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41.
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are often used for the development of hydro-climatic variable forecasts based on teleconnection methods. Such methods rely on projections or linear combinations of teleconnection indices [e.g. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] and other predictor fields. This study introduces a new hydro-climatic forecasting method identifying SST “dipole” predictors motivated by major teleconnection patterns. An SST dipole is defined as a function of average SST anomalies over two oceanic areas of specific sizes and geographic locations. An optimization algorithm is developed to search for the most significant SST dipole predictors of an external hydro-climatic series based on the Gerrity Skill Score. The significant dipoles are cross-validated and used to generate multiple forecast values. The new method is applied to the forecasting of seasonal precipitation over the southeast US. Hindcasting results show that significant dipoles related to ENSO as well as other prominent patterns at different lead times can indeed be identified. The dipole method also compares favorably with existing statistical forecasting schemes with respect to multiple skill measures. Furthermore, an operational forecasting framework able to produce ensemble forecast traces and uncertainty intervals that can support regional water resources planning and management is also developed. 相似文献
42.
Kosmas Pavlopoulos Aris Leontaritis Constantin D. Athanassas Chara Petrakou Dimitris Vandarakis Kosnstantinos Nikolakopoulos Leonidas Stamatopoulos Katherina Theodorakopoulou 《山地科学学报》2018,15(5):948-965
This study deals with the analysis of the glacial processes that have affected the relief of Mt Chelmos in northern Peloponnesus, Greece during middle and Late Pleistocene. The goal was to compile a combined geomorphological-geological map of the study area which would enable the chronological stratification of the glacial landforms cropping up on Mt. Chelmos. Chronological stratification was further aided by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. The map served as the basis upon which the reconstruction and discussion on the phases of the Middle-Late Quaternary paleoclimatic history of Mt. Chelmos have been made. A sophisticated semiautomated method was first used to analyze the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), combined with Aster, Quickbird and ALOS imagery in order to identify glacial and periglacial, as well as karstic features. Then, these features along with other nonrecognizable features from the remote-sensing images were documented in the field. In this way, several glacial landforms were identified, such as moraines and cirques, indicating extended glaciation phases during the middle and Late Pleistocene. Additionally, a ground moraine located at an altitude of 1900-2050 m, within the Spanolakos glacial valley, was dated using the OSL-dating method. The resulting ages indicate a phase of glacier advance/stabilization during MIS-5b (89-86 ka), which is in consistence with pollenrecord evidence from Greece and the Mediterranean. 相似文献
43.
Chin Yik Lin Mohd. Harun Abdullah Baba Musta Sarva Mangala Praveena Ahmad Zaharin Aris 《Natural Resources Research》2011,20(1):45-56
A total of 20 soil samples were collected from 10 boreholes constructed in the low lying area, which included ancillary samples
taken from the high elevation area. Redox processes were investigated in the soil as well as groundwater in the shallow groundwater
aquifer of Manukan Island, Sabah, Malaysia. Groundwater samples (n = 10) from each boreholes were also collected in the low lying area to understand the concentrations and behaviors of Fe
and Mn in the dissolved state. This study strives to obtain a general understanding of the stability behaviors on Fe and Mn
at the upper unsaturated and the lower-saturated soil horizons in the low lying area of Manukan Island as these elements usually
play a major role in the redox chemistry of the shallow groundwater. Thermodynamic calculations using PHREEQC showed that
the groundwater samples in the study area are oversaturated with respect to goethite, hematite, Fe(OH)3 and undersaturated with respect to manganite and pyrochroite. Low concentrations of Fe and Mn in the groundwater might be
probably due to the lack of minerals of iron and manganese oxides, which exist in the sandy aquifer. In fact, high organic
matters that present in the unsaturated horizon are believed to be responsible for the high Mn content in the soil. It was
observed that the soil samples collected from high elevation area (BK) comprises considerable amount of Fe in both unsaturated (6675.87 mg/kg) and saturated horizons (31440.49 mg/kg) compared
to the low Fe content in the low lying area. Based on the stability diagram, the groundwater composition lies within the stability
field for Mn2+ and Fe2+ under suboxic condition and very close to the FeS/Fe2+ stability boundary. This study also shows that both pH and Eh values comprise a strong negative value thus suggesting that
the redox potential is inversely dependent on the changes of pH. 相似文献
44.
