An empirical function to estimate the depths of linear hot sources: Laboratory modeling and field measurements of lava tubes

Estimating depths of buried lava tubes is important for determining the thermal budgets and effusion rates of basaltic volcanic systems. This research used a laboratory experiment scaled to a lava tube system to measure the 3D temperature field surrounding a hot viscous fluid flowing through a buried glass tube while varying conditions such as flow rate and temperature. The depth of the glass tube was changed for different experimental runs. Numerical techniques were applied to model the laboratory experiment. The surface thermal distributions from 166 thermal traverses, constrained to a depth to width ratio of 0.6 to 1.6, were analyzed to empirically derive a depth estimation function using regression techniques. This “Linear Anomaly Surface Transect (LAST)” depth function is a scaleable depth estimation technique which can be solved with thermal imaging data alone. The minimum temperature, maximum temperature and width of a Lorentzian distribution fit to a surface thermal transect, are the only inputs required for the LAST function to estimate the depths of the hot source. The input parameters were then applied to non-laboratory situations including the Kuhio lava tube system in Hawai’i. The LAST function produced depth estimates of ∼ 0.3 m for the Kuhio lava tube in Hawai’i, which did not agree with observations on the ground. This is the result of the complex composition and geometry of an actual lava tube where heat transfer is controlled by more than a simple fluid filling a tube, but also by convection of gasses and fluids in a partially filled passage. Though not effective for lava tubes at this time, the model provides promising results for simple cases applied to engineering and underground coal fires.     

The quasar fraction in low-frequency-selected complete samples and implications for unified schemes

Low-frequency radio surveys are ideal for selecting orientation-independent samples of extragalactic sources because the sample members are selected by virtue of their isotropic steep-spectrum extended emission. We use the new 7C Redshift Survey along with the brighter 3CRR and 6C samples to investigate the fraction of objects with observed broad emission lines – the 'quasar fraction'– as a function of redshift and of radio and narrow-emission-line luminosity. We find that the quasar fraction is more strongly dependent upon luminosity (both narrow-line and radio) than it is on redshift. Above a narrow [O  ii ] emission-line luminosity of log₁₀( L _{[O  ii ]}/W)≳35 [or radio luminosity log₁₀( L ₁₅₁/W Hz⁻¹ sr⁻¹)≳ 26.5], the quasar fraction is virtually independent of redshift and luminosity; this is consistent with a simple unified scheme with an obscuring torus with a half-opening angle θ _trans≈53°. For objects with less luminous narrow lines, the quasar fraction is lower. We show that this is not due to the difficulty of detecting lower luminosity broad emission lines in a less luminous, but otherwise similar, quasar population. We discuss evidence which supports at least two probable physical causes for the drop in quasar fraction at low luminosity: (i) a gradual decrease in θ _trans and/or a gradual increase in the fraction of lightly reddened (0≲ A _V ≲5) lines of sight with decreasing quasar luminosity; and (ii) the emergence of a distinct second population of low-luminosity radio sources which, like M87, lack a well-fed quasar nucleus and may well lack a thick obscuring torus.     

Holocene floristic diversity and richness in northeast Norway revealed by sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) and pollen

We present a Holocene record of floristic diversity and environmental change for the central Varanger Peninsula, Finnmark, based on ancient DNA extracted from the sediments of a small lake (sedaDNA). The record covers the period c. 10 700 to 3300 cal. a BP and is complemented by pollen data. Measures of species richness, sample evenness and beta diversity were calculated based on sedaDNA sampling intervals and 1000‐year time windows. We identified 101 vascular plant and 17 bryophyte taxa, a high proportion (86%) of which are still growing within the region today. The high species richness (>60 taxa) observed in the Early Holocene, including representatives from all important plant functional groups, shows that modern shrub‐tundra communities, and much of their species complement, were in place as early as c. 10 700 cal. a BP. We infer that postglacial colonization of the area occurred prior to the full Holocene, during the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition, Younger Dryas stadial or earlier. Abundant DNA of the extra‐limital aquatic plant Callitriche hermaphroditica suggests it expanded its range northward between c. 10 200 and 9600 cal. a BP, when summers were warmer than present. High values of Pinus DNA occur throughout the record, but we cannot say with certainty if they represent prior local presence; however, pollen influx values >500 grains cm^?2 a^?1 between c. 8000 and 7300 cal. a BP strongly suggest the presence of pine woodland during this period. As the site lies beyond the modern tree limit of pine, it is likely that this expansion also reflects a response to warmer Early Holocene summers.     

