“Phasic” metropolitan settlers: a phase-based model for the distribution of households in US metropolitan regions

In this article, we develop a model for explaining spatial patterns in the distribution of households across metropolitan regions in the United States. First, we use housing consumption and residential mobility theories to construct a hypothetical probability distribution function for the consumption of housing services across three phases of household life span. We then hypothesize a second probability distribution function for the offering of housing services based on the distance from city center(s) at the metropolitan scale. Intersecting the two hypothetical probability functions, we develop a phase-based model for the distribution of households in US metropolitan regions. We argue that phase one households (young adults) are more likely to reside in central city locations, whereas phase two and three households are more likely to select suburban locations, due to their respective housing consumption behaviors. We provide empirical validation of our theoretical model with the data from the 2010 US Census for 35 large metropolitan regions.     

A morphometric analysis of gullies scoured by post-fire progressively bulked debris flows in southwest Montana, USA

In the fall of 2001, an intense thunderstorm in southwest Montana triggered many debris flows in the burned area of Sleeping Child Creek. In most instances, the debris flows cut deep gullies into previously unchannelized colluvial hollows and deposited large volumes of sediment onto the valley floor. The presence of rill networks above the gullies as well as the absence of landslide features indicate that the gullies were scoured by progressively bulked debris flows, a process in which dilute surface runoff becomes increasingly more laden with sediment until it transforms into a debris flow. In this contribution, we present a morphometric analysis of six of the gullies to better understand this relatively understudied process. We find that the locations of the rill heads and gully heads conform to slope-area thresholds that are characteristic of erosion by overland flow. Our data also suggest that the volumes of the debris flows increase exponentially with normalized drainage area, thus lending support to an assumption used in a recently proposed debris flow incision law. Finally, the debris flow fans have been relatively unaltered since deposition, suggesting that the valley may be currently aggrading while the hillslopes are being denuded.     

Stalked barnacles (Cirripedia,Thoracica) from the Upper Jurassic (Tithonian) Kimmeridge Clay of Dorset,UK; palaeoecology and bearing on the evolution of living forms

New thoracican cirripede material from the Kimmeridge Clay (Upper Jurassic, Tithonian) is described. This includes a log, encrusted on the lower surface with hundreds of perfectly preserved, articulated specimens of Etcheslepas durotrigensis Gale, 2014, and fewer specimens of Concinnalepas costata (Withers, 1928). Some individuals are preserved in life position, hanging from the underside of the wood, and the material provides new morphological information on both species. It appears that Martillepas ovalis (Withers, 1928), which occurs at the same level (Freshwater Steps Stone Band, pectinatus Zone) attached preferentially to ammonites, whereas E. durotrigensis and C. costata used wood as a substrate for their epiplanktonic lifestyle. Two regurgitates containing abundant barnacle valves, mostly broken, and some bivalve fragments, have been found in the Kimmeridge Clay. These were produced by a fish grazing on epiplanktonic species, and are only the second example of regurgitates containing barnacle valves known from the fossil record. The evolution of modern barnacle groups is discussed in the light of the new Jurassic material as well as recently published molecular phylogenies. New clades defined herein are called the Phosphatothoracica, the Calamida and the Unilatera.     

Holocene river development and environmental change in Upper Wharfedale,Yorkshire Dales,England

