Remotely sensed estimation of forest canopy density: A comparison of the performance of four methods

In recent years, a number of alternative methods have been proposed to predict forest canopy density from remotely sensed data. To date, however, it remains difficult to decide which method to use, since their relative performance has never been evaluated. In this study the performance of: (1) an artificial neural network, (2) a multiple linear regression, (3) the forest canopy density mapper and (4) a maximum likelihood classification method was compared for prediction of forest canopy density using a Landsat ETM+ image. Comparison of confusion matrices revealed that the regression model performed significantly worse than the three other methods. These results were based on a z-test for comparison of weighted kappa statistics, which is an appropriate statistic for analysis of ranked categories. About 89% of the variance of the observed canopy density was explained by the artificial neural networks, which outperformed the other three methods in this respect. Moreover, the artificial neural networks gave an unbiased prediction, while other methods systematically under or over predicted forest canopy density. The choice of biased method could have a high impact on canopy density inventories.     

Detection of station coordinate discontinuities within the Italian GPS Fiducial Network

The Detection Identification Adaptation (DIA) procedure was applied to the coordinate time-series of some permanent GPS stations belonging to the Italian GPS Fiducial Network (IGFN), of the Italian Space Agency (ASI), to detect discontinuities and to reject outliers. The daily solutions of the stations of Cagliari, Genoa, Medicina, Noto, Turin, Perugia and Venice were computed for the period 1997.0–2003.0 using Bernese GPS software v.4.2. The data were interpolated using a model with a linear term and an annual periodic term. The parameters were estimated by least squares. The DIA procedure was organized to automatically detect discontinuities and outliers. Approximately, 70% of the discontinuities present in the coordinate time-series were identified and their magnitudes were estimated. The identified discontinuities are basically caused by equipment replacement and reference frame changes, but in a few cases the reason is still unknown. With regard to the outliers, roughly 6% of the data were rejected. These data were considered outliers on the base of the level of significance and of the power of the test adopted in this work. Except for the stations of Perugia and Venice, the estimated coordinates agree with ITRF2000 values at the 10 mm level, and the estimated velocities are within a few mm/year of the ITRF2000 values.     

Some economics of ‘dangerous’ climate change: Reflections on the Stern Review

The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change concluded that there can be “no doubt” the economic risks of business-as-usual (BAU) climate change are “very severe” [Stern, 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, London, p. 188]. The total cost of climate change was estimated to be equivalent to a one-off, permanent 5–20% loss in global mean per-capita consumption today. And the marginal damage cost of a tonne of carbon emitted today was estimated to be around $312 [p. 344]. Both of these estimates are higher than most reported in the previous literature. Subsequently, a number of critiques have appeared, arguing that discounting is the principal explanation for this discrepancy. Discounting is important, but in this paper we emphasise that how one approaches the economics of risk and uncertainty, and how one attempts to model the very closely related issue of low-probability/high-damage scenarios (which we connect to the recent discussion of ‘dangerous’ climate change), can matter just as much. We demonstrate these arguments empirically, using the same models applied in the Stern Review. Together, the issues of risk and uncertainty on the one hand, and ‘dangerous’ climate change on the other, raise very strongly questions about the limits of a welfare-economic approach, where the loss of natural capital might be irreversible and impossible to compensate. Thus we also critically reflect on the state-of-the-art in integrated assessment modelling. There will always be an imperative to carry out integrated assessment modelling, bringing together scientific ‘fact’ and value judgement systematically. But we agree with those cautioning against a literal interpretation of current estimates. Ironically, the Stern Review is one of those voices. A fixation with cost-benefit analysis misses the point that arguments for stabilisation should, and are, built on broader foundations.     

Importance of geochemical transformations in determining submarine groundwater discharge-derived trace metal and nutrient fluxes

Seasonal (Spring and Summer 2002) concentrations of dissolved (<0.22 μm) trace metals (Ag, Al, Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb), inorganic nutrients (NO₃, PO₄, Si), and DOC were determined in groundwater samples from 5 wells aligned along a 30 m shore-normal transect in West Neck Bay, Long Island, NY. Results show that significant, systematic changes in groundwater trace metal and nutrient composition occur along the flowpath from land to sea. While conservative mixing between West Neck Bay water and the groundwaters explains the behavior of Si and DOC, non-conservative inputs for Co and Ni were observed (concentration increases of 10- and 2-fold, respectively) and removal of PO₄ and NO₃ (decreases to about half) along the transport pathway. Groundwater-associated chemical fluxes from the aquifer to the embayment calculated for constituents not exhibiting conservative behavior can vary by orders of magnitude depending on sampling location and season (e.g. Co, 3.4 × 10²– 8.2 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹). Using measured values from different wells as being representative of the true groundwater endmember chemical composition also results in calculation of very different fluxes (e.g., Cu, 6.3 × 10³ μmol d⁻¹ (inland, freshwater well) vs. 2.1 × 10⁵ μmol d⁻¹(seaward well, S = 17 ppt)). This study suggests that seasonal variability and chemical changes occurring within the subterranean estuary must be taken into account when determining the groundwater flux of dissolved trace metals and nutrients to the coastal ocean.     

