The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Impacts of enhanced CCN on the organization of convection and recent reduced counts of monsoon depressions

Monsoon depressions, that form during the Indian summer monsoon season (June to September) are known to be baroclinic disturbances (horizontal scale 2,000–3,000 km) and are driven by deep convection that carries a very large vertical slope towards cold air aloft in the upper troposphere. Deep convection is nearly always organized around the scale of these depressions. In the maintenance of the monsoon depression the generation of eddy kinetic energy on the scale of the monsoon depression is largely governed by the “in scale” covariance of heating and temperature and of vertical velocity and temperature over the region of the monsoon depression. There are normally about 6–8 monsoon depressions during a summer monsoon season. Recent years 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw very few (around 1, 0 and 1 per season respectively). The best numerical models such as those from ECMWF and US (GFS) carried many false alarms in their 3–5 day forecasts, more like 6–8 disturbances. Even in recent years with fewer observed monsoon depressions a much larger number of depressions is noted in ECMWF forecasts. These are fairly comprehensive models that carry vast data sets (surface and satellite based), detailed data assimilation, and are run at very high resolutions. The monsoon depression is well resolved by these respective horizontal resolutions in these models (at 15 and 35 km). These models carry complete and detailed physical parameterizations. The false alarms in their forecasts leads us to suggest that some additional important ingredient may be missing in these current best state of the art models. This paper addresses the effects of pollution for the enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei and the resulting disruption of the organization of convection in monsoon depressions. Our specific studies make use of a high resolution mesoscale model (WRF/CHEM) to explore the impacts of the first and second aerosol indirect effects proposed by Twomey and Albrecht. We have conducted preliminary studies including examination of the evolution of radar reflectivity (computed inversely from the model hydrometeors) for normal and enhanced CCN effects (arising from enhanced monsoon pollution). The time lapse histories show a major disruption in the organization of convection of the monsoon depressions on the time scale of a week to 10 days in these enhanced CCN scenarios.     

Geostrophic Adjustment Problems in a Polar Basin

The geostrophic adjustment of a homogeneous fluid in a circular basin with idealized topography is addressed using a numerical ocean circulation model and analytical process models. When the basin is rotating uniformly, the adjustment takes place via excitation of boundary propagating waves and when topography is present, via topographic Rossby waves. In the numerically derived solution, the waves are damped because of bottom friction, and a quasi-steady geostrophically balanced state emerges that subsequently spins-down on a long time scale. On the f-plane, numerical quasi-steady state solutions are attained well before the system's mechanical energy is entirely dissipated by friction. It is demonstrated that the adjusted states emerging in a circular basin with a step escarpment or a top hat ridge, centred on a line of symmetry, are equivalent to that in a uniform depth semicircular basin, for a given initial condition. These quasi-steady solutions agree well with linear analytical solutions for the latter case in the inviscid limit.

On the polar plane, the high latitude equivalent to the β-plane, no quasi-steady adjusted state emerges from the adjustment process. At intermediate time scales, after the fast Poincaré and Kelvin waves are damped by friction, the solutions take the form of steady-state adjusted solutions on the f-plane. At longer time scales, planetary waves control the flow evolution. An interesting property of planetary waves on a polar plane is a nearly zero eastward group velocity for the waves with a radial mode higher than two and the resulting formation of eddy-like small-scale barotropic structures that remain trapped near the western side of topographic features.

RÉSUMÉ?Traduit par la rédaction] Nous étudions l'ajustement géostrophique d'un fluide homogène dans un bassin circulaire ayant une topographie idéalisée à l'aide d'un modèle numérique de circulation océanique et de modèles analytiques de processus. Quand le bassin est en rotation uniforme, l'ajustement se fait par l'excitation d'ondes de propagation aux limites, et en présence de topographie, par des ondes de Rossby topographiques. Dans la solution numériquement dérivée, les ondes sont amorties à cause frottement contre le fond, et un état quasi-stable géostrophiquement équilibré s’établit pour ensuite décélérer sur une longue période de temps. Sur le plan f, les solutions numériques d’états quasi-stables sont atteintes bien avant que l’énergie du système mécanique soit entièrement dissipée par le frottement. Nous démontrons que les états ajustés apparaissant dans un bassin circulaire avec un accore en forme de marche ou une crête en forme de merlon, centrés sur une ligne de symétrie, sont équivalents à ceux d'un bassin semi-circulaire de profondeur uniforme pour une condition initiale donnée. Les solutions quasi-stables s'accordent bien avec les solutions analytiques linéaires pour le dernier cas dans la limite de la non-viscosité.

Sur le plan polaire, la haute latitude équivalente au plan β, le processus d'ajustement n'aboutit à aucun état ajusté quasi-stable. Aux échelles de temps intermédiaires, après l'amortissement des ondes rapides de Poincaré et Kelvin par le frottement, les solutions prennent la forme de solutions ajustées d’états stables sur le plan f. Aux échelles de temps plus longues, les ondes planétaires déterminent l’évolution de l’écoulement. Une propriété intéressante des ondes planétaires sur un plan polaire est une vitesse de groupe presque nulle vers l'est pour les ondes ayant un mode radial plus grand que deux et la formation résultante de structures barotropiques de petite échelle de type remous qui demeurent emprisonnées près du bord ouest des caractéristiques topographiques.     

