A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the Makran subduction zone at the northwestern Indian Ocean

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment is performed for the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) at the northwestern Indian Ocean employing a combination of probability evaluation of offshore earthquake occurrence and numerical modeling of resulting tsunamis. In our method, we extend the Kijko and Sellevoll’s (1992) probabilistic analysis from earthquakes to tsunamis. The results suggest that the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, as well as Muscat, Oman are the most vulnerable areas among those studied. The probability of having tsunami waves exceeding 5 m over a 50-year period in these coasts is estimated as 17.5%. For moderate tsunamis, this probability is estimated as high as 45%. We recommend the application of this method as a fresh approach for doing probabilistic hazard assessment for tsunamis. Finally, we emphasize that given the lack of sufficient information on the mechanism of large earthquake generation in the MSZ, and inadequate data on Makran’s paleo and historical earthquakes, this study can be regarded as the first generation of PTHA for this region and more studies should be done in the future.     

Groundwater recharge of carbonate aquifers of the Silesian-Cracow Triassic (southern Poland) under human impact

A Triassic carbonate unit has been intensively drained by zinc and lead ore mines and numerous borehole fields since the nineteenth century. Its groundwater recharge has increased due to: pumping of water from boreholes, mining activity, and urbanization. An approach to determine the amounts of the recharge at a variety of spatial scales is presented in the paper. Different methods were used to identify and quantify recharge components on a regional and local scale: mathematical modelling was performed for four aquifers included in an aquifer system, an analytical estimation based on the assumption that an average recharge is equal to the average discharge of the hydrogeological system—for six man-made drainage centres, and the method of water level fluctuation (WLF) was applied in one observation borehole. Results of modelling have been supplemented by observation of environmental tracers (δ¹⁸O, δ²H, ³H), noble gases temperatures, and ⁴He_exc in groundwater. The regional aquifer’s current recharge according to estimations performed by means of modelling varies from 39 to 101 mm/year on average. Depending on the aquifer site the average precipitation ranges from 779 to 864 mm/year. In the confined part of the aquifer average recharge ranges from 26 to 61 mm/year. Within outcrops average recharge varies from 96 to 370 mm/year. Current recharge estimated by the analytical method for man-made drainage centres varies from 158 up to 440 mm/year. High values are caused by different recharge sources like precipitation, induced leakage from shallow aquifers, and water losses from streams, water mains and sewer systems. Pumping of water, mining and municipal activities constitute additional factors accounting for the intensified recharge.     

Prospects for Scrutiny of Pulsars with Polish Part of LOFAR

LOFAR (LOw Frequency ARray) is a new generation digitally controlled radio telescope consisting of phased array antenna stations with sensitivity, bandwidth, range of frequency, and digital processing power that makes it an excellent tool for observations of pulsars. This interferometric instrument is able to work in a single-station mode as well as in group-of-selected-stations mode. This article discusses the great opportunity for conducting unique and independent research of pulsar sources with the three LOFAR stations located in Poland and maintained by the POLFAR consortium.     

Tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Upper Prealpine nappe (Switzerland and France): nappe formation by Late Cretaceous-Paleogene accretion

Abstract

The Upper Prealpine nappe of the Swiss and French Prealps consists of a composite stack of various tectonic slivers (Gets, Simme, Dranse and Sarine sub-nappes, from top to bottom). The structural superposition and stratigraphic content of the individual sub-nappes suggests a successive stacking at the South Penninic/Adriatic transition zone during the Late Cretaceous and Early Paleogene. The present paper deals with two aspects. (1) new data obtained from the Complexe de base Series of the Dranse sub-nappe which underlies the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation, and (2) the development of a geodynamic accretionary model for the Upper Prealpine nappe stacking.

The Complexe de base Series reveals a succession of black shales at the base, grading upward into variegated red/green and red shales which were deposited in an abyssal plain environment starved of clastic input. It is overlain by the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation. The combined analysis of planktic and agglutinated benthic foraminifera and comparisons with other Tethyan series suggest an Albian to Campanian age of the Complexe de base succession. Tectonic transport of the abyssal plain segment into a trench environment allowed for the stratigraphic superposition by the Helminthoid sandstone sequence. The present findings combine well with the general scheme of the Upper Prealpine nappe stack and several single results on parts of the nappe stack. We take that opportunity to present a comprehensive model for the tectono-sedimentary evolution of the Upper Prealpine nappe.

