Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

Using a regional numerical weather prediction model for GNSS positioning over Brazil

The global navigation satellite system (GNSS) can provide centimeter positioning accuracy at low costs. However, in order to obtain the desired high accuracy, it is necessary to use high-quality atmospheric models. We focus on the troposphere, which is an important topic of research in Brazil where the tropospheric characteristics are unique, both spatially and temporally. There are dry regions, which lie mainly in the central part of the country. However, the most interesting area for the investigation of tropospheric models is the wet region which is located in the Amazon forest. This region substantially affects the variability of humidity over other regions of Brazil. It provides a large quantity of water vapor through the humidity convergence zone, especially for the southeast region. The interconnection and large fluxes of water vapor can generate serious deficiencies in tropospheric modeling. The CPTEC/INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies/Brazilian Institute for Space Research) has been providing since July 2012 a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for South America, known as Eta. It has yield excellent results in weather prediction but has not been used in GNSS positioning. This NWP model was evaluated in precise point positioning (PPP) and network-based positioning. Concerning PPP, the best positioning results were obtained for the station SAGA, located in Amazon region. Using the NWP model, the 3D RMS are less than 10 cm for all 24 h of data, whereas the values reach approximately 60 cm for the Hopfield model. For network-based positioning, the best results were obtained mainly when the tropospheric characteristics are critical, in which case an improvement of up to 7.2 % was obtained in 3D RMS using NWP models.     

Integrating Indoor and Outdoor Spaces for Pedestrian Navigation Guidance: A Review

In light of the many improvements within 3D urban modeling and Location‐Based Services, this article provides a timely review of the state‐of‐the‐art on integrating indoor and outdoor spaces in pedestrian navigation guidance aids. With people moving seamlessly between buildings and surrounding areas, navigation guidance tools should extend from merely outdoor or indoor guidance, to provide support in the combined indoor‐outdoor context. This article first examines the challenges and complexities of integrating indoor and outdoor spaces into a single navigation system. Next, by using objective selection criteria, 36 relevant studies were withheld and further reviewed on their specific developments in data model requirements, and algorithmic and context support for integrated IO navigation systems. This review shows that the challenges of dealing with both indoor and outdoor space structures, while taking into account pedestrian's freer use of space, currently complicate the proposition of a unified IO space concept for navigation. However, there are some ongoing developments (e.g. context definitions, algorithmic extensions, increased data availability, growing awareness of pedestrians’ perception during wayfinding) that will help to bring outdoor and indoor spaces closer together in the realm of combined geospatial analysis.     

Convolutive independent component analysis for processing massive datasets: a case study at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

A novel procedure is proposed to analyse continuous seismic signal on hourly scales to have a prompt discrimination among the different sources. Specifically, this approach is applied to a massive dataset recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera during the year 2006 when a swarm of volcano-tectonic earthquakes occurred. The convolutive independent component analysis is adopted to obtain a clear separation among meteo-marine microseism, anthropogenic noise, hydrothermal tremor in the absence of volcano-tectonic activity, whereas in non-stationary conditions a contribution connected to the corner frequency of the earthquakes emerges. A coarse-grained variable to be monitored continuously is introduced, i.e. the frequency associated with the maximum amplitude of the power spectral density of the deconvolutive independent components. That parameter is sensitive to the variation in the frequency bands of interest (e.g. that corresponding to the corner frequencies of volcano-tectonic events) and can be used as marker of the insurgence of seismic activity.

     

Local- and global-scale seismic analyses of historical masonry compounds in San Pio delle Camere (L’Aquila,Italy)

Masonry building aggregates are large parts of the Italian building heritage often designed without respecting seismic criteria. The current seismic Italian code does not foresee a clear calculation method to predict their static nonlinear behaviour. For this reason, in this paper firstly, a simple methodology to forecast the seismic response of masonry aggregates in San Pio delle Camere (L’Aquila, Italy) has been set up starting from the provisions of the Italian Guidelines on Cultural Heritage. The implemented procedure has been calibrated on the results of two FEM structural analysis programs used to investigate three masonry building compounds. As a result, a design chart used to correctly predict the base shear of aggregate masonry units starting from code provisions has been set up. Later on, the large-scale seismic vulnerability and damage appraisal of the inspected historical centre has been done on the basis of a quick methodology, already implemented and experienced by the author in some historical centres of the Campania region. The analysis result was a numerical correlation between vulnerability index and mean damage grade of examined building compounds. In particular, a damage forecast under numerical way has been firstly estimated and then compared with the real one. The post-earthquake scenario has represented an ideal term of comparison for effectively testing the reliability of the employed technique, which should be further extended to other Italian historical centres.

     

Resilience and seismic risk perception at school: a geoethical experiment in Aiello Calabro,southern Italy

The last few years have seen the debate on the geoethics of environmental and climatic protection growing to include resilience as a central idea within this new discipline, which holds many similarities with geography. Resilience analysis often looks at the capacity to re-establish conditions of equilibrium within a system which has been hit by a serious shock, e.g. a natural or man-made disaster. Geoethics works, in tandem with geological analyses and the geography of risk, to inform a population and develop integrated risk management in such a way as to strengthen a community’s resilience. The aim of this work is to study some people’s capacity to overcome what was potentially a disastrous event and, through a process of reconstruction, turn it into an occasion for growth. The experiment, carried out in the primary and middle schools in Aiello Calabro (Calabria, southern Italy), was conducted on the basis of the belief that there is a close relationship between a population’s having a realistic understanding of the risk of such an event, e.g. an earthquake, and high levels of resilience. We also tried to gain an insight into the relationship that may exist between resilience in primary and secondary school children and methods of coping which give an appropriate management of seismic risk. To be more precise, we try to discover whether there is a link between good/appropriate resilience and good/appropriate risk management.

     

皖南晚中生代花岗闪长岩地球化学:成岩成矿制约

皖南地区是铜、钼、金多金属成矿区,成矿与晚中生代花岗闪长岩类关系密切。近十年来,皖南花岗闪长岩的成因仍然存在分歧。本次报道了皖南花岗闪长岩全岩主、微量元素和锆石原位元素数据。皖南花岗闪长岩(Si O2=64.3%~70.8%)为高钾钙碱性、过铝质岩石,具有相似的埃达克岩特征:高Si O2、Sr/Y(17.1)和(La/Yb)N(14.9)比值,低Yb(1.72×10-6)和Y(18.4×10-6)含量。它们也具有较低Al2O3和Cr(3.40×10-6~10.0×10-6)含量、低Mg#(0.34~0.42)和Nb/Ta(9.6~13.3)值,高K2O和Ba(404×10-6)含量,高K2O/Na2O(0.89~1.55)、Th/La(0.27~0.51)和Th/U(2.79~7.49)比值。锆石原位地球化学特征显示其岩浆源区为低温(锆石Ti-in-zircon温度均值674℃)和高氧逸度(lgfO2集中在-21.4~-9.18,均值-16.4;锆石Ce4+/Ce3+平均值276)的陆壳。这些特征说明皖南花岗闪长岩可能起源于较年轻的加厚下地壳的部分熔融,并经历了斜长石、钾长石和铁镁矿物等结晶分异作用。它们可能形成于与古太平洋板块俯冲密切相关的大陆活动边缘弧至弧后拉张构造转换背景。本区大规模Cu、Mo、Au成矿作用与岩浆的高氧逸度密切相关,而锆石Ce4+/Ce3+可作为矿床勘探一个有效的指标。