Climate and climate change in western canada as simulated by the Canadian regional climate model

Abstract

A þrst climate simulation performed with the novel Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) is presented. The CRCM is based on fully elastic non‐hydrostatic þeld equations, which are solved with an efþcient semi‐implicit semi‐Lagrangian (SISL) marching algorithm, and on the parametrization package of subgrid‐scale physical effects of the second‐generation Canadian Global Climate Model (GCMII). Two 5‐year integrations of the CRCM nested with GCMII simulated data as lateral boundary conditions are made for conditions corresponding to current and doubled CO₂ scenarios. For these simulations the CRCM used a grid size of 45 km on a polar‐stereographic projection, 20 scaled‐height levels and a time step of 15 min; the nesting GCMII has a spectral truncation of T32, 10 hybrid‐pressure levels and a time step of 20 min. These simulations serve to document: (1) the suitability of the SISL numerical scheme for regional climate modelling, (2) the use of GCMII physics at much higher resolution than in the nesting model, (3) the ability of the CRCM to add realistic regional‐scale climate information to global model simulations, and (4) the climate of the CRCM compared to that of GCMII under two greenhouse gases (GHG) scenarios.     

Edge-to-Stem Variability in Wet-Canopy Evaporation From an Urban Tree Row

Evaporation from wet-canopy (\(E_\mathrm{C}\)) and stem (\(E_\mathrm{S}\)) surfaces during rainfall represents a significant portion of municipal-to-global scale hydrologic cycles. For urban ecosystems, \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) dynamics play valuable roles in stormwater management. Despite this, canopy-interception loss studies typically ignore crown-scale variability in \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and assume (with few indirect data) that \(E_\mathrm{S}\) is generally \({<}2\%\) of total wet-canopy evaporation. We test these common assumptions for the first time with a spatially-distributed network of in-canopy meteorological monitoring and 45 surface temperature sensors in an urban Pinus elliottii tree row to estimate \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and \(E_\mathrm{S}\) under the assumption that crown surfaces behave as “wet bulbs”. From December 2015 through July 2016, 33 saturated crown periods (195 h of 5-min observations) were isolated from storms for determination of 5-min evaporation rates ranging from negligible to 0.67 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\). Mean \(E_\mathrm{S}\) (0.10 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)) was significantly lower (\(p < 0.01\)) than mean \(E_\mathrm{C}\) (0.16 \(\hbox {mm h}^{-1}\)). But, \(E_\mathrm{S}\) values often equalled \(E_\mathrm{C}\) and, when scaled to trunk area using terrestrial lidar, accounted for 8–13% (inter-quartile range) of total wet-crown evaporation (\(E_\mathrm{S}+E_\mathrm{C}\) scaled to surface area). \(E_\mathrm{S}\) contributions to total wet-crown evaporation maximized at 33%, showing a general underestimate (by 2–17 times) of this quantity in the literature. Moreover, results suggest wet-crown evaporation from urban tree rows can be adequately estimated by simply assuming saturated tree surfaces behave as wet bulbs, avoiding problematic assumptions associated with other physically-based methods.     

Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics in central-eastern Brazil: insights from a ~35k cal a bp peat record in the Cerrado biome

The late Quaternary evolution of central-eastern Brazil has been under-researched. Questions remain as to the origin of the Cerrado, a highly endangered biome, and other types of vegetation, such as the Capões – small vegetation islands of semi-deciduous and mountain forests. We investigated the factors that influenced the expansion and contraction of the Cerrado and Capões during the late Quaternary (last ~35 ka), using a multi-proxy approach: stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), geochemistry, pollen and multivariate statistics derived from a peat core (Pinheiro mire, Serra do Espinhaço Meridional). Five major shifts in precipitation, temperature, vegetation and landscape stability occurred at different timescales. Our study revealed that changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) seem to have been coeval with these shifts: from the Late Glacial Maximum to mid-Holocene the SACZ remained near (~29.6 to ~16.5k cal a bp ) and over (~16.5 to ~6.1 k cal a bp ) the study area, providing humidity to the region. This challenges previous research which suggested that climate was drier for this time period. At present, the Capões are likely to be a remnant of a more humid climate; meanwhile, the Cerrado biome seems to have stablished in the late Holocene, after ~3.1 k cal a bp .     