This paper provides the first radiometrically dated evidence of Holocene alluvial landform development in Upper Wharfedale, Yorkshire Dales. Four river terraces are identified. Terraces 1 and 2 are closely linked to Late Devensian and early Holocene environmental change, with gravel reworked from local glacial and periglacial sources prior to cementation by carbonate‐rich waters. U‐series dating of cement provides age estimates for cementation of between ca. 5.1–7.4 kyr BP for Terrace 1 and ca. 3.6–>8.0 kyr BP for Terrace 2. U‐series dating of tufas overlying Terraces 1 and 2 produced ages of ca. 4.2–4.5 kyr BP and ca. 2.1–2.2 kyr BP respectively, and provide upper age limits for terrace formation. Terrace 3 marks a change in sediment calibre, supply and sedimentation style, and ¹⁴C dating suggests that the principal source of fine‐grained material may be agricultural expansion in the Yorkshire Dales from ca. ad 600 (1350 cal. yr BP). Radiocarbon dates indicate that Terrace 4 was deposited from the eleventh century, with initiation of the contemporary floodplain between the fifteenth and seventeenth centuries ad. Both these lowest units contain sediments contaminated with heavy metals as a result of mining activities within the catchment. The evidence presented in this study is comparable to that of research undertaken in upland environments elsewhere in northern and western Britain, thereby adding to the corpus of information currently available for evaluating the fluvial geomorphological response to climate and vegetation change during the Holocene. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of distributed snow water equivalent calibration and assimilation of Copernicus snow water equivalent on modelled snow and streamflow performance

Accuracy of the Copernicus snow water equivalent (SWE) product and the impact of SWE calibration and assimilation on modelled SWE and streamflow was evaluated. Daily snowpack measurements were made at 12 locations from 2016 to 2019 across a 4104 km² mixed-forest basin in the Great Lakes region of central Ontario, Canada. Sub-basin daily SWE calculated from these sites, observed discharge, and lake levels were used to calibrate a hydrologic model developed using the Raven modelling framework. Copernicus SWE was bias corrected during the melt period using mean bias subtraction and was compared to daily basin average SWE calculated from the measured data. Bias corrected Copernicus SWE was assimilated into the models using a range of parameters and the parameterizations from the model calibration. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed well with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE demonstrating that the product shows promise for hydrology applications within the study region. Calibration to spatially distributed SWE substantially improved the basin scale SWE estimate while only slightly degrading the flow simulation demonstrating the value of including SWE in a multi-objective calibration formulation. The particle filter experiments yielded the best SWE estimation but moderately degraded the flow simulation. The particle filter experiments constrained by the calibrated snow parameters produced similar results to the experiments using the upper and lower bounds indicating that, in this study, model calibration prior to assimilation was not valuable. The calibrated models exhibited varying levels of skill in estimating SWE but demonstrated similar streamflow performance. This indicates that basin outlet streamflow can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of distributed SWE. This may be sufficient for applications where estimating flow is the primary water management objective. However, in applications where understanding the physical processes of snow accumulation, melt and streamflow generation are important, such as assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, accurate representations of SWE are required and can be improved via multi-objective calibration or data assimilation, as demonstrated in this study.     

On the generation of climate model ensembles

Climate model ensembles are used to estimate uncertainty in future projections, typically by interpreting the ensemble distribution for a particular variable probabilistically. There are, however, different ways to produce climate model ensembles that yield different results, and therefore different probabilities for a future change in a variable. Perhaps equally importantly, there are different approaches to interpreting the ensemble distribution that lead to different conclusions. Here we use a reduced-resolution climate system model to compare three common ways to generate ensembles: initial conditions perturbation, physical parameter perturbation, and structural changes. Despite these three approaches conceptually representing very different categories of uncertainty within a modelling system, when comparing simulations to observations of surface air temperature they can be very difficult to separate. Using the twentieth century CMIP5 ensemble for comparison, we show that initial conditions ensembles, in theory representing internal variability, significantly underestimate observed variance. Structural ensembles, perhaps less surprisingly, exhibit over-dispersion in simulated variance. We argue that future climate model ensembles may need to include parameter or structural perturbation members in addition to perturbed initial conditions members to ensure that they sample uncertainty due to internal variability more completely. We note that where ensembles are over- or under-dispersive, such as for the CMIP5 ensemble, estimates of uncertainty need to be treated with care.     