Climate prediction for adaptation: Who needs what?

The role of short- and long-term climate predictions in determining the success of adaptation to climate change is investigated. A simple theoretical model that captures the relationship between adaptive performance, decision structure, and prediction accuracy at different temporal scales is developed, and its implications deduced. It is shown that users who face high adjustment costs (i.e. are inflexible) depend more heavily on accurate long-term predictions than those who are able to adjust their adaptation strategies at low cost. However, the constraints on the accuracy of long-term predictions in order for them to be ‘accurate enough’ to be recommended unreservedly are strongest for precisely those users who desire them most. There are thus intrinsic structural limitations to the utility of long-term predictions for adaptive decision making. In addition, the heterogeneous dependence of adaptive performance on predictions at different temporal scales gives rise to a resource allocation problem for investments aimed at improving predictions so as to maximize their social benefits. It is suggested that an explicit distributional framework that matches users’ needs with scientific feasibility is needed in order to guide such investments, and key issues any such framework will need to address are discussed.     

Galaxy shear estimation from stacked images

Statistics of the weak lensing of galaxies can be used to constrain cosmology if the galaxy shear can be estimated accurately. In general, this requires accurate modelling of unlensed galaxy shapes and the point spread function (PSF). I discuss suboptimal but potentially robust methods for estimating galaxy shear by stacking images such that the stacked-image distribution is closely Gaussian by the central limit theorem. The shear can then be determined by radial fitting, requiring only an accurate model of the PSF rather than also needing to model each galaxy accurately. When noise is significant, asymmetric errors in the centroid must be corrected, but the method may ultimately be able to give accurate unbiased results when there is a high galaxy density with constant shear. It provides a useful baseline for more optimal methods, and a test case for estimating biases, though the method is not directly applicable to realistic data. I test stacking methods on the simple toy simulations with constant PSF and shear provided by the GREAT08 project, on which most other existing methods perform significantly more poorly, and briefly discuss generalizations to more realistic cases. In the Appendix , I discuss a simple analytic galaxy population model where stacking gives optimal errors in a perfect ideal case.     

The radio remnant of SN 1993J: an instrumental explanation for the evolving complex structure

We present simulated images of Supernova 1993J at 8.4 GHz using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) techniques. A spherically symmetric source model is convolved with realistic u v -plane distributions, together with standard imaging procedures, to assess the extent of instrumental effects on the recovered brightness distribution. In order to facilitate direct comparisons between the simulations and published VLBI images of SN 1993J, the observed u v -coverage is determined from actual VLBI observations made in the years following its discovery.
The underlying source model only exhibits radial variation in its density profile, with no azimuthal dependence and, even though this model is morphologically simple, the simulated VLBI observations qualitatively reproduce many of the azimuthal features of the reported VLBI observations, such as appearance and evolution of complex azimuthal structure and apparent rotation of the shell. We demonstrate that such features are inexorably coupled to the u v -plane sampling.
The brightness contrast between the peaks and the surrounding shell material are not as prominent in the simulations (which of course assume no antenna- or baseline-based amplitude or phase errors, meaning no self-calibration procedures will have incorporated any such features in models). It is conclusive that incomplete u v -plane sampling has a drastic effect on the final images for observations of this nature. Difference imaging reveals residual emission up to the 8σ level. Extreme care should be taken when using interferometric observations to directly infer the structure of objects such as supernovae.     

