Trading more food: Implications for land use,greenhouse gas emissions,and the food system

The volume of agricultural trade increased by more than ten times throughout the past six decades and is likely to continue with high rates in the future. Thereby, it largely affects environment and climate. We analyse future trade scenarios covering the period of 2005–2045 by evaluating economic and environmental effects using the global land-use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”). This is the first trade study using spatially explicit mapping of land use patterns and greenhouse gas emissions. We focus on three scenarios: the reference scenario fixes current trade patterns, the policy scenario follows a historically derived liberalisation pathway, and the liberalisation scenario assumes a path, which ends with full trade liberalisation in 2045.Further trade liberalisation leads to lower global costs of food. Regions with comparative advantages like Latin America for cereals and oil crops and China for livestock products will export more. In contrast, regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia face the highest increases of imports. Deforestation, mainly in Latin America, leads to significant amounts of additional carbon emissions due to trade liberalisation. Non-CO₂ emissions will mostly shift to China due to comparative advantages in livestock production and rising livestock demand in the region. Overall, further trade liberalisation leads to higher economic benefits at the expense of environment and climate, if no other regulations are put in place.     

Investigating dissolution of mechanically activated olivine for carbonation purposes

Mineral carbonation is one of several alternatives for CO₂ sequestration and storage. The reaction rates of appropriate minerals with CO₂, for instance olivine and serpentine with vast resources, are relatively slow in a CO₂ sequestration context and the rates have to be increased to make mineral carbonation a good storage alternative. Increasing the dissolution rate of olivine has been the focus of this paper. Olivine was milled with very high energy intensity using a laboratory planetary mill to investigate the effect of mechanical activation on the Mg extraction potential of olivine in 0.01 M HCl solution at room temperature and pressure. Approximately 30–40% of each sample was dissolved and water samples were taken at the end of each experiment. The pH change was used to calculate time series of the Mg concentrations, which also were compared to the final Mg concentrations in the water samples. Percentage dissolved and the specific reaction rates were estimated from the Mg concentration time series. The measured particle size distributions could not explain the rate constants found, but the specific surface area gave a good trend versus dissolution for samples milled wet and the samples milled with a small addition of water. The samples milled dry had the lowest measured specific surface areas (<4 m²/g), but had the highest rate constants. The crystallinity calculated from X-ray diffractograms, was the material parameter with the best fit for the observed differences in the rate constants. Geochemical modelling of mechanically activated materials indicated that factors describing the changes in the material properties related to the activation must be included. The mechanically activated samples in general reacted faster than predicted by the theoretical models. Mechanical activation as a pre-treatment method was found to enhance the initial specific reaction rates by approximately three orders of magnitude for a sample milled dry for 60 min in a planetary mono mill compared to an unactivated sample. Wet milling in the planetary mill did not produce samples with the same maximum reaction rate as dry milling, but wet milling in general might be easier to implement into a wet carbonation process. Mechanical activation in a planetary mill is likely to consume too much energy for CO₂ sequestration purposes, but the increase in obtained olivine rate constants illustrates a potential for using milling as a pre-treatment method.     

Carbon Cycling and the Coupling Between Proton and Electron Transfer Reactions in Aquatic Sediments in Lake Champlain

We used fine-scale porewater profiles and rate measurements together with a multiple component transport–reaction model to investigate carbon degradation pathways and the coupling between electron and proton transfer reactions in Lake Champlain sediments. We measured porewater profiles of O₂, Mn²⁺, Fe²⁺, HS⁻, pH and pCO₂ at mm resolution by microelectrodes, and profiles of NO₃ ⁻, SO₄ ²⁻, NH₄ ⁺, total inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) at cm resolution using standard wet chemical techniques. In addition, sediment–water fluxes of oxygen, DIC, nitrate, ammonium and N₂ were measured. Rates of gross and net sulfate reduction were also measured in the sediments. It is shown that organic matter (OM) decomposes via six pathways: oxic respiration (35.2%), denitrification (10.4%), MnO₂ reduction (3.6%), FeOOH reduction (9.6%), sulfate reduction (14.9%), and methanogenesis (26.4%). In the lake sediments, about half of the benthic O₂ flux is used for aerobic respiration, and the rest is used for the regeneration of other electron acceptors produced during the above diagenetic reactions. There is a strong coupling between O₂ usage and Mn²⁺ oxidation. MnO₂ is also an important player in Fe and S cycles and in pH and TA balance. Although nitrate concentrations in the overlying water were low, denitrification becomes a quantitatively important pathway for OM decomposition due to the oxidation of NH₄ ⁺ to NO₃ ⁻. Finally, despite its low concentration in freshwater, sulfate is an important electron acceptor due to its high efficiency of internal cycling. This paper also discusses quantitatively the relationship between redox reactions and the porewater pH values. It is demonstrated here that pH and pCO₂ are sensitive variables that reflect various oxidation and precipitation reactions in porewater, while DIC and TA profiles provide effective constraints on the rates of various diagenetic reactions.     