Nonlinear adaptive control of an underwater towed vehicle

This paper addresses the problem of simultaneous depth tracking and attitude control of an underwater towed vehicle. The system proposed uses a two-stage towing arrangement that includes a long primary cable, a gravitic depressor, and a secondary cable. The towfish motion induced by wave driven disturbances in both the vertical and horizontal planes is described using an empirical model of the depressor motion and a spring-damper model of the secondary cable. A nonlinear, Lyapunov-based, adaptive output feedback control law is designed and shown to regulate pitch, yaw, and depth tracking errors to zero. The controller is designed to operate in the presence of plant parameter uncertainty. When subjected to bounded external disturbances, the tracking errors converge to a neighbourhood of the origin that can be made arbitrarily small. In the implementation proposed, a nonlinear observer is used to estimate the linear velocities used by the controller thus dispensing with the need for costly sensor suites. The results obtained with computer simulations show that the controlled system exhibits good performance about different operating conditions when subjected to sea-wave driven disturbances and in the presence of sensor noise. The system holds promise for application in oceanographic missions that require depth tracking or bottom-following combined with precise vehicle attitude control.     

The Ushnus in the astronomy of the Inca culture

Inferences are made about the relationship that existed between the Ushnus, pyramid-shaped, terraced structures used by the Incas in the most important ceremonies of the Tawantinsuyo, and Inka Astronomy. We draw attention to Ayni, Kawsaypacha, Duality, and Tinkuy principles, multidimensional codes of conduct and wisdom that are at the root of the Andean cosmovision and on their perception of the world and the Cosmos. These principles, examined as postulates, allow to elaborate axiomatic propositions to identify the Ushnus with ancient Astronomy practices. In a complementary statement, starting from a bi-conditional proposition, we may infer through reciprocal corollaries that the Inka earliest roots to a holistic learning and educational ambient in the Tawantinsuyo was not elitist, instead it was based on a epistemological construct that differs from the corresponding Western educational ambients. An epistemological and cognitive approach allows to identify an ancient elaborate process of knowledge construction, based on the four fundamental principles, corresponding to different levels of assimilation and comprehension. As a complementary aspect, we identify some of the most preserved Ushnus of the Inka “Empire.” Then we complement this contribution with a broader interpretation for the Ushnus.     

Une méthode globale d'estimation des températures des réservoirs alimentant les sources thermales. Exemple du Massif Central Français

A chemical model based on the equilibrium of water with quartz, albite, adularia, calcite, kaolinite or illite, and chlorite can explain the chemical composition of the main groups of hot springs in Massif Central. Temperature is the principal variable for determining this composition. Model temperatures generally agree with those given by classical cation geothermometers (t ? 135–150° C for Vichy. La Bourboule. Evaux and Châteauneuf; t ? 175–180° C for Chaudes Aigues and Saint Nectaire). The model fails to represent the composition of Mont Dore waters: the high temperatures given by classical geothermometers are considered doubtful.     

Dynamics of phytoplankton associations in three reservoirs in northeastern Brazil assessed using Reynolds’ theory

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the influence of seasonality on the behavior of phytoplankton associations in eutrophic reservoirs with different depths in northeastern Brazil. Five collections were carried out at each of the reservoirs at two depths (0.1 m and near the sediment) at three-month intervals in each season (dry and rainy). The phytoplankton samples were preserved in Lugol's solution and quantified under an inverted microscope for the determination of density values, which were subsequently converted to biomass values based on cellular biovolume and classified in phytoplankton associations. The following abiotic variables were analyzed: water temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, turbidity, water transparency, total phosphorus, total dissolved phosphorus, orthophosphate and total nitrogen. The data were investigated using canonical correspondence analysis. The influence of seasonality on the dynamics of the phytoplankton community was lesser in the deeper reservoirs. Depth affected the behavior of the algal associations. Variation in light availability was a determinant of changes in the phytoplankton structure. Urosolenia and Anabaena associations were more abundant in shallow ecosystems with a larger eutrophic zone, whereas the Microcystis association was more related to deep ecosystems with adequate availability of nutrients. The distribution of Cyclotella, Geitlerinema, Planktothrix, Pseudanabaena and Cylindrospermopsis associations was different from that seen in subtropical regions and the substitution of these associations was related to a reduction in the eutrophic zone rather than the mixture zone.