An evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating future rainfall and extreme events over Mzingwane catchment,Zimbabwe

The study evaluated CORDEX RCMs’ ability to project future rainfall and extreme events in the Mzingwane catchment using an ensemble average of three RCMs (RCA4, REMO2009 and CRCM5). Model validation employed the statistical mean and Pearson correlation, while trends in projected rainfall and number of rainy days were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the magnitudes of trends were determined by Sen’s slope estimator. Temporal and spatial distribution of future extreme dryness and wetness was established by using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results show that RCMs adequately represented annual and inter-annual rainfall variability and the ensemble average outperformed individual models. Trend results for the projected rainfall suggest a significant decreasing trend in future rainfall (2016–2100) for all stations at p < 0.05. In addition, a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is projected for future climate, although the significance and magnitude varied with station location. Model results suggest an increased occurrence of future extreme events, particularly towards the end of the century. The findings are important for developing proactive sustainable strategies for future climate change adaption and mitigation.     

Delineating low-arsenic groundwater environments in the Bengal Aquifer System, Bangladesh

Studies within the As-affected Bengal Basin have indicated that low-As groundwater can be found in a variety of geological and geomorphological settings. The hydrogeological environments that host low-As groundwater may be interpreted within a geological framework determined by the Quaternary evolution of the Bengal Aquifer System (BAS). This provides the basis for delineating the position and extent of shallow low-As groundwater, low-As groundwater in oxidised ‘red-bed’ sediments, and deep low-As groundwater. Data available on a national scale allow a preliminary delineation of these low-As groundwater environments across Bangladesh, based on empirical associations of low-As groundwater occurrences with topography, water table elevation, surface sediment lithology, geology and the screen depth of deep wells in low-As zones.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir

The seismic hazard study for Pakistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir has been conducted by using probabilistic approach in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in m/s² and also seismic hazard response spectra for different cities. A new version of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1–53, 2005) ground acceleration model is used, and parameterization is based on most recent updated earthquake catalogs that consisted of 14,000 events. The threshold magnitude was fixed at M _w 4.8, but seismic zones like northern Pakistan–Tajikistan, Hindukush and northern Afghanistan–Tajikistan border had M _w 5.2. The average normalized ‘a’ and ‘b’ values for all zones are 6.15 and 0.95, respectively. Seismicity of study area was modeled, and ground motion was computed for eight frequencies (0.025, 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5 s) for different annual exceedance rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, 0.002 and 0.001 (return periods 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1,000 years) for stiff rocks at the gridding of 0.1° × 0.1°. Seismic hazard maps based on computed PGA for 0.02, 0.01 and 0.002 annual exceedance are prepared. These maps indicate the earthquake hazard of Pakistan and surrounding areas in the form of acceleration contour lines, which are in agreement with geological and seismotectonic characteristics of the study area. The maximum seismic hazard values are found at Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Quetta areas.     

Biotic response to the latest Cenomanian drowning and OAE2: A case study from the Eastern Desert of Egypt

The changes in macrofauna and microfauna, before, during and after the latest Cenomanian global Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE2), from the Eastern Desert of Egypt are documented, along with an inferred paleoenvironment. The age of the studied OAE2 interval is constrained by the last occurrence of the marker calcareous nannofossils species Axopodorhabdus albianus along with the previously identified positive δ¹³C excursion from the coeval ammonite Vascoceras cauvini Zone (= Neocardioceras juddii Zone), enabling correlation with the peak ‘b’ of the OAE2. Based on the studied microfaunal assemblages, a warm shallow restricted lagoonal environment with mesotrophic conditions and strong seasonality is inferred. The presence of a rare ammonite (and ostracods) attest to the intermittent introduction of marine waters within this inner ramp setting. In terms of sequence stratigraphy, two 3rd order depositional sequences are recorded. The top surface of the first depositional sequence, at the sequence boundary, SB Ce 5 (the start of the OAE2), is marked by an abrupt faunal change with reduced abundances of the macrofaunal elements. This is in tune with other Egyptian records of relatively smaller loss (10 %) at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary, as compared to much higher numbers (53–79% of species), globally. This faunal (biotic bottleneck) and lithological change (from siliciclastic-dominated deposits to a largely carbonate-dominated one) at the SB Ce 5 is attributed as a response to the latest Cenomanian drowning (the highest sea-level during the Phanerozoic), that also resulted in the formation of carbonate platform.     

