Interdecadal variability of water thermal structure in the North Atlantic Region and its climatic significance

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

从空间飞行器注入电离层的调制电子束产生的电磁波辐射

调制电子束入射进电离层等离子体中会激发电磁波辐射,根据不同试验条件和等离子体状态,激发电磁波的机制也不一样.本文主要讨论半无界稀薄调制电子束沿地球磁场力线从空间飞行器入射到电离层等离子体产生的电磁波辐射,其相应的辐射机理是由于束的纵向约束而产生的电磁波辐射.理论分析和数值计算结果显示,在满足切伦柯夫（Cerenkov）共振条件时,哨声波前向辐射方向图有一个尖锐的峰值,且随着电子束弛豫长度的增加,辐射功率值也相应增大,表明可以通过对电子束的适当调制增强电子束激发的电磁波辐射强度.     

The fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Working group II contribution

Basic results of IPCC Working Group II, derived in the process of the work at the Fourth Assessment Report, are considered in brief. The results are given in conformity with the Summary for Policymakers adopted at the Plenary Meeting of Working Group II in Brussels on April 6, 2007. The authors’ comments on some results connected with the key vulnerable elements of natural and socioeconomic systems are given in the conclusion.     

Electric State of the Near-Surface Atmosphere according to the Results of Tethered Balloon Observations

The electric state of the near-surface atmosphere up to a height of 400 m is investigated using a tethered balloon with a measuring platform and a ground-based information-measuring complex of the Borok middle-latitude geophysical observatory. For the first time, measurements were taken simultaneously for vertical profiles of the atmospheric electric field, polar electrical conductivities, size distribution of aerosol particles, and the volume activity of radon, which have allowed estimating the average values and variability of the space charge density and conduction current in the atmosphere. The height dependence of the electric potential with respect to the Earth’s surface and electrical resistance of the near-surface atmospheric column under different conditions of the temperature stratification is studied.

     

主动空间试验中空间电荷波向电磁波的转换

本文理论分析了电子束沿地磁场穿越均匀、磁化等离子体密度跃变区域时,在弱磁场近似、哨声波激发、低频近似等几种典型情况下电子束流空间电荷波（Space charge wave）向电磁波的转换.先运用小信号假设求得电子束入射进均匀各向异性冷等离子体之后的色散关系和空间电荷波波数,然后借助于电磁波分量和电子束速度的边界条件,求解电子束在等离子浓度发生变化区域激发的波振幅,在几种典型情形下推导出空间电荷波转换为电磁波之间转换系数的近似解,给出了相应波辐射的坡印亭(Poynting)矢量表达式.结果表明,在渡越辐射（Transition radiation）情形下电子束可以在空间等离子体中激发出阿尔芬波（Alfven wave）和哨声波（Whistler wave）.所得结论可用于对主动空间试验结果的分析.     

Predicting Patterns of Near-Surface Air Temperature Using Empirical Data

The signal of recent global warming has been detected in meteorological records, borehole temperatures and by several indirect climate indicators. Anthropogenic warming continues to evolve, and various methods are used to study and predict the changes of the global and regional climate. Results derived from GCMs, palaeoclimate reconstructions, and regional climate models differ in detail. An empirical model could be used to predict the spatial pattern of the near-surface air temperature and to narrow the range of regional uncertainties. The idea behind this approach is to study the correlations between regional and global temperature using century-scale meteorological records, and to evaluate the regional pattern of the future climate using regression analysis and the global-mean air temperature as a predictor. This empirical model, however, is only applicable to those parts of the world where regional near-surface air temperature reacts linearly to changes of the global thermal regime. This method and data from a set of approximately 2000 weather stations with continuous century-scale records of the monthly air temperature was applied to develop the empirical map of the regional climate sensitivity. Data analysis indicated that an empirical model could be applied to several large regions of the World, where correlations between local and global air temperature are statistically significant. These regions are the western United States, southern Canada, Alaska, Siberia, south-eastern Asia, southern Africa and Australia, where the correlation coefficient is typically above 0.9. The map of regional climate sensitivity has been constructed using calculated coefficients of linear regression between the global-mean and regional annual air temperature. As long as the correlations between the local and global air temperature are close to those in the last several decades, this map provides an effective tool to scale down the projection of the global air temperature to regional level. According to the results of this study, maximum warming at the beginning of the 21st century will take place in the continental parts of North America and Eurasia. The empirical regional climate sensitivity defined here as the response of the mean-annual regional temperature to 1 °C global warming was found to be 5–6 °C in southern Alaska, central Canada, and over the continental Siberia, 3–4 °C on the North Slope of Alaska and western coast of the U.S.A., and 1–2 °C in most of the central and eastern U.S.A. and eastern Canada. Regions with negative sensitivity are located in the southeastern U.S.A., north-western Europe and Scandinavia. The local tendency towards cooling, although statistically confirmed by modern data, could, however, change in the near future.     

Estimation of critical levels of climate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems on the territory of Russia

Developed are the axiomatics and criteria for estimating the critical levels of climate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems based on the revelation of key climate-dependent environmental elements and model analysis of their variations. Developed is an empirical statistical vegetation model for the territory of Russia considering 15 vegetation zones including five ones in the permafrost zone. The model was used to estimate the proximity of the climate impact on the natural terrestrial ecosystems to the critical level for several climate projections.     

Numerical modeling of the influence of land–sea temperature contrasts on the atmospheric circulation in the Black-Sea region

The formation of the fields of surface winds over the Black Sea occurs under the action of numerous physical factors. One of the most important factors is the monsoon mechanism connected with the seasonal variations of buoyancy contrasts over the sea and surrounding land. To separate the effects caused by this mechanism, we performed and described the numerical experiments aimed at the evaluation of the sensitivity of the regional model of atmospheric circulation to the variations of land–sea temperature contrasts. It is shown that the influence of these effects is restricted to the lower part of the atmosphere. The presented estimates of the climatic fields of disturbances enable us to describe the monsoon mechanism specifying the seasonal variability of the field of vorticity of the wind velocities and, as a consequence, the seasonal variability of the large-scale circulation of waters in the Black Sea.     

Comparative analysis of land,marine, and satellite observations of methane in the lower Atmosphere in the Russian Arctic under conditions of climate change

Land, marine, and satellite observations have been used to study changes in methane concentrations in the lower atmosphere during the warm months of the year (July through October) in Arctic regions having different potentials for methane production. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) data for 2002–2013 are used to explore the interplay between local methane sources in the terrestrial region of the Eurasian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf over the warm period of the year. Linear trends in atmospheric methane concentrations over different Arctic regions are calculated, and a hypothesis of the relation of concentration variations to climatic parameters is tested. The combination of land, marine, and satellite observation is used to develop a conceptual model of the atmospheric methane field in the terrestrial part of the Russian Arctic and on the Arctic shelf. It is shown that the modern methane growth rate in the Arctic does not exceed the Northern Hemisphere mean. It is concluded that the methane emission in the Arctic has little effect on global climate compared to other factors.