Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk

Risk, including flood risk, can be defined as ??the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences??. Assessing and managing the risk from flooding should explicitly include the estimation of impacts to people. Extensive research is currently ongoing looking at both quantitative and qualitative approaches for assessing flood impacts on people. Although there is some literature available on such approaches, examples of methodological and routinely applications of these methodologies as part of flood risk assessments are rare. This paper focuses on quantitative approaches for estimating impacts of flooding to people, notably on methods for assessing fatality numbers associated with flooding. Three methods for assessing losses of life are discussed in detail. The methods discussed here constitute the forefront of research in Canada, UK and The Netherlands. These methods provide an assessment of the physical consequences of flooding on people and can be used to introduce the impacts to people as quantitative metric for the assessment of flood risk. In this paper, the three methodologies are discussed and applied in a UK case study reproducing the 1953 East Coast flood event. This study aims to provide a comprehensive comparison on both the reliability and the applicability of the methods. We analyse possible added values on using of these methods in systematic analyses, aiming to provide guidelines for applying these methods for flood fatality risk assessment.     

Mars mesospheric zonal wind around northern spring equinox from infrared heterodyne observations of CO2

We present direct observations of Mars zonal wind velocities around northern spring equinox (L_S = 336°, L_S = 355°, L_S = 42°) during martian year 27 and 29. Data was acquired by means of infrared heterodyne spectroscopy of CO₂ features at 959.3917 cm^?1 (10.4232 μm) and 957.8005 cm^?1 (10.4405 μm) using the Cologne Tuneable Heterodyne Infrared Spectrometer (THIS) at the McMath–Pierce telescope of the National Solar Observatory on Kitt Peak in Arizona and the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility on Mauna Kea, Hawaii between 2005 and 2008. Winds were measured on the dayside of Mars with an unprecedented spatial resolution allowing sampling of up to nine independent latitudes over the martian disk. Retrieved wind velocities depend strongly on latitude and season with values ranging from 180 m/s prograde to ?94 m/s retrograde. A comparison of the observational results to predicted values from the Mars Climate Database yield a reasonable agreement between modeling and observation.     

Inverse modeling of coastal aquifers using tidal response and hydraulic tests

Remediation of contaminated aquifers demands a reliable characterization of hydraulic connectivity patterns. Hydraulic diffusivity is possibly the best indicator of connectivity. It can be derived using the tidal response method (TRM), which is based on fitting observations to a closed-form solution. Unfortunately, the conventional TRM assumes homogeneity. The objective of this study was to overcome this limitation and use tidal response to identify preferential flowpaths. Additionally, the procedure requires joint inversion with hydraulic test data. These provide further information on connectivity and are needed to resolve diffusivity into transmissivity and storage coefficient. Spatial variability is characterized using the regularized pilot points method. Actual application may be complicated by the need to filter tidal effects from the response to pumping and by the need to deal with different types of data, which we have addressed using maximum likelihood methods. Application to a contaminated artificial coastal fill leads to flowpaths that are consistent with the materials used during construction and to solute transport predictions that compare well with observations. We conclude that tidal response can be used to identify connectivity patterns. As such, it should be useful when designing measures to control sea water intrusion.     

The cenozoic aquifer system of the Lower Tagus Basin: a description of the hydrogeological situation in the Almada region (Portugal)

A conceptual hydrogeological model of the Mio-Pleistocene deposits in the Almada region, located in the Cenozoic aquifer system of the Lower Tagus Basin (Portugal), has been developed. Though numerous studies have been conducted on its geological features, there have not been enough hydrogeological investigations to define the origin, flow path and the groundwater quality and to understand the coexistence of overlapped interacting aquifers. Therefore, a study is presented here on the occurrences and features of groundwater resources in the Almada region based on an inventory in the field (wells, springs and boreholes), physical and chemical analyses, geologic setting, and tectonic and geomorphologic observations. This aquifer system has long been a source of concern because of the high level of extraction over the last few decades, as well as the progressive degradation of the water quality. Available groundwater resources have been affected by intensive agricultural and industrial activity, as a consequence of incorrect or non-existent hydrogeological knowledge.     