Adamu Mustapha Ahmad Zaharin Aris Hafizan Juahir Mohammad Firuz Ramli 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(12):4903-4915
The present study investigates the surface water quality of three important tributaries of Jakara Basin, northwestern Nigeria to provide an overview of the relationship and sources of physicochemical and biological parameters. A total of 405 water samples were collected from 27 sampling points and analyzed for 13 parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), pH, ammonia-nitrogen (NH3NL), dissolved solids (DS), total solids (TS), nitrates (NO3), chloride (Cl), phosphates (PO4), Escherichia coli (E. coli) and fecal coliform bacteria (FCB). Pearson’s product–moment correlation matrix and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to distinguish the main pollution sources in the basin. Four varimax components were extracted from PCA, which explained 84.86, 83.60, and 78.69 % of the variation in the surface water quality for Jakara, Tsakama, and Gama-Kwari Rivers, respectively. Strong positive loading included BOD5, COD, NH3NL, E. coli, and FCB with negative loading on DO attribute to a domestic waste water pollution source. One-way ANOVA revealed that there was no significant difference in the mean of the three water bodies (p?>?0.05). It is therefore recommended that the government should be more effective in controlling the point source of pollution in the area. 相似文献
45.
Don Melrose rew Miller Aris Karastergiou † Qinghuan Luo 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,365(2):638-646
We present an empirical model for single pulses of radio emission from pulsars based on Gaussian probability distributions for relevant variables. The radiation at a specific pulse phase is represented as the superposition of radiation in two (approximately) orthogonally polarized modes (OPMs) from one or more subsources in the emission region of the pulsar. For each subsource, the polarization states are drawn randomly from statistical distributions, with the mean and the variance on the Poincaré sphere as free parameters. The intensity of one OPM is chosen from a lognormal distribution, and the intensity of the other OPM is assumed to be partially correlated, with the degree of correlation also chosen from a Gaussian distribution. The model is used to construct simulated data described in the same format as real data: distributions of the polarization of pulses on the Poincaré sphere and histograms of the intensity and other parameters. We concentrate on the interpretation of data for specific phases of PSR B0329+54 for which the OPMs are not orthogonal, with one well defined and the other spread out around an annulus on the Poincaré sphere at some phases. The results support the assumption that the radiation emerges in two OPMs with closely correlated intensities, and that in a statistical fraction of pulses one OPM is invisible. 相似文献
46.
Groundwater resources assessment using numerical model: A case study in low-lying coastal area 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
S. M. Praveena A. Z. Aris Ph.D. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2010,7(1):135-146
The impacts of climate change and human pressure in groundwater have been greatest threats facing small islands. This paper represents a case study of groundwater responses towards the climate change and human pressures in Manukan Island Malaysia. SEAWAT-2000 was used for the simulations of groundwater response in study area. Simulations of six scenarios representing climate change and human pressures showed changes in hydraulic heads and chloride concentrations. Reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate can alter the bad effects of overdrafts in Manukan Island. In general, reduction in pumping rate and an increase in recharge rate are capable to restore and protect the groundwater resources in Manukan Island. Thus, for groundwater management options in Manukan Island, scenario 2 is capable to lessen the seawater intrusion into the aquifer and sustain water resources on a long-term basis. The selection of scenario 6 is the preeminent option during wet season. The output of this study provides a foundation which can be used in other small islands of similar hydrogeological condition for the purpose of groundwater resources protection. 相似文献
47.
48.
Avery L. C. Shinneman Danuta M. Bennett Sherilyn C. Fritz Jens Schmieder Daniel R. Engstrom Aris Efting John Holz 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(2):443-464
The Nebraska Sand Hills are a distinctive eco-region in the semi-arid Great Plains of the western United States. The water
table underlying the Sand Hills is part of the High Plains/Ogallala aquifer, an important water resource for the central Great
Plains. Lake levels are affected directly by fluctuations in the water table, which is recharged primarily by local precipitation
and responds quickly to climatically induced changes in regional water balance. Instrumental records are available for only
50–100 years, and paleolimnological data provide important insights into the extremes and variability in moisture balance
over longer time scales. A set of 69 lakes from across Nebraska was used to establish a statistical relationship between diatom
community composition and water depth. This relationship was then used to develop a diatom-based inference model for water
depth using weighted averaging regression and calibration techniques. Development of the inference model was complicated by
strong intra-seasonal variability in water depth and the linkages between depth and other limnologic characteristics, including
alkalinity, water clarity and nutrient concentrations. Analysis of historical diatom communities from eight lakes allowed
for the reconstruction of lake-level fluctuations over the past several thousand years. Comparisons of the more recent portion
of these reconstructions with the instrumental Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) showed that sediment records may not faithfully
reflect short-term fluctuations in water level, except where sedimentation rates are very high. However, large and persistent
changes in moisture availability were discernible even in longer, low-resolution records. Thus, diatoms are a useful addition
to the tools available for understanding past drought in the central Great Plains, especially when trajectories of change
are constrained by data from multiple sites or other proxies. 相似文献
49.
