Community-based responses to climate hazards: typology and global analysis

Climatic Change - The severity and frequency of climate change hazards are increasing around the world. Because the impacts are most acutely felt in local communities, it is critical to improve...     

Temporal variation of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

A total of 269 tropical storms and hurricanes originated in the North Atlantic basin from 1960–1989. Of these, 76 made landfall on the continental United states. This study divides the 76 tropical storms into their month of formation. Seasonal shifts in the principal areas of tropical cyclone formation over the Atlantic basin have been recognized for many decades. The results of the study suggest that the early and late season tropical cyclones develop in areas which are first affected by the position of the sun, resulting in an increase in water temperatures. These cyclones normally make landfall along the Gulf Coast and usually are of low intensity. Formation areas shift eastward in mid-summer with a slight increase in intensity. By late August and early September, the formation areas have extended to the Cape Verde Islands. These storms tend to strike the east coast of the US and are normally more intense. By the end of the hurricane season, the primary formation area has shifted back to the Gulf of Mexico, with low intensity storms affecting the Gulf Coast.     

Spinor: Visible and Infrared Spectro-Polarimetry at the National Solar Observatory

The Spectro-Polarimeter for Infrared and Optical Regions (SPINOR) is a new spectro-polarimeter that will serve as a facility instrument for the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory. This instrument is capable of achromatic polarimetry over a very broad range of wavelengths, from 430 to 1600 nm, allowing for the simultaneous observation of several visible and infrared spectral regions with full Stokes polarimetry. Another key feature of the design is its flexibility to observe virtually any combination of spectral lines, limited only by practical considerations (e.g., the number of detectors available, space on the optical bench, etc.). Visiting Astronomers, National Solar Observatory, operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. (AURA), under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.     

The coronal disturbance of 1972, August 12

Using the observed data for metric and hectometric type III radio bursts, the dependence of burst characteristics on the solar longitude has been examined over a wide frequency range. It is found that there exists an east-west asymmetry for the extension of metric type III bursts into hectometric wavelength range. In particular, hectometric bursts are rarely observed for solar flares associated with metric bursts eastward solar longitude 60°E. Furthermore, for eastern longitudes, the low frequency radio observations show a large dispersion in drift time interval.     

The Creation of a National Agricultural Land Use Dataset: Combining Pycnophylactic Interpolation with Dasymetric Mapping Techniques

Agricultural Census data is summarised over spatially coarse reporting units for reasons of farm confidentiality. This is problematic for research at a local level. This article describes an approach combining dasymetric and volume preserving techniques to create a national land use dataset at 1 km² resolution. The results for an English county are compared with contemporaneous aggregated habitat data. The results show that the accurate estimates of local agricultural land use (Arable and Grass) patterns can be estimated when individual 1 km squares are combined into blocks of > 9 squares, thereby providing local estimates of agricultural land use. This in turn allows more detailed modelling of land uses related to specific livestock and cropping activities. The dataset created by this work has been subject to extensive external validation through its incorporation into a number of other national models: nitrate leaching (e.g. MAGPIE, NEAP‐N), waste, and pathogen modelling related to agricultural activity.     

Petroleum geoscience in Norden - exploration, production and organization

Offshore exploration in Norway and Denmark-in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea-has involved drilling about 850 wildcat wells, resulting in about 300 oil and gas finds, of which 84 are fields with production. The recoverable resources of all these finds total about 65 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Almost all these hydrocarbons come from a Jurassic source and the main reservoirs and traps are Jurassic sandstones in fault blocks and Paleocene sandstones or Cretaceous chalks in gentle domes. The article describes four major fields-Ekofisk, Gullfaks, Ormen Lange and SnФhvitto illustrate some of the many challenges in developing and producing the hydrocarbons.
Elsewhere in Norden, there has been much less exploration. Drilling results have mostly been negative in mainland Sweden, onshore Denmark, onshore Svalbard and on- and offshore West Greenland. Minor oil finds have been made in Palaeozoic rocks in the Baltic Sea. The first wells have recently been drilled off the Faroe Islands, resulting in one discovery. No drilling has taken place on- or offshore East Greenland.
As a result of the hydrocarbon activities in Norway and Denmark, petroleum geoscience there has flourished, with 2000 geoscientists currently employed in the industry, many technical innovations made, a wealth of publically available information and a great increase in the understanding of the geology.     

Advances in Numerical Modeling of Astrophysical and Space Plasmas

Advances in the simulation of astrophysical and cosmic plasmas are the direct result of advances in computational capabilities, today consisting of new techniques such as multilevel concurrent simulation, multi-teraflop computational platforms and experimental facilities for producing and diagnosing plasmas under extreme conditions for the benchmarking of simulations. Examples of these are the treatment of mesoscalic plasma and the scaling to astrophysical and cosmic dimensions and the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative whose goal is to construct petaflop (10¹⁵ floating operations per second) computers, and pulsed power and laser inertial confinement plasmas where megajoules of energy are delivered to highly-diagnosed plasmas. This paper concentrates on the achievements to date in simulating and experimentally producing plasmas scaled to both astrophysical and cosmic plasma dimensions. A previous paper (Part I, Peratt, 1997) outlines the algorithms and computational growth.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Waveform Shaping of Sonar Transducers for Improving the Vertical Resolution in Sub-bottom Sediments Profiling

Vertical resolution is of fundamental importance in sonar exploration and is directly related to the duration of the acoustic pulse generated by the transducer. The shorter the radiated pulse, the higher the vertical resolution. Many sub-bottom profiling sonar systems use piezoelectric transducers because they are reversible and well understood. Piezoelectric projectors are normally resonant transducers, which are intrinsically narrowband. A piezoelectric transducer is usually driven by a tone-burst. However, it is possible to use Fourier techniques to find a pre-compensated electrical driving function so that the transducer radiates a prescribed wider band acoustic waveform. This technique can be applied to synthesize zero-phase cosine-magnitude, Gaussian, and bionic pulses, with a conventional sandwich transducer. Zero-phase cosine-magnitude waveforms provide minimum length pulses (and therefore maximum resolution) within a prescribed frequency band.The aim of this paper is to illustrate the synthesis of wideband acoustic pulses using an underwater piezoelectric projector. The conventional acoustic waveform radiated when a Tonpiltz transducer is transiently excited using a “click” and allows its frequency response function to be measured. This function is used to design the electrical signal which then drives the transducer so that it radiates the shortest pulse compatible with its mechanical response. The significant resolution enhancement of the waveform shaping process is illustrated by its application to a sediment wedge model.