Compositional time series analysis for Air Pollution Index data

The increasing importance of understanding the structure of Air Pollution Index (API) makes it necessary to come out with a compositional of API based on its pollutants. This will be more comprehensible for the public and easier to cooperate with authorities in reducing the causes of air pollution. Since five pollutants contribute in determining the API values, API can be shown as a compositional data. This study is conducted based on the data of API and its pollutants collected from Klang city in Malaysia for the period of January 2005 to December 2014. The proportion of each pollutant in API is considered as a component with five components in a compositional API. The existence of zero components in some pollutants, that have no effect on API, is a serious problem that prevents the application of log-ratio transformation. Thus, the approach of amalgamation has been used to combine the components with zero in order to reduce the number of zeros. Also, a multiplicative replacement has been utilized to eliminate the zero components and replace them with a small value that maintains the ratios of nonzero components. Transforming the compositional data to log-ratio coordinates has been done using the additive log ratio transformation, and the transformed series is then modeled by using a VAR model. Four criteria are used to determine the number of lags p of VAR(p) and these are: the Akaike Information, the Schwartz, the Hannan–Quinn and the Final Prediction Error criteria. Based on the results, A VAR (1) model with no constants or trend is considered as the best fitted model and it is used to forecast 12 months ahead. In addition, API values are mainly determined by PM₁₀ that has a proportion close to one most of the time during study period. Therefore, authorities and researchers need to study the sources of PM₁₀ and provide the public with useful information and alternatives in term of reducing the air pollution.     

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (M_W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M_W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.     

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.     

Geology,mineralogy and fluid inclusion study of Oued Jebs Pb–Zn–Sr deposit; comparison with the Bou Grine deposit (diapirs zone,Tunisian atlas)

The Oued Jebs Pb–Zn–Sr deposit is situated on the south edge of the Mourra Triassic diapir, in the Diapir Zone of the Tunisian Atlas. Tow orebody-type are recognized: (1) lens-chapped orebodies hosted in the Dolomitic cap rock that marks the transition zone between the Triassic gypsum cap rock and the overlaying Late Cretaceous series. Mineralization is composed of epigenetic celestite and minor Pb–Zn sulfides. (2) Vein-type and massive-type orebodies crosscutting the Late Cenomanian and Turonian limestone. Mineralization is composed of high-grade ore ranging from 10 to 25 % combined Pb–Zn. Fluid inclusion data for celestite indicate that deposition took place between 70 and 100 °C, or more cooler conditions as indicated by the presence of single-phase inclusions, from mixed NaCl–CaCl₂-bearing brines (12–19 wt% NaCl equiv). For the vein-type and massive-type fluid inclusion, data recorded in sphalerite indicate that sulfide deposition took place between 125 and 130 °C mixed NaCl–CaCl₂-bearing brines (10–15 wt% NaCl equiv). At least three dilution and cooling trends are also observed that indicate the involvement of more than one fluid in the Oued Jebs hydrothermal system. The epigenetic character of the ores, the host rock nature and the fluid inclusion together permitted to include the Oued Jebs deposit in the large class of MVT deposits and preciously in the sub-class of MVTs associated with salt diapirs environment. The new discovered Oued Jebs deposit is similar in many aspects to the economic Bou Grine deposit. This may point to significant other potential for economic Pb–Zn concentrations that may be located at depth alongside or above many other unexplored Triassic diapirs in the Diapirs zone of the Tunisian Atlas.     

3D Static Modeling and Petrographic Aspects of the Albian/Cenomanian Reservoir,Komombo Basin,Upper Egypt

Natural Resources Research - The Albian/Cenomanian reservoir is one of the two main reservoirs composing the petroleum system in the Komombo Basin. However, these reservoirs have not previously...     

Monitoring disasters with a constellation of satellites – type examples from the International Charter ‘Space and Major Disasters’

In the case of a major disaster, information derived from satellite observation is not only highly useful, it may at times be indispensable because of the damage caused by the disaster to ground infrastructure. The International Charter ‘Space and Major Disasters’ (‘the Charter’) has been one of the primary sources of satellite data for the past 11 years to cover events like floods, fires, tsunamis, ocean storms, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and oil spills. With the growing membership of the Charter, an increasingly large number of sensors are now available, which can be planned with the required temporal frequency and spectral range to cover a disaster event. Some of the type Charter activation cases are reported in this article to demonstrate the innovative use of multi-satellite imagery for disaster response.     