Testing for similarity in area‐based spatial patterns: Alternative methods to Andresen's spatial point pattern test

Andresen's spatial point pattern test (SPPT) compares two spatial point patterns on defined areal units; it identifies areas where the spatial point patterns diverge and aggregates these local (dis)similarities to one global measure. We discuss the limitations of the SPPT and provide two alternative methods to calculate differences in the point patterns. In the first approach we use differences in proportions tests corrected for multiple comparisons. We show how the size of differences matters, as with large point patterns many areas will be identified by SPPT as statistically different, even if those differences are substantively trivial. The second approach uses multinomial logistic regression, which can be extended to identify differences in proportions over continuous time. We demonstrate these methods by identifying areas where pedestrian stops by the New York City Police Department are different from violent crimes for 2006–2016.     

A Framework and Software Tool to Support Collaborative Landscape Analysis: Fitting Square Pegs into Square Holes

For landscape models to be applied successfully in management situations, models must address appropriate questions, include relevant processes and interactions, be perceived as credible and involve people affected by decisions. We propose a framework for collaborative model building that can address these issues, and has its roots in adaptive management, computer‐supported collaborative work and landscape ecology. Models built through this framework integrate a variety of information sources, address relevant questions, and are customized for the particular landscape and policy environment under study. Participants are involved in the process from the start, and because their input is incorporated, they feel ownership of the resulting models, increasing the chance of model acceptance and application. There are two requirements for success: a tool that supports rapid model prototyping and modification, that makes a clear link between a conceptual and implemented model, and that has the ability to implement a wide range of model types; and a core team with skills in communication, research and analysis, and knowledge of ecology and forestry in addition to modelling. SELES (Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator) is a tool for building and running models of landscape dynamics. It combines discrete event simulation with a spatial database and a relatively simple modelling language to allow rapid development of landscape simulations, and provides a high‐level means of specifying complex model behaviours ranging from management actions to natural disturbance and succession. We have applied our framework in several forest modelling projects in British Columbia, Canada. We have found that this framework increases the interest by local experts and decision‐makers to participate actively in the model building process. The workshop process and resulting models have efficiently provided insight into the dynamics of large landscapes over long time frames. The use of SELES has facilitated this process by providing a flexible, transparent environment in which models can be rapidly implemented and refined. As a result, model findings may be more readily incorporated into decision‐support systems designed to assist resource managers in making informed decisions.     

Fast approximate EM induction modeling of metallic and UXO targets using a permeable prism

The time-domain EM induction response of non-magnetic and magnetic targets can be approximated using a conductive permeable prism composed of six faces of conductive plates, each face being composed of a set of conductive ribbons. The effect of magnetic permeability is included by the use of two “apparent flux gathering” coefficients, and two “effective magnetic permeability” coefficients, in the axial and transverse directions. These four magnetic property coefficients are a function of physical properties and geometry of the target, but are independent of prism orientation relative to a transmitter. The approximation algorithm is computationally fast, allowing inversions for target parameters to be achieved in seconds. The model is tested on profiles acquired with a Geonics EM63 time-domain EM metal detector over a non-magnetic copper pipe target, and a steel artillery shell in horizontal and vertical orientations. Results show that this approximation to a permeable prism has a capability of fitting geometric, conductivity and magnetic parameters at both early and late sample times. The magnetic parameters show strong change from early to late times on the EMI decay curve, indicating that the magnetic properties of the target have non-linear characteristics. It is proposed that these magnetic parameters and the nature of their non-linearity may carry additional discrimination information for distinguishing between intact munitions and scrap in UXO studies.     

Fluxes of uranium and thorium series isotopes in the Santa Barbara Basin

Samples from the MANOP Santa Barbara Basin sediment trap intercomparison were analyzed for the isotopes of uranium, thorium, radium, lead, and polonium. All of the traps showed approximately the same compositions and isotopic ratios, indicating that they trapped similar materials. The²³⁴Th flux via falling particles was very close to the flux predicted from the production and scavenging rates of²³⁴Th from the water column. The²¹⁰Pb content of the trapped particles and the surface sediments were the same, however, the measured flux of²¹⁰Pb was seven times greater than the predicted flux. Predicted and measured fluxes of²²⁸Th and²¹⁰Po were similarly out of balance. To explain this apparent inconsistency, we suggest (as others have done) that the Santa Barbara Basin is an area where scavenging from the water column is intensified and where sediments deposited initially on the margins may be physically remobilized on a short time scale. These two effects increase the apparent area from which the basin derives the longer-lived isotopes but does not increase significantly the supply of the short-lived²³⁴Th.     

Advances in the use of observed spatial patterns of catchment hydrological response

Over the past two decades there have been repeated calls for the collection of new data for use in developing hydrological science. The last few years have begun to bear fruit from the seeds sown by these calls, through increases in the availability and utility of remote sensing data, as well as the execution of campaigns in research catchments aimed at providing new data for advancing hydrological understanding and predictive capability. In this paper we discuss some philosophical considerations related to model complexity, data availability and predictive performance, highlighting the potential of observed patterns in moving the science and practice of catchment hydrology forward. We then review advances that have arisen from recent work on spatial patterns, including in the characterisation of spatial structure and heterogeneity, and the use of patterns for developing, calibrating and testing distributed hydrological models. We illustrate progress via examples using observed patterns of snow cover, runoff occurrence and soil moisture. Methods for the comparison of patterns are presented, illustrating how they can be used to assess hydrologically important characteristics of model performance. These methods include point-to-point comparisons, spatial relationships between errors and landscape parameters, transects, and optimal local alignment. It is argued that the progress made to date augers well for future developments, but there is scope for improvements in several areas. These include better quantitative methods for pattern comparisons, better use of pattern information in data assimilation and modelling, and a call for improved archiving of data from field studies to assist in comparative studies for generalising results and developing fundamental understanding.