From regional- to local-scale seismic hazard assessment: examples from Southern Spain

An approach that relates results from a regional seismic hazard assessment study with local-scale site-effect characterizations in an area of low-to-moderate seismic activity such as Andalusia (southern Spain), is presented. Results of a previous probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Andalusia on rock conditions are disaggregated to infer hazard controlling earthquakes for different target motions. A collection of controlling magnitude-distance pairs and the corresponding site-specific response spectra at main capital cities of the region are obtained. These spectra are first-order approximations to expected seismic actions required in local earthquake risk assessments. In addition, results of independent, local-scale studies developed in Almeria City (SE Andalusia) are used to derive an updated seismic zonation of the city. These include predominant soil period estimates and shear-wave velocity profiles at different locations. If a local seismic risk assessment study or an earthquake-resistant structural design is to be developed, it may be recommended the use of different seismic actions on sites characterized by distinct response to seismic shaking (as derived from the seismic zonation). The seismic action related to worst-case scenarios may be modeled through a hazard-consistent response spectrum, obtained by hazard disaggregation at the spectral acceleration with period matching the prevailing resonant period of the target site or structure.     

Testing the sensitivity of geomorphic indices in areas of low-rate active folding (eastern Betic Cordillera, Spain)

Active deformation structures have an incidence in topography that can be quantified by using geomorphic indices. Most of these indices have been checked in faulted regions with high-deformation rates. The application of several geomorphic indices (hypsometric curve analysis, normalized stream-length gradient, and valley width-to-valley height ratio) to the drainage network of the southern limb of the Sierra de Las Estancias antiform (Internal Zones, eastern Betic Cordillera), where low-rate active folding has been recognized, allows us to investigate the suitability of these indices to identify active structures in such a scenario. Hypsometric curves clearly identify regions with recent uplift and young topography, but they do not provide any constraint on the location of active folds. Local valley width-to-valley height index variations have been detected just coinciding whit the position of ENE–WSW active folds. Normalized stream-length gradient index serves to locate active folds in areas of hard rock substratum, but not in those areas with soft sediments (Neogene-Quaternary sedimentary basins). This is most likely due to the fact that in the basins erosion is much more intense than in the hard rock sectors. In view of these results, we consider that geomorphic indices constitute a valuable tool for identifying sectors affected by low-rate uplift related to active folding, with the best results obtained in hard rock areas.     

Representivity of incompletely sampled fall deposits in estimating eruption source parameters: a test using the 12–13 January 2011 lava fountain deposit from Mt. Etna volcano,Italy

The Southeast Crater (SEC) of Mt. Etna, Italy, is renowned for its high activity, mainly long-lived eruptions consisting of sequences of individual paroxysmal episodes which have produced more than 150 eruptive events since 1998. Each episode typically forms eruption columns followed by tephra fallout over distances of up to about 100 km from the vent. One of the last sequences consisted of 25 lava fountaining events, which took place between January 2011 and April 2012 from a pit-vent on the eastern flank of the SEC and built a new scoria cone renamed New Southeast Crater. The first episode on 12–13 January 2011 produced tephra fallout which was unusually dispersed toward to the South extending out over the Mediterranean Sea. The southerly deposition of tephra permitted an extensive survey at distances between ~1 and ~100 km, providing an excellent characterization of the tephra deposit. Here, we document the stratigraphy of the 12–13 January fallout deposit, draw its dispersal, and reconstruct its isopleth map. These data are then used to estimate the main eruption source parameters. The total erupted mass (TEM) was calculated by using four different methodologies which give a mean value of 1.5?±?0.4?×?10⁸ kg. The mass eruption rate (MER) is 2.5?±?0.7?×?10⁴ kg/s using eruption duration of 100 min. The total grain-size (TGS) distribution, peaked at ?3 phi, ranges between ?5 and 5 phi and has a median value of ?1.4 phi. Further, for the eruption column height, we obtained respective values of 6.8–13.8 km by using the method of Carey and Sparks (1986) and 3.4?±?0.3 km by using the methods of Wilson and Walker (1987), Mastin et al. (2009), and Pistolesi et al. (2011) and considering the mean value of MER from the deposit. We also evaluated the uncertainty and reliability of TEM and TGS for scenarios where the proximal and distal samples are not obtainable. This is achieved by only using a sector spanning the downwind distances between 6 and 23 km. This scenario is typical for Etna when the tephra plume is dispersed eastward, i.e., in the prevailing wind direction. Our results show that, if the analyzed deposit has poorer sample coverage than presented in this study, the TEM (3.4?×?10⁷ kg) is 22 % than the TEM obtained from the whole deposit. The lack of the proximal (<6 km) deposit may cause more significant differences in the TGS estimations.     

