Activity maps of multi-source mudslides from the Daunia Apennines (Apulia,southern Italy)

Natural Hazards - Flooding poses a serious public health hazard throughout the world. Flood modeling is an important tool for emergency preparedness and response, but some common methods require a...     

Determination of near-fault impulsive signals with multivariate naïve Bayes method

Natural Hazards - Near-fault ground motions may contain impulse behavior on velocity records. To calculate the probability of occurrence of the impulsive signals, a large dataset is collected from...     

A resampling strategy based on bootstrap to reduce the effect of large blunders in GPS absolute positioning

In the absence of obstacles, a GPS device is generally able to provide continuous and accurate estimates of position, while in urban scenarios buildings can generate multipath and echo-only phenomena that severely affect the continuity and the accuracy of the provided estimates. Receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) techniques are able to reduce the negative consequences of large blunders in urban scenarios, but require both a good redundancy and a low contamination to be effective. In this paper a resampling strategy based on bootstrap is proposed as an alternative to RAIM, in order to estimate accurately position in case of low redundancy and multiple blunders: starting with the pseudorange measurement model, at each epoch the available measurements are bootstrapped—that is random sampled with replacement—and the generated a posteriori empirical distribution is exploited to derive the final position. Compared to standard bootstrap, in this paper the sampling probabilities are not uniform, but vary according to an indicator of the measurement quality. The proposed method has been compared with two different RAIM techniques on a data set collected in critical conditions, resulting in a clear improvement on all considered figures of merit.     

Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+?1 to?+?5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

     

Groundwater response to climate variability in Mediterranean type climate zones with comparisons of California (USA) and Portugal

Hydrogeology Journal - Aquifers are a fundamental source of freshwater, yet they are particularly vulnerable in coastal regions with Mediterranean type climate, due to both climatic and...     

Seismic performance of a reinforced concrete building retrofitted with self-centering shape memory alloy braces

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration - Self-centering earthquake-resistant structures have received increased attention due to their ability to reduce post-earthquake residual...     

Mélanges and other types of block-in-matrix formations in the Cantabrian Zone (Variscan Orogen,northwest Spain): origin and significance

Block-in-matrix formations in the Variscan foreland of Spain (Cantabrian Zone) occur in two different geological settings. The major block-in-matrix formations are mélanges, which appear as carpets beneath or ahead of submarine thrust systems. These mélanges may reach up to kilometric thickness and are mostly composed of broken formations (boudinaged sequences) of late Carboniferous age and scattered ‘exotic’ blocks derived from older Palaeozoic formations. Moreover, the mélanges in the Cantabrian Zone also include subordinate debris flow deposits with a chaotic block-in-matrix fabric (olistostromes). The source of the mélange blocks was the front of advancing nappes, chiefly the upper part of the nappe stacks. Therefore, the Cantabrian mélanges are interpreted as originated through submarine sliding and slumping associated with steep slopes at the orogenic front. The different types of rock bodies of these mélanges may be related to the degree of lithification of the sediments or rocks during slumping. So, broken formations are boudinaged sequences where the boudins or blocks resulted from extensional faults developed in lithified or semilithified limestones and sandstones, whereas the unlithified muddy matrix underwent continuous deformation. The scattered ‘exotic’ blocks ranging in age from early Cambrian to early Carboniferous were incorporated into the mélanges as individual blocks from competent well-lithified formations, originally located in the lower part of the nappe stacks. Although the Cantabrian Zone mélanges include olistostromic intervals, most of the olistostromes of this zone occur in a different geological setting. They are usually intercalated in the normal marine deposits of the Variscan foreland basin and, in contrast to the mélanges, they are mostly related to the margins of carbonate platforms, ahead of moving nappes. Finally, other instances of olistostromes are related to slopes generated by limb rotation of growth folds, which developed on submarine wedge-top successions.     

Flash flood occurrence and magnitude assessment in an alluvial fan context: the October 2011 event in the Southern Apennines

Natural Hazards - This study presents the analysis of flash floods triggered by an extreme rainfall event that occurred on 7 October, 2011, over the Marzano carbonate massif (Southern Apennines)....     

A systematic investigation of cross-validation in GWR model estimation: empirical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations

In geographically weighted regression, one must determine a window size which will be used to subset the data locally. Typically, a cross-validation procedure is used to determine a globally optimal window size. Preliminary investigations indicate that the global cross-validation score is heavily influenced by a small number of observations in the dataset. At present, the ramifications of this behaviour in cross-validation are unknown. The research reported here explores the extent to which individual and groups of observations impact optimal window size determination, and whether one can explain why some points are more influential than others. In addition, we strive to examine the impact neighbourhood specification has on model quality in terms of predictive capabilities and the ability of the method to retrieve spatially varying processes. The analysis is based on several datasets and using simulated data in order to compare and validate results. The results provide some practical guidelines for the use of cross-validation.

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