The importance of health co-benefits in macroeconomic assessments of UK Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategies

We employ a single-country dynamically-recursive Computable General Equilibrium model to make health-focussed macroeconomic assessments of three contingent UK Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation strategies, designed to achieve 2030 emission targets as suggested by the UK Committee on Climate Change. In contrast to previous assessment studies, our main focus is on health co-benefits additional to those from reduced local air pollution. We employ a conservative cost-effectiveness methodology with a zero net cost threshold. Our urban transport strategy (with cleaner vehicles and increased active travel) brings important health co-benefits and is likely to be strongly cost-effective; our food and agriculture strategy (based on abatement technologies and reduction in livestock production) brings worthwhile health co-benefits, but is unlikely to eliminate net costs unless new technological measures are included; our household energy efficiency strategy is likely to breakeven only over the long term after the investment programme has ceased (beyond our 20 year time horizon). We conclude that UK policy makers will, most likely, have to adopt elements which involve initial net societal costs in order to achieve future emission targets and longer-term benefits from GHG reduction. Cost-effectiveness of GHG strategies is likely to require technological mitigation interventions and/or demand-constraining interventions with important health co-benefits and other efficiency-enhancing policies that promote internalization of externalities. Health co-benefits can play a crucial role in bringing down net costs, but our results also suggest the need for adopting holistic assessment methodologies which give proper consideration to welfare-improving health co-benefits with potentially negative economic repercussions (such as increased longevity).     

Investigation of failures in Irish raised bogs

This paper presents the results of field geophysical testing and laboratory testing of peat from Carn Park and Roosky raised bogs in the Irish Midlands. The motivation for the work was highlight the importance of these areas and to begin to attempt to understand the reasons for the failure of the bogs despite them having surface slopes of some 1°. It was found that the peat is typical of that of Irish raised bogs being up to 8 m thick towards the “high” dome of the bogs. The peat is characterised by low density, high water content, high organic content, low undrained shear strength and high compressibility. The peat is also relatively permeable at in situ stress. Geophysical electrical resistivity tomography and ground penetrating radar data shows a clear thinning of the peat in the area of the failures corresponding to a reduction in volume from dewatering by edge drains/peat harvesting. This finding is supported by detailed water content measurements. It was also shown that the peat base topography is relatively flat and indicates that the observed surface movement has come from within the peat rather than from the material below the peat. Potential causes of the failures include conventional slope instability, the effect of seepage forces or the release of built-up gas in the peat mass. Further measurements are required in order to study these in more detail.     

Assessing the impact of distributed snow water equivalent calibration and assimilation of Copernicus snow water equivalent on modelled snow and streamflow performance

Accuracy of the Copernicus snow water equivalent (SWE) product and the impact of SWE calibration and assimilation on modelled SWE and streamflow was evaluated. Daily snowpack measurements were made at 12 locations from 2016 to 2019 across a 4104 km² mixed-forest basin in the Great Lakes region of central Ontario, Canada. Sub-basin daily SWE calculated from these sites, observed discharge, and lake levels were used to calibrate a hydrologic model developed using the Raven modelling framework. Copernicus SWE was bias corrected during the melt period using mean bias subtraction and was compared to daily basin average SWE calculated from the measured data. Bias corrected Copernicus SWE was assimilated into the models using a range of parameters and the parameterizations from the model calibration. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed well with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE demonstrating that the product shows promise for hydrology applications within the study region. Calibration to spatially distributed SWE substantially improved the basin scale SWE estimate while only slightly degrading the flow simulation demonstrating the value of including SWE in a multi-objective calibration formulation. The particle filter experiments yielded the best SWE estimation but moderately degraded the flow simulation. The particle filter experiments constrained by the calibrated snow parameters produced similar results to the experiments using the upper and lower bounds indicating that, in this study, model calibration prior to assimilation was not valuable. The calibrated models exhibited varying levels of skill in estimating SWE but demonstrated similar streamflow performance. This indicates that basin outlet streamflow can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of distributed SWE. This may be sufficient for applications where estimating flow is the primary water management objective. However, in applications where understanding the physical processes of snow accumulation, melt and streamflow generation are important, such as assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, accurate representations of SWE are required and can be improved via multi-objective calibration or data assimilation, as demonstrated in this study.     

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7–15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1–5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder’s engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.     