Using Stable Isotope Mixing in a Great Lakes Coastal Tributary to Determine Food Web Linkages in Young Fishes

We characterized stable isotope mixing along a river-Great Lake transition zone in the St. Louis River, an important fish nursery in western Lake Superior, and used it to identify food web linkages supporting young fish production. We observed a broad, spatial pattern in the carbon stable isotope ratio (δ¹³C); downriver enrichment in particulate organic carbon and aquatic vegetation δ¹³C, as well as pelagic, benthic and littoral invertebrate δ¹³C, reflected isotope mixing along the river-lake transition zone. Fishes with similarly enriched δ¹³C were used to identify benthopelagic and littoral trophic pathways. River and Lake Superior organic matter (OM) sources contributed to both pathways. Differences between the δ¹³C in fishes and invertebrate prey revealed that fish production was supported at multiple spatial scales. The result was that the food web specific to any location along the transition zone incorporated multiple OM sources from across the watershed.     

Isotopic Approach to Determining the Fate of Ammonium Regenerated from Sediments in a Eutrophic Sub-estuary of Waquoit Bay,MA

We measured fluxes of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ and δ¹⁵N of NH₄⁺, sediment, and porewater NH₄⁺ from incubated sediment cores along a nitrate gradient and in different seasons from Childs River, MA. NH₄⁺ flux was low at the downstream site with the lowest concentration of organic matter (high salinity) but otherwise did not differ along the estuary. The δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ ranged from +6.1‰ to +15.3‰ but did not vary significantly with season or salinity; the mean for the entire estuary was +10.4 ± 0.5‰. Based on differences between the δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ and sediment, and expected isotopic fractionation due to remineralization, we concluded that nitrification occurred after remineralization of NH₄⁺. Differences between the δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ and the δ¹⁵N of porewater NH₄⁺ provided further evidence of nitrification. We estimated that 11% to 48% of remineralized NH₄⁺ underwent coupled nitrification–denitrification before release into the water column. In spite of losses to denitrification, NH₄⁺ flux released 1.4 mol N m⁻² year⁻¹ to the water column and could provide 42% of phytoplankton nitrogen requirements.     

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Stream geochemistry, chemical weathering and CO2 consumption potential of andesitic terrains, Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Recent studies of chemical weathering of andesitic-dacitic material on high-standing islands (HSIs) have shown these terrains have some of the highest observed rates of chemical weathering and associated CO₂ consumption yet reported. However, the paucity of stream gauge data in many of these terrains has limited determination of chemical weathering product fluxes. In July 2006 and March 2008, stream water samples were collected and manual stream gauging was performed in watersheds throughout the volcanic island of Dominica in the Lesser Antilles. Distinct wet and dry season solute concentrations reveal the importance of seasonal variations on the weathering signal. A cluster analysis of the stream geochemical data shows the importance of parent material age on the overall delivery of solutes. Observed Ca:Na, HCO₃:Na and Mg:Na ratios suggest crystallinity of the parent material may also play an important role in determining weathering fluxes. From total dissolved solids concentrations and mean annual discharge calculations we calculate chemical weathering yields of (6-106 t km⁻² a⁻¹), which are similar to those previously determined for basalt terrains. Silicate fluxes (3.1-55.4 t km⁻² a⁻¹) and associated CO₂ consumption (190-1575 × 10³ mol km⁻² a⁻¹) determined from our study are among the highest determined to date. The calculated chemical fluxes from our study confirm the weathering potential of andesitic-dacitic terrains and that additional studies of these terrains are warranted.