The XMM-Newton Bright Serendipitous Survey: First Extragalactic Results

We present here some initial results from the ongoing XMM-Newton bright serendipitous survey. The survey is aimed at selecting and spectroscopically identifying a large and statistically representative sample of bright (f _x ≳ 7× 10⁻¹⁴ c.g.s) serendipitous X-ray sources in the 0.5–4.5 keV energy band (BSS) and a complementary (smaller) sample in the 4.5–7.5 keV energy band (HBSS). The work is partly based on observations obtained with XMM-Newton, an ESA science mission with instruments and contributors directly founded by ESA member states and the USA(NASA) and on observations collected at TNG. The TNG telescope is operated on the island of La Palma by the Centro Galileo Galilei of the INAF in the Spanish Observatorio del Roque de Los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias. On behalf of the XMM-Newton Survey Science Center.     

Stochastic models in the DORIS position time series: estimates for IDS contribution to ITRF2014

This paper focuses on the investigation of the deterministic and stochastic parts of the Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) weekly time series aligned to the newest release of ITRF2014. A set of 90 stations was divided into three groups depending on when the data were collected at an individual station. To reliably describe the DORIS time series, we employed a mathematical model that included the long-term nonlinear signal, linear trend, seasonal oscillations and a stochastic part, all being estimated with maximum likelihood estimation. We proved that the values of the parameters delivered for DORIS data are strictly correlated with the time span of the observations. The quality of the most recent data has significantly improved. Not only did the seasonal amplitudes decrease over the years, but also, and most importantly, the noise level and its type changed significantly. Among several tested models, the power-law process may be chosen as the preferred one for most of the DORIS data. Moreover, the preferred noise model has changed through the years from an autoregressive process to pure power-law noise with few stations characterised by a positive spectral index. For the latest observations, the medians of the velocity errors were equal to 0.3, 0.3 and 0.4 mm/year, respectively, for the North, East and Up components. In the best cases, a velocity uncertainty of DORIS sites of 0.1 mm/year is achievable when the appropriate coloured noise model is taken into consideration.     

Bather density as a predominant factor for health effects related to recreational bathing: results from the Greek bathers cohort study

Our aim was to examine the health effects on bathers from exposure to recreational seawater on three beaches with different microbiology quality and bather density through a cohort study. An initial questionnaire and a 10 day follow up were used. Univariate and backward logistic regression analyses were used to asses the risk of developing symptoms or diseases among the bathers. In total, 3805 bathers were included in the study and 149 samples were collected from the three beaches. Despite all the beaches being characterized of high quality the levels of bacterial indicators differed among them. Health effects among bathers were not associated with bacterial indicators. A statistically significant increased risk for symptoms related to respiratory illness, gastroenteritis, medical consultation and use of medication was observed among bathers at the higher bather density beaches. Beach bather numbers should always be taken into account when considering a risk assessment approach.     

A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and...     

Molecular analysis of petroleum derived compounds that adsorb onto gas hydrate surfaces

Field observations have shown that some streams of water, gas and crude oil do not form gas hydrate plugs during petroleum production even when operating within thermodynamic conditions for hydrate formation. Also, when studied under controlled laboratory conditions, some oils are found to form hydrate dispersed systems whereas others form plugs. Oils with low tendency to form hydrate plugs are believed to contain natural hydrate plug inhibiting components (NICs) that adsorb onto the hydrate surface, making them less water-wet and preventing the particles from agglomerating into large hydrate clusters. The molecular structure of the NICs is currently unknown. In this work, hydrate adsorbing components were extracted from crude oils using freon hydrates as an extraction phase. The fractions were found to be enriched in polar material, and more polar material is associated with hydrates generated in biodegraded crude oils than in non-biodegraded oils. Various fractionation schemes and analytical techniques have been applied in the search for molecular characterisation. The average molecular weights were found to be approximately 500 g/mole. GC–MS chromatograms show a large UCM (Unresolved Complex Mixture). Thus, GC–MS has a limited potential for identification of compounds. A commercial biosurfactant was used as a model compound in the search for similar structures in the extracts. The results from analysis of the hydrate adsorbing components suggest that the type and structure are more important for hydrate morphology than the amount of material adsorbed.     

Chemical and biological features of the saline Lake Krasnovishnevoye (Baraba,Russia) in comparison with Lake Malinovoe (Kulunda,Russia): a reconnaissance study

The Baraba and Kulunda steppes are located in southwestern Siberia in an area with an arid continental climate. This paper presents results of the first study of the hypersaline Lake Krasnovishnevoye(Baraba steppe, TDS(total dissolved solids)=297 g/L, pH 7.88). The major chemical, mineralogical and biological features of the lake were studied and compared to those of Lake Malinovoe, a typical saline neutral lake of Kulunda steppe(TDS=396 g/L, pH 7.63). The phytoplankton composition and the culturable diversity of anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria from Lake Krasnovishnevoye correspond to the ones in the Kulunda lakes. Nevertheless, the peculiarities of water composition and regime of Lake Krasnovishnevoye reduce the biodiversity to prokaryotes and unicellular algae.     

Rain on snow induced urban floods in cold maritime climate: Risk,indicators and trends

Urban floods pose a societal and economical risk. This study evaluated the risk and hydro-meteorological conditions that cause pluvial flooding in coastal cities in a cold climate. Twenty years of insurance claims data and up to 97 years of meteorological data were analysed for Reykjavík, Iceland (64.15°N; <100 m above sea level). One third of the city's wastewater collection system is combined, and pipe grades vary from 0.5% to 10%. Results highlight semi-intensive rain (<7 mm/h; ≤3 year return period) in conjunction with snow and frozen ground as the main cause for urban flood risk in a climate which undergoes frequent snow and frost cycles (avg. 13 and 19 per season, respectively). Floods in winter were more common, more severe and affected a greater number of neighbourhoods than during summer. High runoff volumes together with debris remobilized with high winds challenged the capacity of wastewater systems regardless of their age or type (combined vs. separate). The two key determinants for the number of insurance claims were antecedent frost depth and total precipitation volume per event. Two pluvial regimes were particularly problematic: long duration (13–25 h), late peaking rain on snow (RoS), where snowmelt enhanced the runoff intensity, elongated and connected independent rainfall into a singular, more voluminous (20–76 mm) event; shorter duration (7–9 h), more intensive precipitation that evolved from snow to rain. Closely timed RoS and cooling were believed to trigger frost formation. A positive trend was detected in the average seasonal snow depth and volume of rain and snowmelt during RoS events. More emphasis, therefore, needs to be placed on designing and operating urban drainage infrastructure with regard to RoS co-acting with frozen ground. Furthermore, more detailed, routine monitoring of snow and soil conditions is important to predict RoS flood events.     

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.