Organic tracers in sediments from the coastal zone of Ras Abu el-Darag,Gulf of Suez

Sediment samples from the coastal zone of the Gulf of Suez contain a variety of organic compounds from anthropogenic and natural sources. A total of 12 surface samples of bottom sediments were collected with an Ekman grab sampler along an off-shore transect south of Ras Abu el-Darag. The samples were extracted with a mixture of dichloromethane and methanol (3:1 v/v) after drying and sieving through 250 μm mesh. The extracts were derivatized and analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry in order to characterize the chemical composition and sources of the organic components. Marine with minor terrestrial biota were the major natural sources of organic tracers and included n-alkanoic acids, sterols and saccharides (5.7–76.7%). Anthropogenic sources, from petroleum related activities, detergent usage for spill cleaning and littering, are indicated by the presence of n-alkanes with carbon preference index ≤1.0, hopanes, steranes, unresolved complex mixture of branched and cyclic hydrocarbons, alkyl nitriles, alkamides and plasticizers. Their total relative concentrations ranged from 23.3 to 97.3% of the total extracts. Petroleum residues from natural seepage may also be part of these hydrocarbons. The levels of anthropogenic inputs decrease from about 94% in coastal zone sediments to about 20% in sediments from the reef front.     

Bias correction method of high-resolution satellite-based precipitation product for Peninsular Malaysia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Satellite-based precipitation (SBP) is emerging as a reliable source for high-resolution rainfall estimates over the globe. However, uncertainty in SBP is...     

Stratigraphy of the Cenomanian–Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event OAE2 in shallow shelf sequences of NE Egypt

Two shallow water late Cenomanian to early Turonian sequences of NE Egypt have been investigated to evaluate the response to OAE2. Age control based on calcareous nannoplankton, planktic foraminifera and ammonite biostratigraphies integrated with δ¹³C stratigraphy is relatively good despite low diversity and sporadic occurrences. Planktic and benthic foraminiferal faunas are characterized by dysoxic, brackish and mesotrophic conditions, as indicated by low species diversity, low oxygen and low salinity tolerant planktic and benthic species, along with oyster-rich limestone layers. In these subtidal to inner neritic environments the OAE2 δ¹³C excursion appears comparable and coeval to that of open marine environments. However, in contrast to open marine environments where anoxic conditions begin after the first δ¹³C peak and end at or near the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary, in shallow coastal environments anoxic conditions do not appear until the early Turonian. This delay in anoxia appears to be related to the sea-level transgression that reached its maximum in the early Turonian, as observed in shallow water sections from Egypt to Morocco.     

Considerations for conducting incubations to study the mechanisms of As release in reducing groundwater aquifers

Microbial Fe reduction is widely believed to be the primary mechanism of As release from aquifer sands in Bangladesh, but alternative explanations have been proposed. Long-term incubation studies using natural aquifer material are one way to address such divergent views. This study addresses two issues related to this approach: (1) the need for suitable abiotic controls and (2) the spatial variability of the composition of aquifer sands. Four sterilization techniques were examined using orange-colored Pleistocene sediment from Bangladesh and artificial groundwater over 8 months. Acetate (10 mM) was added to sacrificial vials before sterilization using either (1) 25 kGy of gamma irradiation, (2) three 1-h autoclave cycles, (3) a single addition of an antibiotic mixture at 1× or (4) 10× the typical dose, and (5) a 10 mM addition of azide. The effectiveness of sterilization was evaluated using two indicators of microbial Fe reduction, changes in diffuse spectral reflectance and leachable Fe(II)/Fe ratios, as well as changes in P-extractable As concentrations in the solid phase. A low dose of antibiotics was ineffective after 70 days, whereas autoclaving significantly altered groundwater composition. Gamma irradiation, a high dose of antibiotics, and azide were effective for the duration of the experiment.