The state of water resources in major Mediterranean islands

This work analyses the state of water resources in six Mediterranean islands: Corsica, Crete, Cyprus, Mallorca, Malta and Sicily. The analysis is focused on the prevailing social, economic and hydroclimatological characteristics of these islands in order to identify the main common features affecting water availability, demand and use. A detailed analysis of the state of water resources in all the considered islands has been carried out. A background of current conditions relating to freshwater availability, quality and use has been established. Different strategies to face water scarcity and enhance water quality in theislands have been assessed in a context of climate change which is a common threat. The identification of similar problems for all the islands highlights the importance of strengthening inter-islands co-operation in the field of sustainable water resources management.     

Hydrodynamical simulations of the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect

With detections of the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ) effect induced by galaxy clusters becoming routine, it is crucial to establish accurate theoretical predictions. We use a hydrodynamical N -body code to generate simulated maps, of size 1 deg², of the thermal SZ effect. This is done for three different cosmologies: the currently favoured low-density model with a cosmological constant, a critical-density model and a low-density open model. We stack simulation boxes corresponding to different redshifts in order to include contributions to the Compton y -parameter out to the highest necessary redshifts. Our main results are as follows.
(i) The mean y -distortion is around 4×10⁻⁶ for low-density cosmologies, and 1×10⁻⁶ for critical density. These are below current limits, but not by a wide margin in the former case.
(ii) In low-density cosmologies, the mean y -distortion is contributed across a broad range of redshifts, with the bulk coming from z ≲2 and a tail out to z ∼5. For critical-density models, most of the contribution comes from z <1.
(iii) The number of SZ sources above a given y depends strongly on instrument resolution. For a 1-arcmin beam, there are around 0.1 sources per deg² with y >10⁻⁵ in a critical-density Universe, and around 8 such sources per deg² in low-density models. Low-density models with and without a cosmological constant give very similar results.
(iv) We estimate that the Planck satellite will be able to see of order 25 000 SZ sources if the Universe has a low density, or around 10 000 if it has critical density.     

Polarization models of young stellar objects – II. Linear and circular polarimetry of R Coronae Australis

Near-infrared linear imaging polarimetry of the young stellar objects R CrA and T CrA in the J , H and K n bands, and circular imaging polarimetry in the H band, is presented. The data are modelled with the Clark and McCall scattering model. The R CrA and T CrA system is shown to be a particularly complex scattering environment. In the case of R CrA there is evidence that the wavelength dependence of polarization changes across the nebula. MRN dust grain models do not explain this behaviour. Depolarization by line emission is considered as an alternative explanation. The dust grain properties could also be changing across the nebula.
Although surrounded by reflection nebulosity, there is a region of particularly low polarization surrounding R CrA that is best modelled by the canonical bipolar outflow being truncated by an evacuated spherical cavity surrounding the star. The symmetry axis of the nebula appears inclined by 50° to the plane of the sky.
The H -band circular polarimetry of R CrA clearly shows a quadrupolar structure of positive and negative degrees of circular polarization that reach peak magnitudes of ∼5 per cent within our limited map. It is shown that spherical MRN grains are incapable of producing this circular polarization given the observed linear polarization of the R CrA system. Instead, scattering from aligned non-spherical grains is proposed as the operating mechanism.
T CrA is a more archetypical bipolar reflection nebula, and this object is modelled as a canonical parabolic reflection nebula that lies in the plane of the sky. The wavelength independence of linear polarization in the T CrA reflection nebula suggests that the scattering particles are Rayleigh sized. This is modelled with the MRN interstellar grain size distribution.