Discriminating between background and mine-impacted groundwater at the Phoenix mine,Nevada USA

Differentiating between mineralized and non-mineralized background groundwater chemistry at a mine site can be challenging if there is an overprint of past and/or current mining on naturally mineralized conditions. At the Phoenix mine in the Copper Canyon mining district of Nevada, quantile–quantile H⁺/SO₄ plots were used to segregate four wells clearly impacted by historical mining activity. The mineralogy of rock at the elevation of the well screen interval was used to partition the 53 remaining wells into mineralized and non-mineralized populations. For each class, groundwater chemistry was examined to identify if SO₄ and H⁺ trends were stable (unimpacted) or increasing (impacted). Then each well was mapped as one of four resulting groundwater types across the mine site, defining the spatial extent of the different groups. Several groundwater regions were identified. A group of mineralized, mine-impacted wells (Type II) are located in Philadelphia Canyon adjacent to the Cu leach facility, with the anthropogenically impacted area bounded by several hydrologically downgradient, mineralized, unimpacted wells (Type I) to the south and east. There is a set of non-mineralized, impacted wells (Type III) downgradient from the tailings pond facility, where a historical release of SO₄ is apparent in the well record. However, in some downgradient wells the tailings pond pump-back mitigation system has resulted in recovery of the groundwater quality to a non-mineralized background condition. Finally, in the vicinity of the Reona heap leach pad, there is a group of non-mineralized, unimpacted wells (Type IV). Not surprisingly, most mineralized wells (Types I and II) are located in or near mined areas, while non-mineralized wells (Types III and IV) tend to be in the southern portion of the facility in the alluvia of Buffalo and Reese River valleys.     

Self-consistent gravitational lens reconstruction

We present a new method for directly determining accurate, self-consistent cluster lens mass and shear maps in the strong lensing regime from the magnification bias of background galaxies. The method relies upon pixellization of the surface mass density distribution which allows us to write down a simple, solvable set of equations. We also show how pixellization can be applied to methods of mass determination from measurements of shear and present a simplified method of application. The method is demonstrated with cluster models and applied to magnification data from the lensing cluster Abell 1689.     

Rapid underway profiling of water quality in Queensland estuaries

We present an overview of a portable underway water quality monitoring system (RUM-Rapid Underway Monitoring), developed by integrating several off-the-shelf water quality instruments to provide rapid, comprehensive, and spatially referenced 'snapshots' of water quality conditions. We demonstrate the utility of the system from studies in the Northern Great Barrier Reef (Daintree River) and the Moreton Bay region. The Brisbane dataset highlights RUM's utility in characterising plumes as well as its ability to identify the smaller scale structure of large areas. RUM is shown to be particularly useful when measuring indicators with large small-scale variability such as turbidity and chlorophyll-a. Additionally, the Daintree dataset shows the ability to integrate other technologies, resulting in a more comprehensive analysis, whilst sampling offshore highlights some of the analytical issues required for sampling low concentration data. RUM is a low cost, highly flexible solution that can be modified for use in any water type, on most vessels and is only limited by the available monitoring technologies.     

Life Strategies in Two Bacterivorous Marine Nematodes: Preliminary Results

Abstract. Temperature dependence of sex ratio and maximal densities of the estuarine, deposit-feeding nematodes Pellioditis marina (Rhabditidae ) and Diplolaimelloides meyli (Monhysreridae ) were investigated in vitro . Both species are characteristic for organically enriched habitats. Data from competition culture experiments with both species are integrated with information from respiration measurements at different temperatures, and from observations on the influence of temperature and bacterial density on uptake rates.
Sex ratio was significantly influenced by temperature in both species, with the highest relative numbers of males at the highest temperatures. Total numbers attained fluctuated only moderately in the 10 to 20 °C interval, but increased and decreased highly significantly at 25 °C for D. meyli and P. marina , respectively.
Respiration at temperatures from 5 °C to 30 °C was measured with nematodes from monospecific cultures using a modified Clark electrode procedure. Respiration was dependent upon temperature in the entire range for P. marina , but not for D. meyli , where only at 25 °C a clear respiratory acceleration was observed.
Feeding experiments with P. marina showed a dominant influence of bacterial density on uptake rates, with a lower but still significant temperature effect.
These data are discussed in relation to the overall life strategies of both species.