Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling X-Ray Photoionized Plasmas Produced at the Sandia Z-Facility

In experiments at the high-power Z-facility at Sandia National Laboratory in Albuquerque, New Mexico, we have been able to produce a low density photoionized laboratory plasma of Fe mixed with NaF. The conditions in the experiment allow a meaningful comparison with X-ray emission from astrophysical sources. The charge state distributions of Fe, Na and F are determined in this plasma using high resolution X-ray spectroscopy. Independent measurements of the density and radiation flux indicate unprecedented values for the ionization parameter ξ = 20–25 erg cm s⁻¹ under nearly steady-state conditions. First comparisons of the measured charge state distributions with X-ray photoionization models show reasonable agreement, although many questions remain.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain

A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps.     

A linear projection for the timing of unprecedented climate in Korea

Recently we have had abnormal weather events worldwide that are attributed by climate scientists to the global warming induced by human activities. If the global warming continues in the future and such events occur more frequently and someday become normal, we will have an unprecedented climate. This study intends to answer when we will have an unprecedented warm climate, focusing more on the regional characteristics of the timing of unprecedented climate. Using an in-situ observational data from weather stations of annual-mean surface air temperature in Korea from 1973 to 2015, we estimate a timing of unprecedented climate with a linear regression method. Based on the in-situ data with statistically significant warming trends at 95% confidence level, an unprecedented climate in Korea is projected to occur first in Cheongju by 2043 and last in Haenam by 2168. This 125-year gap in the timing indicates that a regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate is considerably large in Korea. Despite the high sensitivity of linear estimation to the data period and resolution, our findings on the large regional difference in timing of unprecedented climate can give an insight into making policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation, not only for the central government but for provincial governments.     

Chemical and textural equilibration of garnet during amphibolite facies metamorphism: The influence of coupled dissolution–reprecipitation

Metamorphic equilibration requires chemical communication between minerals and may be inhibited through sluggish volume diffusion and or slow rates of dissolution in a fluid phase. Relatively slow diffusion and the perceived robust nature of chemical growth zoning may preclude garnet porphyroblasts from readily participating in low‐temperature amphibolite facies metamorphic reactions. Garnet is widely assumed to be a reactant in staurolite‐isograd reactions, and the evidence for this has been assessed in the Late Proterozoic Dalradian pelitic schists of the Scottish Highlands. The 3D imaging of garnet porphyroblasts in staurolite‐bearing schists reveals a good crystal shape and little evidence of marginal dissolution; however, there is also lack of evidence for the involvement of either chlorite or chloritoid in the reaction. Staurolite forms directly adjacent to the garnet, and its nucleation is strongly associated with deformation of the muscovite‐rich fabrics around the porphyroblasts. “Cloudy” fluid inclusion‐rich garnet forms in both marginal and internal parts of the garnet porphyroblast and is linked both to the production of staurolite and to the introduction of abundant quartz inclusions within the garnet. Such cloudy garnet typically has a Mg‐rich, Mn‐poor composition and is interpreted to have formed during a coupled dissolution–reprecipitation process, triggered by a local influx of fluid. All garnet in the muscovite‐bearing schists present in this area is potentially reactive, irrespective of the garnet composition, but very few of the schists contain staurolite. The staurolite‐producing reaction appears to be substantially overstepped during the relatively high‐pressure Barrovian regional metamorphism reflecting the limited permeability of the schists in peak metamorphic conditions. Fluid influx and hence reaction progress appear to be strongly controlled by subtle differences in deformation history. The remaining garnet fails to achieve chemical equilibrium during the reaction creating distinctive patchy compositional zoning. Such zoning in metamorphic garnet created during coupled dissolution–reprecipitation reactions may be difficult to recognize in higher grade pelites due to subsequent diffusive re‐equilibration. Fundamental assumptions about metamorphic processes are questioned by the lack of chemical equilibrium during this reaction and the restricted permeability of the regional metamorphic pelitic schists. In addition, the partial loss of prograde chemical and textural information from the garnet porphyroblasts cautions against their routine use as a reliable monitor of metamorphic history. However, the partial re‐equilibration of the porphyroblasts during coupled dissolution–reprecipitation opens possibilities of mapping reaction progress in garnet as a means of assessing fluid access during peak metamorphic conditions.     

Earth's rotation variations: a wavelet analysis

Historical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood.     

Intergranular diffusion rates from the analysis of garnet surfaces: Implications for metamorphic equilibration

Novel approaches to garnet analysis have been used to assess rates of intergranular diffusion between different matrix phases and garnet porphyroblasts in a regionally metamorphosed staurolite‐mica‐schist from the Barrovian‐type area in Scotland. X‐ray maps and chemical traverses of planar porphyroblast surfaces reveal chemical heterogeneity of the garnet grain boundary linked to the nature of the adjacent matrix phase. The garnet preserves evidence of low temperature retrograde exchange with matrix minerals and diffusion profiles documenting cation movement along the garnet boundaries. Garnet–quartz and garnet–plagioclase boundaries preserve evidence of sluggish Mg, Mn and Fe diffusion at comparable rates to volume diffusion in garnet, whereas diffusion along garnet–biotite interfaces is much more effective. Evidence of particularly slow Al transport, probably coupled to Fe³⁺ exchange, is locally preserved on garnet surfaces adjacent to Fe‐oxide phases. The Ca distribution on the garnet surface shows the most complex behaviour, with long‐wavelength heterogeneities apparently unrelated to the matrix grain boundaries. This implies that the Ca content of garnet is controlled by local availability and is thought likely to reflect disequilibrium established during garnet growth. Geochemical anomalies on the garnet surfaces are also linked to the location of triple junctions between the porphyroblasts and the matrix phases, and imply enhanced transport along these channels. The slow rates of intergranular diffusion and the characteristics of different boundary types may explain many features associated with the prograde growth of garnet porphyroblasts. Thus, minerals such as quartz, Fe‐oxides and plagioclase whose boundaries with garnet are characterized by slow intergranular diffusion rates appear to be preferentially trapped as inclusions within porphyroblasts. As such grain boundary diffusion rates may be a significant kinetic impediment to metamorphic equilibrium and garnet may struggle to maintain chemical and textural equilibrium during growth in pelites.