Performance of general circulation models and their ensembles for the prediction of drought indices over India during summer monsoon

The drought during the months of June to September (JJAS) results in significant deficiency in the annual rainfall and affects the hydrological planning, disaster management, and the agriculture sector of India. Advance information on drought characteristics over the space may help in risk assessment over the country. This issue motivated the present study which deals with the prediction of drought during JJAS through standardized precipitation index (SPI) using nine general circulation models (GCM) product. Among these GCMs, three are the atmospheric and six are atmosphere–ocean coupled models. The performance of these GCM’s predicted SPI is examined against the observed SPI for the time period of 1982–2010. After a rigorous analysis, it can be concluded that the skill of prediction by GCM is not satisfactory, whereas the ability of the coupled models is better than the atmospheric models. An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of predicted SPI using two different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes, viz., arithmetic mean and weighted mean using singular value decomposition-based multiple linear regressions (SVD-MLR) of GCMs. It is found that among these MME techniques, SVD-MLR-based MME has more skill as compared to simple MME as well as individual GCMs.     

A study of secondary cosmic ray flux variation during the annular eclipse of 15 January 2010 at Rameswaram, India

The gamma ray flux was measured during the annular solar eclipse on January 15, 2010 at Rameswaram, India using NaI (Tl) scintillator detectors and the variation in charged particles and gamma rays was monitored using Geiger Mu¨ller (GM) counters. The gamma ray flux variation was studied in energy range of 0.1–3.5 MeV. Weather parameters (temperature and humidity) were continuously recorded throughout the duration of the eclipse at the site and correlation between gamma ray flux and weather parameters was examined. Analysis of the secondary cosmic ray flux using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) was carried out to study the impact of the eclipse on the flux modulation. An overall decrease in flux was observed by both GM counters and scintillator detectors. A relative enhancement observed for short time during the eclipse which could be associated with the presence of counter electrojet observed at Rameswaram. This is suggestive of an increase in secondary cosmic ray flux at the geomagnetic equator during every counter electrojet due to decrease in geomagnetic rigidity.     

Geographic Information System and groundwater quality mapping in Panvel Basin,Maharashtra, India

Panvel Basin of Raigarh district, Maharashtra, India is the study area for groundwater quality mapping using the Geographic Information System (GIS). The study area is typically covered by Deccan basaltic rock types of Cretaceous to Eocene age. Though the basin receives heavy rainfall, it frequently faces water scarcity problems as well as water quality problems in some specific areas. Hence, a GIS based groundwater quality mapping has been carried out in the region with the help of data generated from chemical analysis of water samples collected from the basin. Groundwater samples show quality exceedence in terms of chloride, hardness, TDS and salinity. These parameters indicate the level of quality of groundwater for drinking and irrigation purposes. Idrisi 32 GIS software was used for generation of various thematic maps and for spatial analysis and integration to produce the final groundwater quality map. The groundwater quality map shows fragments pictorially representing groundwater zones that are desirable and undesirable for drinking and irrigation purposes.     

Spatiotemporal variability of multifractal properties of fineresolution daily gridded rainfall fields over India

Natural Hazards - This study investigated the multifractal characteristics of fine resolution (0.25ox0.25°) daily gridded rainfall fields of India over the period 1901–2013 to examine...     

Isotope–geochemical characterization and geothermometrical modeling of Uttarakhand geothermal field,India

Uttarakhand geothermal area, located in the central belt of the Himalayan geothermal province, is one of the important high temperature geothermal fields in India. In this study, the chemical characteristics of the thermal waters are investigated to identify the main geochemical processes affecting the composition of thermal waters during its ascent toward the surface as well as to determine the subsurface temperature of the feeding reservoir. The thermal waters are mainly Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type with moderate silica and TDS concentrations. Mineral saturation states calculated from PHREEQC geochemical code indicate that thermal waters are supersaturated with respect to calcite, dolomite, aragonite, chalcedony, quartz (SI > 0), and undersaturated with respect to gypsum, anhydrite, and amorphous silica (SI < 0). XRD study of the spring deposit samples fairly corroborates the predicted mineral saturation state of the thermal waters. Stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) data confirm the meteoric origin of the thermal waters with no oxygen-18 shift. The mixing phenomenon between thermal water with shallow ground water is substantiated using tritium (³H) and chemical data. The extent of dilution is quantified using tritium content of thermal springs and non-thermal waters. Classical geothermometers, mixing model, and multicomponent fluid geothermometry modeling (GeoT) have been applied to estimate the subsurface reservoir temperature. Among different classical geothermometers, only quartz geothermometer provide somewhat reliable estimation (96–140 °C) of the reservoir temperature. GeoT modeling results suggest that thermal waters have attained simultaneous equilibrium with respect to minerals like calcite, quartz, chalcedony, brucite, tridymite, cristobalite, talc, at the temperature 130 ± 5 °C which is in good agreement with the result obtained from the mixing model.     