Vulnerability of Kuwait coast to sea level rise

Assessing coastal vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) at local and regional scales is a fundamental step for designing successful long-term coastal management plans. This study was thus designed to assess Kuwait coastal vulnerability to SLR at four scenarios (.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 m). Potential inundated areas and the number of people at risk were estimated based on these SLR scenarios. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) map of Kuwait was then computed based on the lowest scenario using eight parameters: elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, distance to 20-m isobath, population, land use, cultural heritage and transportation. The geographic distribution of inundated areas at an SLR of .5 m revealed that the northern islands of Kuwait and coastal areas along Kuwait Bay would be highly impacted, whereas the coastal area near Shuaibah Port was the most influenced among the southern coasts. Most of the coastal area exhibited a moderate vulnerability to SLR, especially the northern islands. This study presented an initial vulnerability assessment for Kuwait coasts to SLR, which can be extended with more variables. The integrated remote sensing and geographic information system methodology demonstrated in this study can be applied in similar studies elsewhere.     

Identifying Groundwater Potential in Crystalline Basement Rocks Using Remote Sensing and Electromagnetic Sounding Techniques in Central Western Mozambique

Exploring for groundwater in crystalline rocks in semiarid areas is a challenge because of their complex hydrogeology and low potential yields. An integrated approach was applied in central western Mozambique, in an area covered by Precambrian crystalline basement rocks. The approach combined a digital elevation model (DEM), remote sensing, and a ground-based geophysical survey. The aim was to identify groundwater zones with high potential and to identify geological structures controlling that potential. Lineaments were extracted from the DEM that had been enhanced using an adaptive-tilt, multi-directional, shading technique and a non-filtering technique to characterize the regional fracture system. The shallowness and amount of stored groundwater in the fracture zones was assessed using vegetation indices derived from Landsat 8 OLI images. Then, 14 transient electromagnetic (TEM) survey profiles were taken in different geological settings across continuous lineaments that were considered to be aligned along inferred faults. In the central lineament zones, the TEM soundings gave resistivity values of less than 300 Ωm at a depth of 20–80 m. The values varied with location. Conversely, values greater than 400 Ωm were observed at the sites away from the central zones. This contrast is probably caused by the differences in permeability and degree of weathering along the fractured zones. These differences could be key factors in determining groundwater occurrence. By integrating five water-related factors (lineament density, slope, geology, vegetation index, and proximity to lineaments), high groundwater potential zones were located in the vicinity of the lineaments. In these zones, vegetation remains active regardless of the season.     

Interpretation of magnetic data using analytic signal derivatives

This paper develops an automatic method for interpretation of magnetic data using derivatives of the analytic signal. A linear equation is derived to provide source location parameters of a 2D magnetic body without a priori information about the nature of the source. Then using the source location parameters, the nature of the source can be ascertained. The method has been tested using theoretical simulations with random noise for two 2D magnetic models placed at different depths with respect to the observation height. In both cases, the method gave a good estimate for the location and shape of the sources. Good results were obtained on two field data sets.     

Experimental Study of Undrained Shear Strength of Silty Sand: Effect of Fines and Gradation

Two strong earthquakes occurred in the region of Chlef (north western part of Algeria) during the last century. From the geological context, there were several great masses of sandy soil ejections on to the ground surface level and severe damages to civil and hydraulic structures. These damages were due to the soil liquefaction phenomenon. The objective of this laboratory investigation is to study the effect of low plastic fines and gradation characteristics on the undrained shear strength (liquefaction resistance) response of sand-silt mixture samples. For this purpose, a series of undrained monotonic triaxial tests were carried out on reconstituted saturated silty sand samples with different fines content ranging from 0 to 50?% at two initial relative densities (D_r?=?20 and 91?%). The initial confining pressure was kept at 100?kPa. The evaluation of the data indicates that the undrained shear strength at the peak (q_peak) can be correlated to the undrained residual strength (S_us), the excess pore pressure (Δu), the fines content (F_c) and the intergranular void ratio (e_s). The test results indicate also that the undrained shear strength at the peak decreases with the increment of the coefficient of uniformity and fines content as well as with the decrement of the mean grain size in the range of 0–50?% fines content for both relative densities (D_r?=?20 and 91?%).