Landsat declined 34% (30% by EVI_MODIS) and ET_Landsat-EVI declined 38% (27% by ET_MODIS-EVI), overall ca. 1.61 mm/day or 476 mm/year drop in ET; using PAM ET_Landsat-EVI the drop was from 1130 to 654 mm/year. Over the 5 years since the 2014 pulse flow, EVI_Landsat declined 20% (13% by EVI_MODIS) and ET_Landsat-EVI declined 23% (4% by ET_MODIS-EVI) with a 0.77 mm/day or a 209 mm/year 5-year drop in ET; using PAM ET_Landsat-EVI the drop was from 863 to 654 mm/year. Data and change maps show the pulse flow contributed enough water to slow the rate of loss, but only for the very short-term (1–2 years). These findings are critically important as they suggest further deterioration of biodiversity, wildlife habitat and key ecosystem services due to anthropogenic diversions of water in the U.S. and Mexico and from land clearing, fires and plant-related drought which affect hydrological processes.     

Comparative analysis of a new assessment of the seismic risk of residential buildings of two districts of Barcelona

Natural Hazards - There are personal and institutional decisions that can increase the seismic resilience of the buildings in a city. However, some of these decisions are possible if we have basic...     

An Innovative Post Grouting Technique for Soil Nails

This study presents an innovative technique of executing soil nails called sectorized post grouting (SPG). The most utilized technique of soil nail grouting is gravity grouting, with the literature reporting advances in pressurized grouting. Although obtaining higher pullout resistance of soil nails, pressurized grouting, mostly done in single-stage grouting, does not compensate for exudation and its use in higher nail lengths is difficult. Thus, a technique has been developed that compensates for exudation, with easier application in lengthier nails. The technique was qualitatively assessed to evaluate its surface roughness and later applied in seven real soil nailing works, where it could be quantitatively assessed. The results show that sectorized post-grouted nails obtained greater pullout resistances than gravity grouted and single-stage grouted nails. Although similar improvement was found in tube-à-manchette (TAM) grouted nails, this method presents lower economic efficiency than sectorized post grouting. The pullout resistance results obtained in this study can be utilized in future soil nailing works executed utilizing SPG.