Soil depth estimation through soil-landscape modelling using regression kriging in a Himalayan terrain

Soil formation depends upon several factors such as parent material, soil biota, topography and climate. It is difficult to use conventional soil survey methods for mapping the depth of soil in complex mountainous terrains. In this context, the present study aimed to estimate the soil depth for a large area (330.35 km²) using different geo-environmental factors through a soil-landscape regression kriging (RK) model in the Darjeeling Himalayas. RK with seven predictor variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, general curvature, topographic wetness index, distance from the streams and land use, was used to estimate the soil depth. While topographic parameters were derived from an 8-m resolution digital elevation model, the ortho-rectified Cartosat-1 satellite image was used to prepare the land use map. Soil depth measured at 148 sites within the study area was used to calibrate and validate the RK model. The result showed that the RK model with the seven predictors could explain 67% spatial variability of soil depth with a prediction variance between 0.23 and 0.42 m at the test site. In the regression analysis, land use (0.133) and slope (–0.016) were identified as significant determinants of soil depth. The prediction map showed higher soil depth in south-facing slopes and near valleys in comparison to other areas. Mean, mean absolute and root mean-square errors were used to access the reliability of the prediction, which indicated a goodness-of-fit of the RK model.     

Response of a dryland fluvial system to climate–tectonic perturbations during the Late Quaternary: Evidence from Rukmawati River basin,Kachchh, western India

Dryland rivers, dominated by short-lived, localised and highly variable flow due to discrete precipitation events, have characteristic preservation potential, which serves as suitable archives towards understanding the climate–tectonic coupling. In the present study, we have investigated the fluvial records of a major, southerly-draining river – the Rukmawati River in the dryland terrain of southern Kachchh, in western India. The sediment records along the bedrock rivers of Kachchh register imprints of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which is the major source of moisture to the fluvial system in western India. The Rukmawati River originates from the Katrol Hill Range in the north and flows towards the south, into the Gulf of Kachchh. The field stratigraphy, sedimentology, along with the optical chronology suggests that a braided-meandering system existed during 37 ka period due to an overall strengthened monsoon. A gradual decline in the monsoon strength with fluctuation facilitated the development of a braided channel system between 20 and 15 ka. A renewed phase of strengthened monsoon with seasonality after around 15 ka which persisted until around 11 ka, is implicated in the development of floodplain sequences. Two zones of relatively high bedrock uplift are identified based on the geomorphometry and morphology of the fluvial landform. These zones are located in the vicinity of the North Katrol Hill Fault (NKHF) and South Katrol Hill Fault (SKHF). Geomorphic expression of high bedrock uplift is manifested by the development of beveled bedrock prior to or around 20 ka during weak monsoon. The study suggests that the terrain in the vicinity of NKHF and SKHF is uplifting at around 0.8 and >0.3 mm/a, respectively. Simultaneously, the incision in the Rukmawati River basin, post 11 ka, is ascribed to have occurred due to lowered sea level during the LGM and early Holocene period.     

Using Audience Physiology to Assess Engaging Conservation Messages and Animal Taxa

Abstract

We used heart rate change as a tool to study how positive and negative wildlife conservation messaging impacts a viewer, and which types of animal images stimulate greatest reaction. We used scenes from five wildlife conservation videos available from environmental organization websites and YouTube, with positive and negative messaging. We found both very positive and very negative messaging in videos may be similarly effective in engaging viewers. A trend in greater changes in heart rate when insects, mammals, and birds appear on the screen suggests generally high human interest in these taxa, potentially due to avoidance and attraction responses. The number of scenes (N?=?54) in which various taxa appear reflects bias toward mammals (65%) and birds (17%) to capture viewers’ attention. Arousal is a primary step in engaging an audience to attend to a message. Physiological research offers innovative new techniques to evaluate public responses to communications about biodiversity conservation.