Changes in the climate of the Alaskan North Slope and the ice concentration of the adjacent Beaufort Sea

A reliable data set of Arctic sea ice concentration based on satellite observations exists since 1972. Over this time period of 36 years western arctic temperatures have increased; the temperature rise varies significantly from one season to another and over multi-year time scales. In contrast to most of Alaska, however, on the North Slope the warming continued after 1976, when a circulation change occurred, as expressed in the PDO index. The mean temperature increase for Barrow over the 36-year period was 2.9°C, a very substantial change. Wind speeds increased by 18% over this time period, however, the increase were non-linear and showed a peak in the early 1990s. The sea ice extent of the Arctic Ocean has decreased strongly in recent years, and in September 2007 a new record in the amount of open water was recorded in the Western Arctic. We observed for the Southern Beaufort Sea a fairly steady increase in the mean annual amount of open water from 14% in 1972 to 39% in 2007, as deduced from the best linear fit. In late summer the decrease is much larger, and September has, on average, the least ice concentration (22%), followed by August (35%) and October (54%). The correlation coefficient between mean annual values of temperature and sea ice concentration was 0.84. On a monthly basis, the best correlation coefficient was found in October with 0.88. However, the relationship between winter temperatures and the sea ice break-up in summer was weak. While the temperature correlated well with the CO₂ concentration (r?=?0.86), the correlation coefficient between CO₂ and sea ice was lower (r?=??0.68). After comparing the ice concentration with 17 circulation indices, the best relation was found with the Pacific Circulation Index (r?=??0.59).     

Ground-water models for water resource planning

In the past decade hydrogeologists have emphasized the development of computer-based mathematical models to aid in the understanding of flow, the transport of solutes, transport of heat, and deformation in the ground-water system. These models have been used to provide information and predictions for water managers. Too frequently, ground-water was neglected in water resource planning because managers believed that it could not be adequately evaluated in terms of availability, quality, and effect of development on surface-water supplies. Now, however, with newly developed digital ground-water models, effects of development can be predicted. Such models have been used to predict hydrologic and quality changes under different stresses. These models have grown in complexity over the last ten years from simple one-layer models to three-dimensional simulations of ground-water flow, which may include solute transport, heat transport, effects of land subsidence, and encroachment of saltwater. Case histories illustrate how predictive ground-water models have provided the information needed for the sound planning and management of water resources in the USA.     

Groundwater flow and solute transport at the Mourquong saline-water disposal basin, Murray Basin, southeastern Australia

Saline groundwater and drainage effluent from irrigation are commonly stored in some 200 natural and artificial saline-water disposal basins throughout the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia. Their impact on underlying aquifers and the River Murray, one of Australia's major water supplies, is of serious concern. In one such scheme, saline groundwater is pumped into Lake Mourquong, a natural groundwater discharge complex. The disposal basin is hydrodynamically restricted by low-permeability lacustrine clays, but there are vulnerable areas in the southeast where the clay is apparently missing. The extent of vertical and lateral leakage of basin brines and the processes controlling their migration are examined using (1) analyses of chloride and stable isotopes of water (²H/¹H and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) to infer mixing between regional groundwater and lake water, and (2) the variable-density groundwater flow and solute-transport code SUTRA. Hydrochemical results indicate that evaporated disposal water has moved at least 100 m in an easterly direction and that there is negligible movement of brines in a southerly direction towards the River Murray. The model is used to consider various management scenarios. Salt-load movement to the River Murray was highest in a "worst-case" scenario with irrigation employed between the basin and the River Murray. Present-day operating conditions lead to little, if any, direct movement of brine from the basin into the river. Electronic Publication     

Particle composition and size distributions in and around a deep-pit swine operation,Ames, IA