Hydraulic failure of diaphragm walls: a possible methodology for safety improvement

The paper presents a methodology aimed at reducing—or even avoiding—the risk of heave and uplift failures of reinforced concrete diaphragm walls. The method is based on the simple concept of increasing the drainage capacity of the embedded portion of the retaining walls. The behaviour of a strutted excavation in a cohesionless soil below groundwater is examined by means of two distinct series of numerical analyses, respectively focused on the hydraulic and mechanical behaviour of the retaining system. It is shown that, for some frequent cases, such methodology is capable to improve the safety of the retaining system with respect to both hydraulic and geotechnical limit states.     

Rb and Sr partitioning between haplogranitic melts and aqueous solutions

Rubidium and strontium partitioning experiments between haplogranitic melts and aqueous fluids (water or 1.16-3.56 m (NaCl + KCl) ± HCl) were conducted at 750-950 °C and 0.2-1.4 GPa to investigate the effects of melt and fluid composition, pressure, and temperature. In addition, we studied if the applied technique (rapid and slow quench, and in-situ determination of trace element concentration in the fluid) has a bearing on the obtained data. There is good agreement of the data from different techniques for chloridic solutions, whereas back reactions between fluid and melt upon cooling have a significant effect on results from the experiments with water.The Rb fluid-melt partition coefficient shows no recognizable dependence on melt composition and temperature.For chloridic solutions, it is ∼0.4, independent of pressure. In experiments with water, it is one to two orders of magnitude lower and increases with pressure. The strontium fluid-melt partition coefficient does not depend on temperature. It increases slightly with pressure in Cl free experiments. In chloridic fluids, there is a sharp increase in the Sr partition coefficient with the alumina saturation index (ASI) from 0.003 at an ASI of 0.8 to a maximum of 0.3 at an ASI of 1.05. At higher ASI, it decreases slightly to 0.2 at an ASI of 1.6. It is one to two orders of magnitude higher in chloridic fluids compared to those found in H₂O experiments. The Rb/Sr ratio in non-chloridic solutions in equilibrium with metaluminous melts increases with pressure, whereas the Rb/Sr ratio in chloridic fluids is independent of pressure and decreases with fluid salinity.The obtained fluid-melt partition coefficients are in good agreement with data from natural cogenetic fluid and melt inclusions. Numerical modeling shows that although the Rb/Sr ratio in the residual melt is particularly sensitive to the degree of fractional crystallization, exsolution of a fluid phase, and associated fluid-melt partitioning is not a significant factor controlling Rb and Sr concentrations in the residual melt during crystallization of most granitoids.     

Combined Earth orientation parameters based on homogeneous and continuous VLBI and GPS data

The CONT02 campaign is of great interest for studies combining very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) with other space-geodetic techniques, because of the continuously available VLBI observations over 2 weeks in October 2002 from a homogeneous network. Especially, the combination with the Global Positioning System (GPS) offers a broad spectrum of common parameters. We combined station coordinates, Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) and troposphere parameters consistently in one solution using technique- specific datum-free normal equation systems. In this paper, we focus on the analyses concerning the EOPs, whereas the comparison and combination of the troposphere parameters and station coordinates are covered in a companion paper in Journal of Geodesy. In order to demonstrate the potential of the VLBI and GPS space-geodetic techniques, we chose a sub-daily resolution for polar motion (PM) and universal time (UT). A consequence of this solution set-up is the presence of a one-to-one correlation between the nutation angles and a retrograde diurnal signal in PM. The Bernese GPS Software used for the combination provides a constraining approach to handle this singularity. Simulation studies involving both nutation offsets and rates helped to get a deeper understanding of this singularity. With a rigorous combination of UT1–UTC and length of day (LOD) from VLBI and GPS, we showed that such a combination works very well and does not suffer from the systematic effects present in the GPS-derived LOD values. By means of wavelet analyses and the formal errors of the estimates, we explain this important result. The same holds for the combination of nutation offsets and rates. The local geodetic ties between GPS and VLBI antennas play an essential role within the inter-technique combination. Several studies already revealed non-negligible discrepancies between the terrestrial measurements and the space-geodetic solutions. We demonstrate to what extent these discrepancies propagate into the combined EOP solution.     