We suggest that Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous asymmetric (?) extension at the South Penninic-Adriatic margin created an extensional alloehthon. Later during the mid-Cretaceous, the start of convergence drove the obduction of oceanic crust on the northern margin of the extensional allochthon. The resulting ophiolitic/continental source supplied clasts to the trench basin in front (Manche turbidite series), and the backarc basin (Mocausa Formation) and abyssal plain (Perrières turbidite series) to the South. During Middle to Late Coniacian the main Adriatic margin was thrusted over the obductionrelated mixed belt and established an incipient accretionary prism containing the former trench, backarc and abyssal plain basin fill series. During this stage the Gueyraz (melange) Complex formed, which separates the trench series from the retroarc and abyssal plain formations. On top of the incipient accretionary prism a forearc basin developed hosting the Hundsrück Formation. The frontal abyssal plain formation (Complexe de base) still received few turbiditic intercalations. From Campanian time on, the forearc basin was bypassed and deposition of the Helminthoid Sandstone Formation occurred on the Complexe de base succession. During the Maastrichtian the abyssal plain and trench fill succession (Dranse nappe) was accreted to the incipient wedge, and in front of a newly active buttress, the Gurnigel trench basin was established. Another accretionary event during latest Paleocene/earliest Eocene added parts of that trench series to the base of the wedge (Sarine nappe). During the Late Eocene the accretionary wedge and remaining trench fill series (Gurnigel nappe) were thrusted en-bloc over the Middle Penninic limestone nappes and partly overtook the latter. Continued shortening of the resulting nappe pile and out-of-sequence thrusting accomplished the overriding of the Middle Penninic units over the former South Penninic Gurnigel trench series (inversion of palaeogeographic domains).     

Pure cross-anisotropy for geotechnical elastic potentials

The pure cross-anisotropy is understood as a special scaling of strain (or stress). The scaled tensor is used as an argument in the elastic stiffness (or compliance). Such anisotropy can be overlaid on the top of any elastic stiffness, in particular on one obtained from an elastic potential with its own stress-induced anisotropy. This superposition does not violate the Second Law. The method can be also applied to other functions like plastic potentials or yield surfaces, wherever some cross-anisotropy is desired. The pure cross-anisotropy is described by the sedimentation vector and at most two constants. Scaling with more than two purely anisotropic constants is shown impossible. The formulation was compared with experiments and alternative approaches. Static and dynamic calibration of the pure anisotropy is also discussed. Graphic representation of stiffness with the popular response envelopes requires some enhancement for anisotropy. Several examples are presented. All derivations and examples were accomplished using the algebra program Mathematica.

     

Combined mine tremors source location and error evaluation in the Lubin Copper Mine (Poland)

A modified method of mine tremors location used in Lubin Copper Mine is presented in the paper. In mines where an intensive exploration is carried out a high accuracy source location technique is usually required. The effect of the flatness of the geophones array, complex geological structure of the rock mass and intense exploitation make the location results ambiguous in such mines. In the present paper an effective method of source location and location's error evaluations are presented, combining data from two different arrays of geophones. The first consists of uniaxial geophones spaced in the whole mine area. The second is installed in one of the mining panels and consists of triaxial geophones. The usage of the data obtained from triaxial geophones allows to increase the hypocenter vertical coordinate precision. The presented two-step location procedure combines standard location methods: P-waves directions and P-waves arrival times. Using computer simulations the efficiency of the created algorithm was tested. The designed algorithm is fully non-linear and was tested on the multilayered rock mass model of the Lubin Copper Mine, showing a computational better efficiency than the traditional P-wave arrival times location algorithm. In this paper we present the complete procedure that effectively solves the non-linear location problems, i.e. the mine tremor location and measurement of the error propagation.     

An averaging procedure for layered materials

In order to model thin‐layered soils a special averaging procedure is proposed. It works with very few restrictions imposed on the constitutive equations used for individual materials. General considerations are followed by an example from open pit mining industry. Geometrical non‐linearity is considered. The proposed method is not necessarily restricted to the problems of soil mechanics. It could also be applied on composite materials. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.