The contribution of emissions from agricultural facilities is rapidly becoming a major concern for local and regional air quality. Characterization of particle properties such as physical size distribution and chemical composition can be valuable in understanding the processes contributing to emissions and ultimate fate of particulate matter from agricultural facilities. A measurement campaign was conducted at an Iowa, deep-pit, three-barn swine finishing facility to characterize near-source ambient particulate matter. Size-specific mass concentrations were determined using minivol samplers, with additional size distribution information obtain using optical particle counters. Particulate composition was determined via ion chromatographic analysis of the collected filters. A thermal-CO₂ elemental/organic carbon analyzer measured particulate carbon. The chemical composition and size distribution of sub-micron particles were determined via real-time aerosol mass spectrometry. Primary particulate was not found to be a major emission from the examined facility, with filter-based impactor samples showing average near-source increases (~15–50 m) in ambient PM₁₀ of 5.8 ± 2.9 μg m⁻³ above background levels. PM_2.5 also showed contribution attributable to the facility (1.7 ± 1.1 μg m⁻³). Optical particle counter analysis of the numerical size distributions showed bimodal distributions for both the upwind and downwind conditions, with maximums around 2.5 μm and below the minimum quantified diameter of 0.3 μm. The distributions showed increased numbers of coarse particles (PM₁₀) during periods when wind transport came from the barns, but the differences were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The PM₁₀ aerosols showed statistically increased concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, calcium, organic carbon, and elemental carbon when the samplers were downwind from the pig barns. Organic carbon was the major constituent of the barn-impacted particulate matter in both sub-micron (54%) and coarse size (20%) ranges. The AMS PM₁ chemical speciation showed similar species increases, with the exception of and Ca⁺², the latter not quantified by the AMS.     

Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach

Simulating the dynamics and processes within a spatially influenced retail market, such as the retail gasoline market, is a highly challenging research area. Current approaches are limited through their inability to model the impact of supplier or consumer behavior over both time and space. Agent‐based models (ABMs) provide an alternative approach that overcomes these problems. We demonstrate how knowledge of retail pricing is extended by using a ‘hybrid’ model approach: an agent model for retailers and a spatial interaction model for consumers. This allows the issue of spatial competition between individual retailers to be examined in a way only accessible to agent‐based models, allowing each model retailer autonomous control over optimizing their price. The hybrid model is shown to be successful at recreating spatial pricing dynamics at a national scale, simulating the effects of a rise in crude oil prices as well as accurately predicting which retailers were most susceptible to closure over a 10‐year period.     

The nation-state and the city: introduction to a debate

In recent years, the urban political landscape has become infused with a potent and incendiary mixture of popular-democratic, anti-globalisation, and separatist rhetoric. One central process driving this has been the problematic relations between the nation-state and the city. This Debates and Interventions forum aims to prompt a debate about where the city should be situated intellectually in respect of the nation-state. Four questions are addressed: (1) How do contemporary processes of urban development reflect changing national geopolitical priorities? (2) To what extent are struggles around immigration, citizenship and recognition conducted within cities rather than around the nation-state? (3) To what degree does the city (as e.g. a physical form, social environment or discourse) help to mobilise, propel and/or contest this new urban politics? And (4) Is the concept of a “post-national” global order appropriate for understanding the city and urban politics today?     

Habitat associations of floating debris and marine birds in the North East Pacific Ocean at coarse and meso spatial scales

While many surface foraging seabirds ingest plastic, the spatial overlap of these far-ranging predators with debris aggregations at-sea is poorly understood. We surveyed concurrent distributions of marine birds and debris along a 4400 km cruise track within a debris accumulation area in the North East Pacific Ocean using line and strip transect methods. Analysis of debris and bird distributions revealed associations with oceanographic and weather variables at two spatial scales: daily surveys and hourly transects. Hourly bird abundance (densities; 0-9 birds km⁻²) was higher in lower wind and shallower water. Hourly debris abundance (densities; 0-15,222 pieces km⁻²) was higher in lower wind, higher sea-level atmospheric pressure and deeper water. These results suggest that debris and seabird abundance and community structure are influenced by similar environmental processes, but in opposing ways, with only three far-ranging seabird species (Black-footed Albatross, Cook’s Petrel and Red-tailed Tropicbird) overlapping with high debris concentrations over meso-scales.