Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models

A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities.     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Gull-derived trace elements trigger small-scale contamination in a remote Mediterranean nature reserve

The role of a yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis) small colony in conveying trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, THg, V, Zn) was assessed in a Mediterranean nature reserve (Marinello ponds) at various spatial and temporal scales. Trace element concentrations in guano were high and seasonally variable. In contrast, contamination in the ponds was not influenced by season but showed strong spatial variability among ponds, according to the different guano input. Biogenic enrichment factor B confirmed the role of gulls in the release of trace elements through guano subsidies. In addition, comparing trace element pond concentrations to the US NOAA’s SQGs, As, Cu and Ni showed contamination levels associated with possible negative biological effects. Thus, this study reflects the need to take seabirds into account as key factors influencing ecological processes and contamination levels even in remote areas, especially around the Mediterranean, where these birds are abundant but overlooked.     

Untangling the influence of in-lake productivity and terrestrial organic matter flux on 4,250 years of mercury accumulation in Lake Hambre, Southern Chile

There is ongoing debate about the relative influence of aquatic production, flux, and sedimentation of aquatic and terrestrial organic matter on mercury accumulation in lake sediments. In this study, lake sediments spanning the past 4,250 years, were collected from remote, organic-rich Lake Hambre, Patagonia (53° S) and investigated for changes in the accumulation of pre-anthropogenic mercury and organic matter of aquatic and terrestrial origin. Natural mercury accumulation varied by up to a factor of four, comparable to the recent anthropogenic forcing of the mercury cycle (factor 3–5). Hydrogen and Oxygen indices (HI and OI, Rock–Eval©) and nitrogen/carbon ratios of the organic matter, combined with multi-element sediment data, reveal intense changes in aquatic productivity as well as influx of terrestrial organic matter into the lake. Evaluation of the multi-element dataset using Principal Component Analysis shows clear covariation of mercury with other soil-derived elements such as copper and yttrium. This covariance reflects a common transport mechanism, i.e. leaching of trace-element-bearing organic matter complexes from catchment soils. Correlation between changes in aquatic productivity and mercury concentrations occurs in some sections of the record, but we do not suggest they are linked by a direct causal relationship. Mass balance approaches suggest that mercury scavenging and accumulation in this organic-rich lake is controlled by the supply of mercury from catchment soils rather than the amount of organic material produced within the water column. A common controlling mechanism, i.e. changing climate, however, is thought to independently drive variations in both the flux of terrestrial organic matter mercury complexes and aquatic productivity.     

Evaluation of MIVIS Hyperspectral Data for Mapping Soil Degradation in an Upland Ecosystem of Southern Italy

Abstract

This paper describes the first stage of an experiment aiming to evaluate the potential and limitations of MIVIS data for mapping the degradational state of soils in a sub‐scene of a southern Apennines study area (Italy). After radiometric rectification of the image data and the collection of a field/laboratory spectral library, linear spectral mixture modelling (SMA) was used to decompose image spectra into fractions of spectrally distinct mixing components. Spectral endmember selection was based upon a principal component analysis (PCA) applied to a set of soil spectra, collected from the spectral library. The resulting abundance estimates (fractions) trough SMA were then analysed to identify soil conditions and to obtain an improved measure of dry and green vegetation cover. A map of soil conditions and dry‐green vegetation abundance, based upon MIVIS data was then derived from normalised fractions of soil‐vegetation endmembers obtained from SMA.     

Late-glacial to Holocene transition in northern Spain deduced from land-snail shelly accumulations

Shells of the helicid Cepaea nemoralis were studied using taphonomic, isotopic and morphometric measurements to estimate late glacial–Holocene (~ 12.1–6.3 cal ka BP) environmental conditions in northern Spain. Higher taphonomic alteration among Holocene shells suggests lower sedimentation rates or higher shell-destruction rates than during glacial conditions. Shells preserved the aragonitic composition despite differing degree of skeleton damage. Shell δ¹³C values were ? 10.3 ± 1.1‰, ? 8.2 ± 2.3‰, and ? 7.3 ± 1.6‰ for modern, Holocene and late-glacial individuals, respectively. Higher δ¹³C values during the late-glacial and some Holocene periods imply higher water stress of C₃ plants and/or higher limestone contribution than today. Intrashell δ¹³C values were higher during juvenile stages suggesting higher limestone ingestion to promote shell growth. Shell δ¹⁸O values were ? 1.1 ± 0.7‰, ? 0.9 ± 0.8‰ and ? 0.1 ± 0.7‰ for modern, Holocene and late-glacial specimens, respectively. A snail flux-balance model suggests that during ~ 12.1 ? 10.9 cal ka BP conditions were drier and became wetter at ~ 8.4 ? 6.3 cal ka BP and today. Intrashell δ¹⁸O profiles reveal that glacial individuals experienced more extreme seasonality than interglacial shells, despite possible larger hibernation periods. Shell size correlated positively with δ¹⁸O values, suggesting that growth rates and ultimate adult size of C. nemoralis may respond to climate fluctuation in northern Spain.     