Impact of storm runoff from tropical watersheds on coastal water quality and productivity

Storm runoff in the steep watersheds in Hawaii leads to sediment and freshwater pulses to coastal waters that quickly affect nearshore water quality. This is particularly true in semi-enclosed embayments, such as Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, where water has a relatively long residence time compared to more open coastal areas of the islands. In this paper the authors discuss water quality and productivity in Kaneohe Bay after back-to-back rain events in late November and early December 2003, following a particularly dry summer. The short-term biogeochemical response of coastal waters and the ecosystem to runoff and physical forcing was evaluated through a combination of continuous in situ measurements and adaptive synoptic sampling carried out on a variety of temporal and spatial scales.     

Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing

The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale. It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications.     

Luminescence dating of old (>70 ka) Chinese loess: A comparison of single-aliquot OSL and IRSL techniques

The applicability of two different approaches in the luminescence dating of old (>70 ka) Chinese loess is investigated. Both SAR-OSL ages obtained on 63–90 μm quartz grains and SAR-IRSL ages obtained on 4–11 μm polymineral grains, for samples collected from two sites in the Chinese Loess Plateau (Luochuan and Dongchuan) are presented. The characteristics of the luminescence signals stimulated by blue and infrared light are investigated in terms of dose response and dose recovery, and as a function of age. Additionally, anomalous fading measurements from the 410 nm IRSL emission in polymineral fine-grains are reported. An average value of g_2days amounting to 3% per decade was measured and seems to be independent of site location and age. For the samples from Luochuan, independent age control (pedostratigraphy and palaeomagnetism) is available. At both sites, the SAR-OSL ages are always lower than the SAR-IRSL ages after they have been corrected for anomalous fading. It seems that the quartz-based SAR-OSL ages are accurate for the younger ages, but that they underestimate the true age of deposition for loess that was deposited about 60–70 ka ago. The fading-corrected SAR-IRSL ages are in better agreement with the pedostratigraphic age control (75 and 130 ka) and allow dating beyond the quartz OSL range. Based on our results, we suggest that conventional SAR-OSL and SAR-IRSL protocols at these sites should be restricted to samples of ages not exceeding 40–50  and 100–120 ka, respectively.     

Homogeneity of the Geochemical Reference Material BRP-1 (Paraná Basin Basalt) and Assessment of Minimum Mass

Reference materials (RM) are required for quantitative analyses and their successful use is associated with the degree of homogeneity, and the traceability and confidence limits of the values established by characterisation. During the production of a RM, the chemical characterisation can only commence after it has been demonstrated that the material has the required level of homogeneity. Here we describe the preparation of BRP-1, a proposed geochemical reference material, and the results of the tests to evaluate its degree of homogeneity between and within bottles. BRP-1 is the first of two geochemical RM being produced by Brazilian institutions in collaboration with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the International Association of Geoanalysts (IAG). Two test portions of twenty bottles of BRP-1 were analysed by wavelength dispersive-XRF spectrometry and major, minor and eighteen trace elements were determined. The results show that for most of the investigated elements, the units of BRP-1 were homogeneous at conditions approximately three times more rigorous than those strived for by the test of "sufficient homogeneity". Furthermore, the within bottle homogeneity of BRP-1 was evaluated using small beam (1 mm²) synchrotron radiation XRF spectrometry and, for comparison, the USGS reference materials BCR-2 and GSP-2 were also evaluated. From our data, it has been possible to assign representative minimum masses for some major constituents (1 mg) and for some trace elements (1-13 mg), except Zr in GSP-2, for which test portions of 74 mg are recommended.     

Crustal attenuation in the Southern Andean retroarc (38°–39°30′ S) determined from tectonic and gravimetric studies: The Lonco-Luán asthenospheric anomaly

The western retroarc of the Southern Andes between 38° and 40° S is formed by a NNW-elongated ridge not associated with stacked thrust sheets. On the contrary, during the last 4–3 Ma this ridge was affected by extensional deformation, regional uplift and related folding on a very broad scale. Receiver function analysis shows that the drainage divide area and adjacent retroarc lie over an attenuated crust. Expected crustal thickness at these latitudes is around 38 km, whereas in this part of the retroarc the thickness is less than 32 km. The causes for such attenuation have been linked to a moderate steepening of the subducted Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, which is suggested by a westward shift and narrowing of the magmatic arc during the last 4 to 5 Ma. Gravimetric studies show that the upper plate did not react homogeneously to slab steepening, but ancient sutures and lithospheric discontinuities deeply buried under Mesozoic to Cenozoic sequences in the retroarc were locally reactivated. These processes resulted in an asthenospheric anomaly that correlates at the surface with the area of Pliocene to Quaternary doming, widespread extension and three radial troughs. Two of the troughs have accommodated substantial amounts of extension, but the third was probably aborted at an early stage. Moreover, the presence of an anomalous concentration of calderas and large volcanic centers over the proposed asthenospheric anomaly, and their age distribution, may indicate minor migration of the asthenospheric anomaly between 4 and 2 Ma through the western South American plate.