Assessing scalar concentration footprint climatology and land surface impacts on tall-tower CO2 concentration measurements in the boreal forest of central Saskatchewan,Canada

Reducing the large uncertainties in current estimates of CO₂ sources and sinks at regional scales (10²–10⁵ km²) is fundamental to improving our understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Continuous high-precision CO₂ concentration measurements on a tower within the planetary boundary layer contain information on regional carbon fluxes; however, its spatial representativeness is generally unknown. In this study, we developed a footprint model (Simple Analytical Footprint model based on Eulerian coordinates for scalar Concentration [SAFE-C]) and applied it to two CO₂ concentration towers in central Canada: the East Trout Lake 106-m-tall tower (54°21′N, 104°59′W) and the Candle Lake 28-m-high tower (53°59′N, 105°07′W). Results show that the ETL tower’s annual concentration footprints were around 10³–10⁵ km². The monthly footprint climatologies in summer were 1.5–2 times larger than in winter. The impacts of land surface carbon flux associated with heterogeneous distribution of vegetation types on the CO₂ concentration measurements were different for the different heights, varied with a range of ±5 % to ±10 % among four heights. This study indicates that concentration footprint climatology analysis is important in interpreting the seasonal, annual and inter-annual variations of tower measured CO₂ concentration data and is essential for comparing and scaling regional carbon flux estimates using top-down or bottom-up approaches.     

On the generation of climate model ensembles

Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.     

Dynamic adaptive pathways in downscaled climate change scenarios

The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.     

A Cromerian Complex stalagmite from the Mendip Hills,England

In order to provide a better chronological constraint on a British Middle Pleistocene interglacial, a large stalagmite boss from the Mendip Hills was selected for palaeoclimate data using pollen analysis. Dating analyses by thermal ionisation mass spectrometry (TIMS) of uranium–thorium ratios and by magnetostratigraphy constrain the age of the sample to 450–780 ka. The isotopic consistency of the TIMS analyses, plus the presence of luminescence laminations, suggest that the sample has been preserved under closed-system conditions. Pollen assemblages have been recovered from the speleothems, despite the fact that the pH of calcite deposition is usually greater than 7. Furthermore the evidence presented here indicates that the pollen was probably transported by the speleothem feedwater, rather than entering the cave aerially. The pollen record contained within the stalagmite is interpreted as early–mid-interglacial but does not have clear Cromerian affinity. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holocene river development and environmental change in Upper Wharfedale,Yorkshire Dales,England

This paper provides the first radiometrically dated evidence of Holocene alluvial landform development in Upper Wharfedale, Yorkshire Dales. Four river terraces are identified. Terraces 1 and 2 are closely linked to Late Devensian and early Holocene environmental change, with gravel reworked from local glacial and periglacial sources prior to cementation by carbonate‐rich waters. U‐series dating of cement provides age estimates for cementation of between ca. 5.1–7.4 kyr BP for Terrace 1 and ca. 3.6–>8.0 kyr BP for Terrace 2. U‐series dating of tufas overlying Terraces 1 and 2 produced ages of ca. 4.2–4.5 kyr BP and ca. 2.1–2.2 kyr BP respectively, and provide upper age limits for terrace formation. Terrace 3 marks a change in sediment calibre, supply and sedimentation style, and ¹⁴C dating suggests that the principal source of fine‐grained material may be agricultural expansion in the Yorkshire Dales from ca. ad 600 (1350 cal. yr BP). Radiocarbon dates indicate that Terrace 4 was deposited from the eleventh century, with initiation of the contemporary floodplain between the fifteenth and seventeenth centuries ad. Both these lowest units contain sediments contaminated with heavy metals as a result of mining activities within the catchment. The evidence presented in this study is comparable to that of research undertaken in upland environments elsewhere in northern and western Britain, thereby adding to the corpus of information currently available for evaluating the fluvial geomorphological response to climate and vegetation change during the Holocene. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Living with an active star

Observations have shown that the Sun is far from being a stable, unchanging object. Rather, we live within the outer atmosphere of a variable star. Andy Breen presents a summary of a meeting that drew together new results from observations and computational modelling of the Sun, interplanetary space and the upper atmosphere of the Earth.     

A contribution to Pleistocene chronology in southeast Essex,England

Parallel to the Essex coast north of the mouth of the Thames, a series of gravel spreads ranging in altitude from near sea level westward to more than 200 ft O.D. (mean sea level) proved to be the remnants of an abandoned Thames/Medway terrace system, rather than a series of “raised” beaches, as their location had suggested. The seaward side of the ancient river valley has subsequently been “captured” by subsidence.Evidence is given for five terraces, with surface levels between 5 and 75 ft O.D. Because of subsidence of the Essex coast, the terrace levels are not easily correlatable with either the Thames or Medway terrace levels. Temporal placement is attempted on the basis of one site in the 25 ft Barling terrace, which yielded a Middle Acheulian archaeological assemblage associated with a cool temperate fauna including an early form of mammoth. An ice wedge cast in the Barling terrace was filled with floodloam which weathered to a parabraunerde soil during an interglacial climate warmer than now. For these reasons man is thought to have lived on the floodplain of the Barling terrace either at the onset of the Wolstonian (Riss) glacial or during an interstadial of that stage. The question of possible linkages between Swanscombe and Clacton terraces is discussed.     

The radiocarbon budget for Mono Lake: an unsolved mystery

Since 1957 the ¹⁴C/C ratio of the dissolved inorganic carbon in Mono Lake has risen by about 60‰. The magnitude of this increase is about four times larger than that expected from the invasion of bomb-produced¹⁴C from the atmosphere. We have eliminated the following explanations: (1) measurement error, (2) an unusually high physical exchange rate for non-reactive gases, (3) inorganic enhancement of the CO₂ exchange rate, and (4) biological enhancement of the CO₂ exchange rate. Clandestine disposal of waste radiocarbon remains a dark-horse explanation.In the course of our investigations we have uncovered evidence for at least one episodic input of radiocarbon-free carbon to the lake over the last 1000 years. We speculate that this injection was related to a hydrothermal event resulting from sublacustrine volcanic activity.