Use of LIDAR in landslide investigations: a review

This paper presents a short history of the appraisal of laser scanner technologies in geosciences used for imaging relief by high-resolution digital elevation models (HRDEMs) or 3D models. A general overview of light detection and ranging (LIDAR) techniques applied to landslides is given, followed by a review of different applications of LIDAR for landslide, rockfall and debris-flow. These applications are classified as: (1) Detection and characterization of mass movements; (2) Hazard assessment and susceptibility mapping; (3) Modelling; (4) Monitoring. This review emphasizes how LIDAR-derived HRDEMs can be used to investigate any type of landslides. It is clear that such HRDEMs are not yet a common tool for landslides investigations, but this technique has opened new domains of applications that still have to be developed.     

The geography of multiple scarcities: Urban development and water problems in Lima,Peru

The paper discusses the contradictory evolution of water services and the politicised nature of water scarcity in Lima, the capital of Peru. It initially claims that water scarcity cannot be understood as an isolated phenomenon, but it is inserted in a wider multiplicity of scarcities that characterise contemporary urban development. The naturalisation of scarcity in the official policy discourse is then criticised for its tendency to overlook interconnected mechanisms of political differentiation and socioeconomic exploitation that influence the allocation and use of water. Against such reductionist readings, the analysis employs a non-essentialist interpretation of multiple scarcities related to water and emphasises the need to address the totality of the experience of scarcity. Based on qualitative fieldwork, which explored recent institutional reforms and the daily struggle for water in the periphery of Lima, three fundamental reasons were identified for the persistence of water scarcity: first, the expansion of water problems as a result of the poor quality of housing and the discriminatory practices against low-income residents; second, the modest improvements in water services provided by public investment programmes, which have primarily aimed to answer political and electoral demands of the ruling party; and third, the technocratic basis of new management approaches and the systematic exclusion of grassroots communities from the decision-making process. Genuine responses to the mounting water problems of Lima require a more critical appreciation of the production of circumstantial abundances and totalising scarcities in the city.     

Magnetic and structural study of the Eaux-Chaudes intrusion: understanding the Variscan deformation in the Western Axial Zone (Pyrenees)

The present study provides new magnetic and microstructural data for the Eaux-Chaudes granodioritic massif (Western Axial Zone, Pyrenees) and contributes to the understanding of its geometry, internal structure and emplacement mechanism. Moreover, the geological cross-sections and field data allow to reconstruct the evolution of the whole area from Variscan to Alpine times and to integrate the emplacement of the igneous body in the context of the Variscan orogeny. The Eaux-Chaudes pluton (301?±?9?Ma) is mainly composed by granodiorite, describing a normal compositional zoning and an approximately concentric arrangement that is consistent with the zonation of the low-field magnetic susceptibility. Magnetic foliation is subhorizontal in the inner part of the intrusion and becomes parallel to the petrographical contacts along pluton margins, roughly describing the geometry of the intrusion. Magnetic lineations are dominantly subhorizontal, with E–W to ENE–WSW directional maximum. The general parallelism between Variscan structures of the host rock and the geometry and magmatic fabric of the intrusion reveals a late syn-Variscan emplacement. The tectonic regime registered during magma emplacement is in agreement with an N–S shortening and an E–W stretching direction, consistent with the transpressive regime deduced for other Pyrenean intrusions. Alpine overprint produced a slight tilting in the southern part of the intrusion, but it can be considered that the original Variscan structure is basically unchanged.     

The study of hydrodynamic behaviour of a complex karst system under low-flow conditions using natural and artificial tracers (the catchment of the Unica River,SW Slovenia)

In this study a multi-tracer test with fluorescent tracers was combined with time series analyses of natural tracers to characterize the dynamics of the solute transport through different recharge pathways and to study hydraulic behaviour of a binary karst system under low-flow conditions. Fluorescent tracer testing included the introduction of uranine, amidorhodamine G, or naphthionate at three injection points. Sampling and monitoring took place at two karst springs (Malenščica, Unica) and at two underground rivers (Pivka, Rak) recharging the Unica River at the Polje of Planina, SW Slovenia. Other monitored parameters included precipitation, spring or underground river discharge, water temperature, and electrical conductivity. Water samples were collected and analyzed for total organic carbon, Mg²⁺, SO₄ ²⁻, and NO₃ ⁻ in the laboratory. In the study area, results of the tracer test suggest that contaminant transport in karst may be retarded for several weeks during low-flow conditions followed by increases in contaminant concentrations after subsequent rainfall events. Based on interpretation of tracer concentration breakthrough curves, low apparent dominant flow velocities (i.e., between 5.8 and 22.8 m/h through the well developed karst conduits, and 3.6 m/h through the prevailing vadose zone with a dominant influence of a diffuse recharge) were obtained. Together with analyses of hydro-chemographs the artificial tracing identified different origins of water recharging the studied aquifer. During prolonged low-water conditions the Malenščica spring is mainly recharged from the karst aquifer and the Unica spring by the sinking Pivka River. After more intensive rainfall events allogenic recharge from Cerknica prevails in the Malenščica spring, while the Unica spring drains mainly the allogenic water from the Pivka Valley. These findings of alternating hydraulic connections and drainage areas due to respective hydrological conditions are important and should be considered when monitoring water quality, implementing groundwater protection measures, and optimizing future water exploitation.