Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations

Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the “recharge oscillator” paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.     

Catchment storage and residence time in a periodically irrigated watershed

Understanding anthropogenic impacts on water storage and water flow pathways in catchments is an ongoing challenge in hydrology. Here, we study the dynamics of subsurface storage and residence time of water in a catchment in Berkeley, California, that is within a regional park but contains diverse land use within its perimeter, including a periodically irrigated golf course. Our study combines several isotopic tracers with water budget data to examine sources of water in a stream draining the site. Irrigation water, applied to a small area of the watershed, is a minor component of the water budget. However, geochemical tracers reveal that irrigation water is a significant fraction of stream flow downstream of the golf course during baseflow and during precipitation events. Isotopic tracers indicate that the watershed has a preference to release young water for stream flow generation, resulting in contrasting tritium ages for stream water and groundwater of 1.3 ± 0.5 year and 8.2 ± 1.7 year, respectively. We determined that the older water is a very small component (0.7%) of the stream water in the tail of an assumed exponential distribution. We used the seasonal variation of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water over two water years to explain the damping of the isotopic signature of stream water, which yields information about the catchment's response to the input signal. The methods described here may be applicable to other urban or suburban headwater catchments in areas with a component of non-natural recharge from, for example, leaky infrastructure, storm water routing or dry season irrigation.     

Fragility functions and floor spectra of RC masonry infilled frames: influence of mechanical properties of masonry infills

A wide number of experimental studies conducted in latest years pointed out the high influence of the mechanical properties of masonry units and mortar bed joints on lateral strength and stiffness of masonry panels. This feature significantly modifies the global response of infilled frames under seismic actions as well as the local interaction phenomena. Despite a wide investigation on the influence of the infills on global behaviour of reinforced concrete (RC) frames has already been provided, different features characterizing the seismic performances of buildings suggest the need of accurately evaluating local interaction phenomena as well as the influence of the panel on specific and relevant aspects, as the accelerations transferred to non-structural components. This study provides a parametrical analysis of the influence of shear strength and elastic modulus of masonry infills on the seismic behaviour of RC frames originally designed for gravity loads. Regular buildings with different height were analysed using the Incremental Dynamic Analysis in order to provide fragility curves, investigate on the collapse mechanisms and define the floor spectra depending on the properties of the infills. Results obtained pointed out the high influence of the considered parameters on the fragility of existing RC frames, often characterized by inadequate transversal reinforcement of columns, which may lead to brittle failure due to the interaction with the infills. Floor response spectra are also significantly affected by the influence of masonry infills both in terms of shape and maximum spectral accelerations. Lastly, on the basis of the observed failure mechanisms, a parameter defining the ductility of the frames depending on the properties of the infills was also provided (Capacity Design Factor). The correlation between the mechanical properties of the infills and this parameter suggests its reliability in the simplified vulnerability analysis of existing buildings as well as for the design of new buildings.     

Automatic Recognition of Landslides Based on Neural Network Analysis of Seismic Signals: An Application to the Monitoring of Stromboli Volcano (Southern Italy)

In the last 9 years, the amount and the quality of geophysical and volcanological observations of Stromboli's' activity have undergone a marked increase. This new information highlighted that the landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank are tightly linked to the volcanic activity. Actually, at the beginning of the December 28, 2002, effusive eruption, the seismic monitoring network was less dense than now, and therefore it is not known if there was an increase in the landslide rate before the eruption. Despite this, it is known that a big landslide occurred 2 days after the beginning of the eruption which caused a tsunami (December 30, 2002). More recently, the effusive eruption in February 2007 was preceded by an increase in landslides on the Sciara del Fuoco flank, which were recorded by the seismological monitoring system that had been improved after the 2002–2003 crisis. These episodes led us to believe that monitoring the Sciara del Fuoco flank instability is an important topic, and that landslides might be significant short-term precursors of effusive eruptions at the Stromboli volcano. To automatically detect landslide signals, we have developed a specialized neural algorithm. This can distinguish between landslides and the other types of seismic signals usually recorded at the Stromboli volcano (i.e., explosion quakes and volcanic tremor). The discrimination results show an average performance of 98.67 %. According to the experience of the crisis of 2007, to identify changes that can be considered as precursors of effusive eruptions, we set up an automatic decision-making method based on the neural network responses. This method can operate on a continuous data stream. It calculates a landslide percentage index (LPI) that depends on the number of records that are classified by the net as landslides over a given time interval. We tested the method on February 27, 2007, including the beginning of the effusive phase. The index showed an increase as early as at 09:00 UTC on that day and reached its maximum value (100 %) at 12:00, about 40 min before the onset of the eruption. After the beginning of the effusive phase, the index remains high due to the blocks that roll down along the slope from the front of the lava flow. On the basis of these tests, we propose a decision-making method that is able to recognize a trend in the LPI similar to that of 2007 eruption, allowing the identification of precursors of effusive phases at the Stromboli volcano.     

Opportunities for X-ray remote sensing at Mercury

Mercury is the little known innermost terrestrial planet. A number of significant questions remain unanswered. We describe areas in which a compact imaging X-ray spectrometer could make a valuable contribution. It can provide high quality spectroscopic analysis of Mercury, using the fluorescence technique. A solar monitor is required to provide the calibration of the illumination necessary to produce a global map of absolute Hermean elemental abundances. In the case of Mercury studies of the surface and the magnetosphere form a single linked problem. The intense level of the radiation observed by Mariner 10 suggests that the auroral zone, where the energetic radiation interacts with the surface, is a potential intense source of X-rays. We estimate the fluxes. The solar wind may also contribute to X-ray generation, if it can reach the surface during highly excited periods. We describe briefly the instrument characteristics that could produce these observations.     

Carbon dioxide photoelectron energy peaks at Mars

The ELectron Spectrometer (ELS) from the Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms (ASPERA-3) flown on the Mars Express spacecraft has an 8% energy resolution, combined with the capability to oversample the martian electron distribution. This makes possible the resolution and identification of electrons generated as a result of the He 304 Å ionization of CO₂ at the martian exobase on the dayside of the planet. Ionospheric photoelectrons were observed during almost every pass into the ionosphere and CO₂ photoelectron peaks were identified near the terminator. Atmospherically generated CO₂ photoelectrons are also observed at 10,000 km altitude in the martian tail near the inner magnetospheric boundary. Observations over a wide range of spacecraft orbits showed a consistent presence of photoelectrons at locations along the inner magnetospheric boundary and in the ionosphere, from an altitude of 250 to 10,000 km.     

Plasma intrusion above Mars crustal fields—Mars Express ASPERA-3 observations

Using data of the ASPERA-3 instrument on board the European Mars Express spacecraft we investigate the effect of the martian crustal fields on electrons intruding from the magnetosheath. For the crustal field strength we use published data obtained by the Mars Global Surveyor MAG/ER instrument for a fixed altitude of 400 km. We use statistics on 13 months of 80-100 eV electron observations to show that the electron intrusion altitude determined by a probability measure is approximately linearly dependent on the total field strength at 400 km altitude. We show that on the dayside the mean electron intrusion altitude describes the location of the Magnetic Pile-Up Boundary (MPB) such that we can quantify the effect of the crustal fields on the MPB. On the nightside we quantify the shielding of precipitating electrons by the crustal fields.