Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”

Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.     

Boundary-layer depth and entrainment zone characterization with a boundary-layer profiler

A technique for determining the height of the convective atmospheric boundary layer (CBL) with a 915 MHz boundary-layer profiler is discussed. The results are compared with CBL heights determined from radiosonde measurements. The profiler provides continuous CBL height measurements with very good time resolution (30 minutes or less), allowing for detailed understanding of the growth and fluctuations of the CBL. In addition, the profiler provides information about the degree of definition of the CBL top and the thickness of the entrainment zone. The measurements discussed were taken during the Rural Oxidants in the Southern Environment II (ROSE II) experiment.     

Impact of prescribed Arctic sea ice thickness in simulations of the present and future climate

This paper describes atmospheric general circulation model climate change experiments in which the Arctic sea-ice thickness is either fixed to 3 m or somewhat more realistically parameterized in order to take into account essentially the spatial variability of Arctic sea-ice thickness, which is, to a first approximation, a function of ice type (perennial or seasonal). It is shown that, both at present and at the end of the twenty-first century (under the SRES-A1B greenhouse gas scenario), the impact of a variable sea-ice thickness compared to a uniform value is essentially limited to the cold seasons and the lower troposphere. However, because first-year ice is scarce in the Central Arctic today, but not under SRES-A1B conditions at the end of the twenty-first century, and because the impact of a sea-ice thickness reduction can be masked by changes of the open water fraction, the spatial and temporal patterns of the effect of sea-ice thinning on the atmosphere differ between the two periods considered. As a consequence, not only the climate simulated at a given period, but also the simulated Arctic climate change over the twenty-first century is affected by the way sea-ice thickness is prescribed.     

Reanalysis of seasonal and interannual variability of Black Sea fields for 1993–2012

A retrospective analysis has been done for the hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea for 1993–2012 with the assimilation of undisturbed monthly average profiles of temperature and salinity that were obtained by using an original procedure of joint processing of satellite altimetry and rare hydrological observations. The accuracy of the reconstructed fields of temperature and salinity of the Black Sea is evaluated by comparison with the data of sounding from the hydrological stations and the Argo floats. A comparative analysis is performed for the integral characteristics of the fields of temperature, salinity, and kinetic energy with the same characteristics of the reanalysis for 1992–2012 that assimilated the average annual profiles of temperature and salinity, surface temperature and altimetry level of the sea after being adjusted with respect to climate seasonal variability. The proposed procedure of the reanalysis execution allows a more precise reconstruction of the interannual variability of temperature and salinity stratification in the main pycnocline. The correlation between the annual and seasonal variability of the eddy of the wind friction tangential stress and the average kinetic energy at the levels is revealed.     

Trends in the solubility of iron,aluminium, manganese and phosphorus in aerosol collected over the Atlantic Ocean

The solubility of iron, aluminium, manganese and phosphorus has been determined in aerosol samples collected between 49°N and 52°S during three cruises conducted in the Atlantic Ocean as part of the European Union funded IRONAGES programme. Solubilities (defined at pH 4.7) determined for Fe and Al in samples of Saharan dust were significantly lower (medians 1.7% and 3.0%, respectively) than the solubilities of these metals in aerosols from other source regions (whole dataset medians 5.2% and 9.0%, respectively). Mn solubility also varied with aerosol source, but the median solubility of Mn in Saharan dust was very similar to the median for the dataset as a whole (55% and 56%, respectively). The observed solubility of aerosol P was ∼ 32%, with P solubility in Saharan aerosol perhaps as low as 10%. Laboratory studies have indicated that aerosol Fe solubility is enhanced by acid processing. No relationship could be found between Fe solubility and the concentrations of acid species (non-seasalt SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻) nor the net acidity of the aerosol, so we are unable to confirm that this process is significant in the atmosphere. In terms of the supply of soluble Fe to oceanic ecosystems on a global scale, the observed higher solubility for Fe in non-Saharan aerosols is probably not significant because the Sahara is easily the dominant source of Fe to the Atlantic. On a smaller scale however, higher solubility for aerosol Fe may alter our understanding of Fe cycling in regions such as the remote Southern Ocean.     

Derivation of density and temperature from the Cassini–Huygens CAPS electron spectrometer

In this paper we present two methods to derive electron fluid parameters from the CAPS–ELS spectrometer on board the Cassini spacecraft currently in orbit around Saturn. In the first part of the paper we give a basic overview of the instrument and describe the challenges inherent in the derivation of density and temperature values using these techniques. We then describe a method to calculate electron moments by integrating the particle distribution function. We also describe a second technique in which we fit the electron energy spectrum with a Gaussian curve and use the peak energy of this curve to derive density and temperature values. We then compare the two methods with particular emphasis on their application to Cassini SOI observations in the saturnian environment and point out the limitations of the two techniques. We will show that results from the two very different methods are in agreement when the physical properties of the environment and of the observed electron populations have been inferred from inspection of the raw data. Finally we will suggest future developments that will remove these limitations.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.     

Sediment storage and release from Himalayan piggyback basins and implications for downstream river morphology and evolution

Piggyback basins developed at the mountain fronts of collisional orogens can act as important, and transient, sediment stores along major river systems. It is not clear, however, how the storage and release of sediment in piggyback basins affects the sediment flux and evolution of downstream river reaches. Here, we investigate the timing and volumes of sediment storage and release in the Dehra Dun, a piggyback basin developed along the Himalayan mountain front in northwestern India. Based on OSL dating, we show evidence for three major phases of aggradation in the dun, bracketed at ca. 41–33 ka, 34–21 ka and 23–10 ka, each accompanied by progradation of sediment fans into the dun. Each of these phases was followed by backfilling and (apparently) rapid fan‐head incision, leading to abandonment of the depositional unit and a basinward shift of the active depocentre. Excavation of dun sediment after the second and third phases of aggradation produced time‐averaged sediment discharges that were ca. 1–2% of the modern suspended‐sediment discharges of the Ganga and Yamuna rivers that traverse the margins of the dun; this sediment was derived from catchment areas that together comprise 1.5% of the drainage area of these rivers. Comparison of the timing of dun storage and release with upstream and downstream records of incision and aggradation in the Ganga show that sediment storage in the dun generally coincides with periods of widespread hinterland aggradation but that late stages of dun aggradation, and especially times of dun sediment excavation, coincide with major periods of sediment export to the Ganga Basin. The dun thus acts to amplify temporal variations in hinterland sediment supply or transport capacity. This conceptual model appears to explain morphological features of other major river systems along the Himalayan front, including the Gandak and Kosi Rivers, and may be important for understanding sediment flux variations in other collisional mountain belts.