On the origin of saline fluids in the KTB (continental deep drilling project of Germany)

Highly saline fluids were encountered during the German Continental Deep Drilling Project (KTB) from depths ranging between 2 and 3 km to about 9 km. The most reliable data were obtained from samples extracted during a long-term pumping test in the 4000-m deep KTB pilot hole. Some 460 m³ CaNaCl brines with about 68 g l⁻¹ total dissolved solids (TDS) and some 270 m³ associated gases, mainly N₂ and CH₄ were pumped to the surface from the main fracture system situated near the bottom of the pilot hole. Geochemical and isotopic data support the hydraulic tests which suggest the presence of an open and large fluid reservoir at depth. The pumped fluids from this main fracture system were released from a deep reservoir situated at more than 5500 m depth which is hydraulically connected with the 9101 m deep KTB main hole, drilled some 250 m to the northeast of the pilot hole.While Ca and Sr contents of the extracted brines may be the result of water-rock interaction, Cl is most likely of external origin. The Cl is hypothesized to derive from geotectonic processes rather than to descending infiltration of paleo-seawater (evaporitic brines). The sampled fluids have probably migrated from a deeper reservoir to their present position since the Cretaceous-Tertiary period due to tectonic activity. However, several isotopic studies have identified an admixture of descending paleowaters down to more than 4000 m depth. The high ³⁶ClCl ratio of the fluids sampled during the long-term pumping test point to a host rock highly enriched in UTh, unlike the sampled KTB country rocks. The fluid reservoir is believed to be in contact with the Falkenberg granite massif situated about 2 km to the E of the KTB holes capable of supplying sufficient neutron flux for considerable subsurface production of 36C1. The NaCl(K, SO₄) precursor fluids of the CaNaCI brines were produced in the course of extensive tectonic processes since the Late Caledonian within the Bohemian Massif.     

Correlation between nitrate concentration in groundwater and parameters affecting aquifer intrinsic vulnerability

This paper is the result of a study which was carried out in order to verify if the traditional methods to evaluate the intrinsic vulnerability or vulnerability related parameters, are able to clarify the problem of nitrate pollution in groundwater. In particular, the aim was to evaluate limitations and problems connected to aquifer vulnerability methods applied to nitrate contamination prevision in groundwater. The investigation was carried out by comparing NO₃ ⁻ concentrations, measured in March and November 2004 in the shallow aquifer, and the vulnerability classes, obtained by using GOD and TOT methods. Moreover, it deals with a comparison between NO₃ ⁻ concentrations and single parameters (depth to water table, land use and nitrogen input). The study area is the plain sector of Piemonte (Northern Italy), where an unconfined aquifer nitrate contamination exists. In this area the anthropogenic presence is remarkable and the input of N-fertilizers and zootechnical effluents to the soil cause a growing amount of nitrates in groundwater. This approach, used in a large area (about 10,000 km²) and in several monitoring wells (about 500), allowed to compare the efficiency of different vulnerability methods and to verify the importance of every parameter on the nitrate concentrations in the aquifer. Furthermore it allowed to obtain interesting correlations in different hydrogeological situations. Correlations between depth to water table, land use and nitrogen input to the soil with nitrate concentrations in groundwater show unclear situations: in fact these comparisons describe the phenomenon trend and highlight the maximum nitrate concentrations for each circumstance but often show wide ranges of possible nitrate concentrations. The same situation could be observed by comparing vulnerability indexes and nitrate concentrations in groundwater. These results suggest that neither single parameters nor vulnerability methods (GOD and TOT) are able to describe individually the complex phenomena affecting nitrate concentrations in soil, subsoil and groundwater. In particular, the traditional methods for vulnerability analysis do not analyze physical processes in aquifers, such as denitrification and nitrate dilution. According to a recent study in the shallow unconfined aquifer of the Piemonte plain, dilution can be considered as the main cause for nitrate attenuation in groundwater.