Significance of strain localization and fracturing in relation to hydrothermal mineralization at Mount Isa, Australia

The rheology of layered meta-sedimentary rocks, and their orientation and position relative to major fault systems were the key controls on Proterozoic hydrothermal copper mineralization at Mount Isa, Australia. Compositional layering in the host rock partitioned mechanical behavior and strain, leading to selective permeability generation and the focusing of fluid flow. Shale layers preferentially failed by plastic shearing, whereas meta-siltstones remained elastic or failed in tension depending on magnitude of deformation and fluid pressure. Numerical simulations support the hypothesis that the orientation of layering and the proximity to major fault systems controlled fracturing and permeability increase in the Urquhart shale. The dilating shale provided a pathway for an upward-flowing, reduced basement fluid, from which quartz was precipitated during cooling. During a later event, the reactivation of steep structures provided access to surface derived oxidized metal-bearing brine, causing the precipitation of dolomite followed by chalcopyrite ore in the brecciated silicified shale.     

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO₂ fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.     

Crystallization of Cr-poor and Cr-rich megacryst suites from the host kimberlite magma: implications for mantle structure and the generation of kimberlite magmas

Cr-poor and Cr-rich megacryst suites, both comprising of varying proportions of megacrysts of orthopyroxene, clinopyroxene, garnet, olivine, ilmenite and a number of subordinate phases, coexist in many kimberlites, with wide geographic distribution. In rare instances, the two suites occur together on the scale of individual megacryst hand specimens. Deformation textures are common to both suites, suggesting an origin related to the formation of the sheared peridotites that also occur in kimberlites. Textures and compositions of the latter are interpreted to reflect deformation and metasomatism within the thermal aureole surrounding the kimberlite magma in the mantle. The megacrysts crystallized in this thermal aureole in pegmatitic veins representing small volumes of liquids derived from the host kimberlite magma, which were injected into a surrounding fracture network prior to kimberlite eruption. Close similarities between compositions of Cr-rich megacryst phases and those in granular lherzolites are consistent with early crystallization from a primitive kimberlite liquid. The low-Cr megacryst suite subsequently crystallized from residual Cr-depleted liquids. However, the Cr-poor suite also reflects the imprint of contamination by liquids formed by melting of inhomogeneously distributed mantle phases with low melting temperatures, such as calcite and phlogopite, present within the thermal aureole surrounding the kimberlite magma reservoir. Such carbonate-rich melts migrated into, and mixed with some, but not all, of the kimberlite liquids injected into the mantle fracture network. Contamination by the carbonate-rich melts changed the Ca–Mg and Mg–Fe crystal–liquid distribution coefficient, resulting in the crystallization of relatively Fe-rich and Ca-poor phases. The implied higher crystal-melt Mg–Fe distribution coefficient for carbonate-rich magmas accounts for the generation of small volumes of Mg-rich liquids that are highly enriched in incompatible elements (i.e. primary kimberlite magmas). The inferred metasomatic origin for the sheared peridotites implies that this suite provides little or no information regarding vertical changes in the thermal, chemical and mechanical characteristics of the mantle.     

Modelling the Transport and Export of Sediments in Macrotidal Estuaries with Eroding Salt Marsh

A process-based numerical model is applied to investigate sediment transport dynamics and sediment budget in tide-dominated estuaries under different salt marsh erosion scenarios. Using a typical funnel-shaped estuary (Ribble Estuary, UK) as a study site, it is found that the remobilization of sediments within the estuary is increased as a result of the tidal inundation of the eroded salt marsh. The landward export of the finest sediment is also intensified. The relationship between salt marsh erosion and net landward export of sediments has been found to be non-linear—with the first 30% salt marsh erosion causing most of the predicted export. The presence of vegetation also influences the sediment budget. Results suggest that vegetation reduces the amount of sediment being transported upstream. Again, the trapping effect of salt marsh in terms of plant density is non-linear. Whilst a vegetated surface with a stem density of 64 plants/m² decreased the net landward export of very fine sand by around 50%, a further increase in stem density from 64 to 512 plants/m² had a relatively small effect.     

New media, the new economy and new spaces

This paper counters proponents of the ‘weightless economy’ who have suggested the ‘death of distance’ in relation to economic and social activities that use the worldwide web (WWW). An analysis of new media developers in New York’s ‘Silicon Alley’ demonstrates that place and distance are still important. The most important aspect of this co-location is the possibility of social interaction. This paper points to the value of analysis of the material practice of the social (and the economic and cultural). The notion of ‘untraded dependencies’ is developed through looking at its manifestation and constitution in the specificity of space, time and economic activity.