Monitoring land subsidence in Semarang,Indonesia 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Semarang is one of the biggest cities in Indonesia and nowadays suffering from extended land subsidence, which is due to groundwater
withdrawal, to natural consolidation of alluvium soil and to the load of constructions. Land subsidence causes damages to
infrastructure, buildings, and results in tides moving into low-lying areas. Up to the present, there has been no comprehensive
information about the land subsidence and its monitoring in Semarang. This paper examines digital elevation model (DEM) and
benchmark data in Geographic Information System (GIS) raster operation for the monitoring of the land subsidence in Semarang.
This method will predict and quantify the extent of subsidence in future years. The future land subsidence prediction is generated
from the expected future DEM in GIS environment using ILWIS package. The procedure is useful especially in areas with scarce
data. The resulting maps designate the area of land subsidence that increases rapidly and it is predicted that in 2020, an
area of 27.5 ha will be situated 1.5–2.0 m below sea level. This calculation is based on the assumption that the rate of land
subsidence is linear and no action is taken to protect the area from subsidence. 相似文献
50.
Michel Anastassiades Leonide Carapiperis Aris Nassopoulos 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1969,75(1):175-184
Sommaire Une étude radiométéorologique en mer close, a été initiée par le Groupe Radiométéorologique de l'OTAN. Pour completer les resultats des mesures au dessus du Canal d'Otranto (Martina Franca-Corfou) publiées en collaboration avec le Groupe Italien du Service de l'Aeronautique Militaire, des mesures au dessus de la mer de Libye sur la partie SE de la Mediterranée, d'une liaison transhorizon de 725 km entre le Caire et la ville d'Ierapetra, ont été enterprises.Pour expliquer le mecanisme de cette propagation transhorizon, on a appliqué une méthode d'analyse, basée sur les courbes de distribution du champs reçue en fonction du pourcentage du temps, indiquée par l'un des auteurs (Anastassiadis). Les courbes de distribution Rayleigh ou SuperRayleigh, obtenues pendant la période chaude, indiquent un mécanisme de reflection diffusée, tandis que les courbes avec des pentes superieures d'une Rayleigh pure, pendant la periode froide indiquent un mécanisme de guidage. L'hypothèse ci-dessus est supportée par le fait que les variations en altitudes des surfaces isobares suivant les periodes chaudes ou froides, presentent un fort coefficient de correlation avec les intensités du champ reçu.
Summary A radiometeorological study of VHF propagation along transhorizon paths over several parts of the Mediterranean sea, was initiated by the Radiometeorological Panel of NATO's Science Committee. After a study over the Otranto channel (Martina Franca-Corfu) performed in collaboration with the Italian group, in the present paper is investigated the 725 km, mainly over the Lybean sea transhorizon path Cairo City to lerapetra, located in the South cost of Creta island. Three years fieldstrengths measurements were analysed in Ierapetra center. Following the observed results, during the warm period of the year it is a good reception, while during the cold period the reception was very poor or inexistant.In order to explain the mechanism of this transhorizon propagation, a method of analysis based on the distribution curves, as indicated by one of the authors (Anastassiadis) was used. Rayleigh or super-Rayleigh distribution curves of the received signalstrength versus time percentage observed during the warm period indicate a diffused reflection mechanism while Sub-Rayleigh distribution observed during the cold period indicate a ducting mechanism. These results are supported by the close correlation observed between the variation in altitudes of isobaric surfaces and the location of volume following the warm or cold period of the year in which the diffused reflection mechanism is produced.相似文献