Ice sheet extent and early deglacial history of the southwestern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The offshore and coastal geomorphology of southwest Greenland records evidence for the advance and decay of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Regional ice flow patterns in the vicinity of Sisimiut show an enlarged ice sheet that extended southwestwards on to the shelf, with an ice stream centred over Holsteinsborg dyb. High level periglacial terrain composed of blockfield and tors is dated to between 101 and 142 ka using ²⁶Al and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic exposure ages. These limit the maximum surface elevation of the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheet in this part of southwest Greenland to ca 750–810 m asl, and demonstrate that terrain above this level has been ice free since MIS 6. Last Glacial Maximum ice thickness on the coast of ca 700 m implies that the ice sheet reached the mid to outer continental shelf edge to form the Outer Hellefisk moraines. Exposure dates record ice surface thinning from 21.0 to 9.8 ka, with downwasting rates varying from 0.06 to 0.12 m yr⁻¹. This reflects strong surface ablation associated with increased air temperatures running up to the Bølling Interstadial (GIS1e) at ca 14 ka, and later marine calving under high sea levels. The relatively late retreat of the Itilleq ice stream inland of the present coastline is similar to the pattern observed at Jakobshavn Isbræ, located 250 km north in Disko Bugt, which also retreated from the continental shelf after ca 10 ka. We hypothesise that the ice streams of West Greenland persisted on the inner shelf until the early Holocene because of their considerable ice thickness and greater ice discharge compared with the adjacent ice sheet.     

Sulfur dioxide in the tropical marine boundary layer: dry deposition and heterogeneous oxidation observed during the Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment

Research flights with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) C-130 airborne laboratory were conducted over the equatorial ocean during the Pacific Atmospheric Sulfur Experiment (PASE). The focused, repetitive flight plans provided a unique opportunity to explore the principal pathways of sulfur processing in remote marine environments in close detail. Fast airborne measurements of SO₂ using the Drexel University APIMS (Atmospheric Pressure Ionization Mass Spectrometer) instrument further provided unprecedented insight into the complete budget of this important sulfur gas. In general, turbulent mixing in the marine boundary layer (MBL) continuously depletes SO₂ due to the shallow convection of the tropical trade wind regime by venting the gas into the buffer layer (BuL) above. However, on nearly one-third of the flights a net import of SO₂ into the MBL from the BuL was observed. Concurrent measurements of the DMS budget allowed for a heterogeneous S(IV) oxidation rate to be inferred from the SO₂ budget residual. The average heterogeneous loss rate was found to be 0.05 h⁻¹, which taken in conjunction with the observed aerosol surface area distributions and O₃ levels indicates that the supermicron aerosols maintain a near neutral pH. The average dry deposition velocity of SO₂ was found to be 0.4 cm s⁻¹, about 30% lower than predicted by standard parameterizations. The yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation was found to be near unity. The mission averages indicate that approximately 57% of the SO₂ in the MBL is lost to aerosols, 27% is subject to dry deposition, 7% is mixed into the BuL, and 10% is oxidized by OH.     

Optimal tuning of a GCM using modern and glacial constraints

In climate models, many parameters used to resolve subgrid scale processes can be adjusted through a tuning exercise to fit the model??s output to target climatologies. We present an objective tuning of a low resolution Atmosphere?COcean General Circulation Model (GCM) called FAMOUS where ten model parameters are varied together using a Latin hypercube sampling method to create an ensemble of 100 models. The target of the tuning consists of a wide range of modern climate diagnostics and also includes glacial tropical sea surface temperature. The ensemble of models created is compared to the target using an Arcsin Mielke score. We investigate how the tuning method used and the addition of glacial constraints impact on the present day and glacial climates of the chosen models. Rather than selecting a single configuration which optimises the metric in all the diagnostics, we obtain a subset of nine ??good?? models which display great differences in their climate but which, in some sense, are all better than the original configuration. In those simulations, the global temperature response to last glacial maximum forcings is enhanced compared to the control simulation and the glacial Atlantic Ocean circulation is more in agreement with observations. Our study demonstrates that selecting a single ??optimal?? configuration, relying only on present day constraints may lead to misrepresenting climates different to that of today.